Why the Denver Broncos offense should be avoided in fantasy

It isn't often that fantasy football fans are told to stay away from the offensive lynch pins of the defending Super Bowl champions. Then again, few defending champs face as many question marks as the Denver Broncos.

Let's start at quarterback, where veteran Mark Sanchez and 2015 seventh-round pick Trevor Siemian are currently listed as co-starters. That should be enough to explain why you can't trust this offense. Denver spent a 2016 first-round pick on QB Paxton Lynch, but he is listed as the third QB and is expected to redshirt in his rookie season.

Regardless of the uncertainty at the most important position in all of sports, Broncos skill position players are still being drafted fairly high in fantasy drafts thus far (ADP courtesy of FantasyPros):

The Wide Receivers

As the WR16, Thomas is being drafted as a mid-to-high-end WR2 in the third round of standard leagues. He averaged just five catches on 68 yards over the last nine games of the regular season in 2015. He is extremely talented and has a track record of production, but the QBs passing him the ball can't be overlooked.

Obviously there is no history for Siemian, but here is how Sanchez's top fantasy WR finished over his four seasons as a starter with the Jets:

Clearly none of these players are of the caliber of receiver that Thomas is, but the case could be made that some of these players are more sure-handed possession receivers (Thomas has finished fifth, first, eighth, fifth in dropped passes over the past four seasons). It is no fluke that none of the receivers listed above had a catch rate above 60 percent with Sanchez at QB.

Gary Kubiak runs a much different offense than Brian Shottenheimer and Tony Sparano did, but those expecting more than 70 catches, 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns out of Thomas will likely be disappointed.

Other WRs being taken below Thomas' ADP include T.Y. Hilton (WR17, Kelvin Benjamin (WR18) and Jeremy Maclin (WR23). All three of these players are the No. 1 WRs on offenses with much better QBs.

As for Sanders, he will likely only be able to return value to his ADP if there were an injury to Thomas, which is impossible to predict. If you think Sanchez-led offenses punished WR1s, wait until you see the WR2s:

Again, Sanders is a much better receiver than an over-the-hill Burress and a rookie who never panned out in Hill. But those hoping more than 800 yards and six touchdowns from Sanders likely won't have their expectations met.

Other pass catchers being taken after Sanders' ADP include John Brown (WR30), Donte Moncrief (WR32) and Tyler Lockett (WR35). All of these players are secondary receiving options, but play in much more WR-friendly offenses with better QBs.

The Broncos will be without a few pieces from their unbelievable 2015 defense, but it will certainly still be strong enough that garbage time (a WR owners dream) will be few and far between.

Kubiak will also likely have the offense milk the clock as much as possible when they have the ball and rely on their defense to win them games. This will lead to fewer plays run and less fantasy production as a whole - especially from the WRs in a run-heavy attack.

The Running Backs

Personally, I'm actually a huge fan of Anderson's running style. He's also a great fit for Kubiak's zone-run, play-action bootleg scheme, which I also favor. However, there are two main reasons why avoiding Anderson in the third and fourth rounds (where he's projected to go) is a smart move.

Kubiak seems to love Ronnie Hillman. Anderson struggled mightily in the early going of last season, but he bounced back and piled up 396 rushing yards (6.4 yards per carry) in the final six weeks of the regular season.

This production still wasn't enough for Kubiak to fully hand the starting job back to Anderson. He failed to receive more than 15 carries in a game all season, sharing backfield touches with Hillman.

Anderson is listed as the top back on the depth chart, but don't be surprised if he's on a short leash in favor of Hillman, and rookie tailback Devontae Booker, who has impressed in training camp thus far.

At Anderson's ADP as the RB14 taken off the board, you're better off drafting someone like Latavius Murray (RB17) or Jonathan Stewart (RB20), both of whom face less competition for their starting jobs. Then, you can take Hillman or Booker in the later rounds as a handcuff.

The second concerning part about drafting Anderson, or Thomas and Sanders for that matter, is the question marks surrounding the offensive line. Here is how their projected starting unit graded according to Pro Football Focus' player grading system in 2015:

The grading systems are out of 100. Paradis was listed as an "average starter", Okung as a "below average starter". Garcia was considered a "backup" quality lineman, while Sambrailo and Stephenson were pegged as "below replacement".

The positive that can be taken away from this offensive line is that the left side (where most of Kubiak's running plays will go) graded as average-above average in the running game.

Overall, this unit has the potential to be so bad, that it could hold back the entire offense from being productive. It only makes matters worse that Sanchez, who has a career completion percentage of 56.7 and 84 interceptions in 72 career starts, is likely the best option at QB.