Do elite fantasy quarterbacks play for winning NFL teams?

The popularization of daily fantasy football has created two schools of thought when it comes to selecting a quarterback in any given week and matchup. One theory is to pick a quarterback from a good team, as this team will win as a result of putting up more points than its respective opponent.

The other common theory is to select a quarterback from a team projected to lose. Once his team begins to trail the QB will be relied on more heavily, leading to more projected scores as the team tries for quick scores in an effort to mount a come back while conserving time.

Do either of these theories factor into season-long quarterback performance? Let's look back at the performance of QB1s from the past three seasons and compare their results with their respective teams' record and projected win total from the preseason (ADPs courtesy MyFantasyLeague.com):

2015

While the projected win totals for the Panthers, Patriots and Cardinals may have seemed low even at the time, the Redskins and Jets greatly exceeded expectations, with their respective QB's playing a major role. Only five of the 12 teams featuring a top-12 QB in 2015 surpassed their projection.

Carolina, New England and Arizona were the top three teams in average margin of victory last season, while the Redskins, Giants, Lions, Saints, Jaguars and Chargers all had negative margins.

2014

Eight of 12 teams exceeded their win total, including the four teams with the highest margin of victory in the Patriots, Seahawks, Packers and Broncos. The Giants, Saints, Falcons and Bears all finished with negative scoring margins.

2013

Nine of the 12 teams surpassed expectation, with the 12-4 Panthers having the most impressive season relative to projection. Seven of the nine teams ranked inside the top eight in point differential, with the Falcons' minus-5.6 differential ranking 25th in the league.

In total, 22 of the past 36 top-12 quarterbacks played for teams which exceeded their preseason expectation. While prognostication is a difficult game to play, tying your fantasy selection to a team you expect to fare better than others can be a good place to find value.

Of the 11 QBs selected beyond the 100th-overall pick who finished as a top-12 performer in the three-year span, all but three played for a team which improved upon expectations. The three who didn't - Bortles (2015), Manning (2014), and Roethlisberger (2013) - played in pass-happy offenses, with the Jaguars ranking second in 2015 and the Steelers ranking eighth in 2013.

Bortles and Manning played for teams which were outscored, while Roethlisberger's Steelers finished with a measly plus-0.6 point differential.

Quarterback selection should be based on expected team performance. There is a strong correlation between safety in QBs and projected win totals. When looking to fade the position in drafts, look for value in those playing on teams who are being underrated in Las Vegas and by your peers.