Handicapping the Steelers offense for fantasy purposes

Going into the 2016 fantasy season, the Pittsburgh offense is one of the most talked about and anticipated units to watch and follow. With top fantasy draft picks in Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell, and a plethora of other skilled players, the success of the Pittsburgh offense will be a major determinant of success for numerous fantasy teams.

With such an importance placed on one team, it is worth investigating whether or not if the hype is real, and how likely Steelers skill players are to returning value relative to average draft position.

Quarterback

If healthy, Roethlisberger should eclipse 4,000 yards passing and hover around the 30-touchdown mark. Those totals make him a top-5 or top-7 QB and that's exactly where he's expected to be drafted. But Roethlisberger is a bit of a deceiving fantasy choice. Though he should finish with solid totals, how he gets there should concern potential owners.

Roethlisberger's six road starts last season resulted in a QB rating of just 86.0 and a TD to INT ratio of 5:9. His yards/game also dropped to 308.3 compared to 348 at home. Extreme splits like those can't be ignored.

Ben's game-to-game production is also an issue. Roethlisberger eclipsed 300 yards eight times last season, but failed to reach 270 on three other occasions. His game-to-game TD consistency was even more unpredictable as he threw fewer than two touchdowns in six of 12 starts.

The chart below indicates the fluctuation in Roethlisberger's fantasy output in terms his fantasy points on a game-to-game basis.

Data courtesy of NFL Fantasy.

Based on these numbers, Roethlisberger should actually be viewed as riskier option than his mid-draft ADP may indicate. If you ultimately decide to select Roethlisberger, be prepared to select a second QB in the later rounds and consider benching Big Ben in tougher matchups on the road.

Projections

Running Back

Despite being one of the biggest fantasy stars, Le'Veon Bell is being drafted as a borderline first-round pick thanks to a likely four-game suspension. Combine that with a Week 8 bye and most fantasy leagues not counting Week 17, and you're getting less than 70 percent of a fantasy season out of him.

But even with the suspension, Bell is still likely to finish as a top fantasy back relative to weeks played, and he'll be an even bigger asset in PPR leagues. What drafters should consider with Bell is whether or not they will be able to make it to the playoffs despite his four-game suspension, and how they will go about drafting RBs in the successive rounds.

For those that draft Bell, it's imperative to find a capable third running back to fill the void in the first four weeks, and as a safety valve should the oft-injured star sustain another injury. Targets should include Jeremy Langford, Rashad Jennings, and Danny Woodhead.

For Steelers backup DeAngelo Williams, four games as a guaranteed starter - combined with last year's production in Bell's extended absence - have forced his ADP skyward.

Prior to news of Bell's suspension, Williams was projected to go in the eighth or ninth round but is now being taken in the sixth. This ADP puts him in the pool of the three RBs mentioned above (Langford, Jennings, and Woodhead).

So with an ADP steadily creeping into starter territory, should drafters be eyeing Williams at his projected ADP? In short: No. While an initial four games of productivity and handcuff appeal is tempting, drafting a starter like the names above will provide owners with 16 possible games of functionality and what will most likely be a greater overall fantasy output at season's end.

Projections

Bell's projections account for 12 games. Williams' projections account for four starts and 12 games as a backup.

Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown is projected to be the top overall pick in standard and PPR leagues; there isn't much to write about the top-tier receiver. In his last 16 games with Roethlisberger at quarterback, Brown has 152 catches for 2,039 yards. He could break records this year.

The real question with Pittsburgh's receiving corps is what happens after Brown. With Martavis Bryant suspended for the entire year, the WR2 position is seemingly up for grabs. The two main competitors, and the two that should battle for the position throughout the season, are sophomore Sammie Coates and fourth-year pro Markus Wheaton.

At the moment, Wheaton should be viewed as the odds on favorite to lineup across from Brown due to his 48 games of NFL experience and a respectable 2015 campaign, which resulted in 749 yards and five touchdowns. Wheaton's ADP currently sits at 115 as the WR44, with Coates at 156 as the WR54.

Though Coates could turn into a nice WR3/4 and can be drafted in the late rounds, he might easily become a droppable asset early on. Coates has just one NFL catch to his name and is attempting to work himself into a unit that functions effectively with the trio of Roethlisberger, Bell, and Brown.

Projections

Tight End

With TE Ladarius Green dealing with health issues, the tight end position in Pittsburgh is one of the most interesting situations in fantasy. Green, whom the Steelers signed in the off-season, is reportedly dealing with headaches stemming from numerous concussions and might be forced into retirement.

Prior to the health concerns, Green was being drafted in the eighth or ninth round and looked like a nice value pick once the top-tier of TEs had gone. Now, that ADP has fallen into the 10th and 11th rounds.

For those drafting in the near future or those likely to draft before a clear consensus comes to light regarding Green's health, the best strategy with the enigmatic tight end is to fade him entirely. Even now at his lowered ADP, drafting Green will cost you a pick that could be used on an RB3/4 or WR3/4 with legitimate upside.

In extremely deep leagues, TE Jesse James, Green's likely replacement, can be targeted. James, a 22-year old sophomore out of Penn State, played in eight games last year, finishing with 56 receiving yards and a lone touchdown. If given the starting role, James will be a product of a successful system rather than a major contributor to it.

Projections

Defense

On paper, the Steelers defense isn't that impressive. For those that don't follow defensive players too closely, the notable names left include James Harrison, Lawrence Timmons, and William Gay. But the Steelers defense has quietly been undergoing a youth movement, using five of its previous six first-round picks on defensive players.

The names that now make up the Steel Curtain include Cameron Heyward, Jarvis Jones, Ryan Shazier, Bud Dupree, and 2016's first-rounder Artie Burns.

Despite the overhaul, the Steelers still finished seventh in fantasy points last season, totaling 48 sacks, 17 interceptions, and 13 fumble recoveries.

With no significant additions outside of Burns, fantasy players should be expecting similar results from the Pittsburgh defense as head coach Mike Tomlin and defensive coordinator Keith Butler will keep in them in form.

Draft-wise, the Steelers defense isn't likely to be selected due to the lack of notoriety and a mediocre track record over recent years. Like many team defenses, they will be a streaming option against weak opponents.

Projections

All ADP data courtesy of FantasyPros.