High hopes and low expectations: ADP risers (and fallers) from '15 to '16

With the exception of obvious names like Todd Gurley, David Johnson or Julio Jones, certain players' fantasy stock made a huge leap from 2015 to 2016. Conversely, some highly-regarded options from last season have seen their average draft positions (ADP) fall off in a big way.

We'll look at the factors that led to the respective rise or fall in profile, and consider whether each player is being overvalued or undervalued (2016 ADPs courtesy FantasyPros; 2015 ADPs courtesy ESPN):

The risers

WR Doug Baldwin, Seahawks

2015 ADP: 199
Current ADP: 46

Largely undrafted in 10-team formats in 2015, Baldwin jumps up the rankings after setting career highs in receptions (78), yards (1,069) and touchdowns (14). The TD total in itself is staggering; he had scored just 15 times over his previous four seasons combined.

Injuries have never been a concern for Baldwin, as he has missed just two of a possible 80 games, and he should continue to be QB Russell Wilson's favorite target. Still, if his touchdown total comes down to earth, he could be a disappointment considering where he's being drafted. In 2014, Baldwin had a respectable 66 catches for 825 yards, but scored just three TDs.

RB Dion Lewis, Patriots

2015 ADP: 138
Current ADP: 56

Another of the Patriots' out-of-nowhere contributors, Lewis averaged 88.9 combined rushing and receiving yards per game while scoring four touchdowns. Unfortunately, he only featured in seven contests before hitting the IR in November with a knee injury.

Injuries have been the story of Lewis' career - after playing in 24 games in 2011 and 2012 with the Eagles, he didn't suit up again until last season. Given that there's still the possibility he opens 2016 on the physically unable to perform list, he's a risk despite the relative scarcity of quality running backs.

Lewis also isn't quite as useful in standard-scoring leagues. He averaged just over five receptions per game in 2015, so he's primarily a passing-down back and is thus much more of an asset in PPR formats.

TE Coby Fleener, Saints

2015 ADP: 273
Current ADP: 73

Fleener's dramatic rise in profile doesn't have anything to do with his 2015 production - he recorded a modest 54-491-3 receiving line as a Colt. It's due to his move to the high-powered Saints offense, where 12-year-veteran Benjamin Watson registered a career-best 74-825-6 receiving line in replacing Jimmy Graham at the tight end position last season.

While he seems overvalued, it could be argued that Fleener represents a safer selection that some of the six tight ends being selected ahead of him. Having played 60 of a possible 62 career games, he has a much cleaner injury record than either Jordan Reed or Tyler Eifert, and he plays in a more fantasy-friendly offense than Travis Kelce.

While his 2015 production didn't jump off the page, Fleener averaged a career-best 15.2 yards per catch in 2014, totaling 51 receptions and eight touchdowns. If nothing else, he should approach Watson's totals.

The fallers

RB C.J. Anderson, Broncos

2015 ADP: 7
Current ADP: 34

Despite averaging an identical 4.7 yards per carry in 2015 from the season before, Anderson totaled under 1,000 combined rushing and receiving yards and scored just five times. QB Peyton Manning's dramatic decline helped bring down an attack that ranked fourth in total offense in 2014; last year's eventual Super Bowl champions finished 16th in total yards.

Being drafted as a complementary running back instead of a main option should better suit Anderson's production; it's hard to imagine the Broncos' offense being much improved with Mark Sanchez or either of the inexperienced Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch at QB.

WR Randall Cobb, Packers

2015 ADP: 19
Current ADP: 39

Expected to be Green Bay's top receiving threat in the season-long absence of Jordy Nelson, Cobb instead recorded fewer catches, yards and TDs in 2015 than the season before, despite seeing three more targets.

Cobb, a slot receiver, clearly benefited from the attention given to Nelson on the outside, so with his high-profile teammate back in the lineup, a return to form could be in order for the soon-to-be 26-year-old. QB Aaron Rodgers also struggled without Nelson, throwing for 560 fewer passing yards than in 2014 and recording a career-worst 60.7 percent completion rate.

At Cobb's ADP, he arguably represents a safer selection than some of the receivers being taken ahead of him, namely Demaryius Thomas, Julian Edelman and a back-from-injury Kelvin Benjamin.

TE Jimmy Graham, Seahawks

2015 ADP: 32
Current ADP: 110

It seems appropriate to list Graham here, as both a teammate (Baldwin) and a successor in New Orleans (Fleener) are risers, and Graham recorded his lowest across-the-board production in his first year as a Seahawk since his 2010 rookie campaign.

Graham's 4.36 receptions per game in Seattle wasn't that far off from the 4.95 mark he averaged over his five seasons as a Saint, but he scored just two touchdowns in 11 contests. He had previously never had fewer than five TDs in a single year, and had recorded between nine and 16 scores each season from 2011 through 2014.

According to NFLsavant's red zone target data, just three of Graham's 10 targets inside the 20-yard-line were completions, with one going for a TD. On a per-game basis, Graham averaged just under one red zone target per game; Baldwin led the Seahawks in averaging one such target per game. Ten of Baldwin's 16 targets were completions, with seven going for scores.

For Graham's fantasy value to rebound, he'll need to be a bigger factor near the goal line, where Baldwin seems to have established himself as the preferred target. At least Graham can be had much later in fantasy drafts in 2016, and thus carries less risk.