Does it really matter which teams your running backs come from?
A long-held belief in fantasy football draft strategy has been to select top running backs from the top NFL teams. This makes sense for obvious reasons, as these running backs will benefit from positive game scripts and their respective team's tendencies to build leads and run out the clock en route to victories.
This was not the case in 2015, a year in which the running back landscape was ravaged by injuries and depth chart turnover. Can 2015 be used as the learning tool as we move toward the 2016 draft season, or should owners remain focused on the once tried and true method of RB drafting?
Here are the top-12 running backs from 2015 with their standard-scoring end of season fantasy points. They are shown with their team's end of season record as well as the projected win total from the beginning of the season:
2015
| RB | Fan. Points | Team | Record | Proj. Ws |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 247 | ATL | 8-8 | 8.5 |
| Adrian Peterson | 237 | MIN | 11-5 | 7.5 |
| Doug Martin | 209 | TB | 6-10 | 6 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 193 | PIT | 10-6 | 8.5 |
| Todd Gurley | 189 | STL | 7-9 | 8 |
| Lamar Miller | 187 | MIA | 6-10 | 8.5 |
| Chris Ivory | 177 | NYJ | 10-6 | 7.5 |
| David Johnson | 176 | ARI | 13-3 | 8.5 |
| Matt Forte | 171 | CHI | 6-10 | 7 |
| Latavius Murray | 166 | OAK | 7-9 | 5.5 |
| Frank Gore | 165 | IND | 8-8 | 10.5 |
| Danny Woodhead | 163 | SD | 4-12 | 8 |
Just four of the top-12 RBs (the RB1s) from 2015 played for a team which finished the season with a winning record. Only three played for a playoff team. Five of the teams outperformed their preseason win projections.
There are exceptions from this group. Eight of Freeman's 14 total touchdowns and two of his four 100-yard rushing games came during Atlanta's five-game win streak to open the season.
Woodhead collected 69.2 percent of his total yardage and six of his nine total touchdowns through the air. Two of his three rushing touchdowns came in the Chargers 33-28 Week 1 victory over the Detroit Lions. He didn't score in either of the Chargers next two wins last season, before scoring his third rushing touchdown and three of his receiving touchdowns in a 30-14 beat down of the Miami Dolphins.
Of the 12 playoff teams from last season, five ranked in the top 10 in total rushing yards in the regular season. Five of the 12 running backs from the above list played for a top-10 rushing team.
Looking further back to 2014 and 2013, this looks even more like an anomaly:
2014
| RB | Fan. Points | Team | Record | Proj. Ws |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 304 | DAL | 12-4 | 8 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 288 | PIT | 11-5 | 9 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 269 | SEA | 12-4 | 11 |
| Matt Forte | 245 | CHI | 5-11 | 8.5 |
| Arian Foster | 235 | HOU | 9-7 | 8.5 |
| Eddie Lacy | 235 | GB | 12-4 | 10 |
| Jamaal Charles | 216 | KC | 9-7 | 8 |
| Justin Forsett | 201 | BAL | 10-6 | 8.5 |
| Lamar Miller | 191 | MIA | 8-8 | 7.5 |
| Jeremy Hill | 188 | CIN | 10-5-1 | 9 |
| LeSean McCoy | 177 | PHI | 10-6 | 6.5 |
| C.J. Anderson | 177 | DEN | 12-4 | 11 |
A stark contrast to 2015 under much more normal circumstances. Just two RB1s played for teams with records of .500 or worse. Seven played for a playoff team. Eleven of the 12 teams outperformed their preseason projection.
Of these backs, only Murray, Lacy, Miller, Hill and Anderson could be considered to have had a healthy 2015 season, though nagging injuries and other encumbrances led to disappointing seasons.
2013
| RB | Fan. Points | Team | Record | Proj. Ws |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 312 | KC | 11-5 | 7.5 |
| LeSean McCoy | 281 | PHI | 10-6 | 7.5 |
| Matt Forte | 265 | CHI | 8-8 | 8.5 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 241 | SEA | 13-3 | 10.5 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 237 | DEN | 13-3 | 11.5 |
| Adrian Peterson | 210 | MIN | 5-10-1 | 7.5 |
| Eddie Lacy | 210 | GB | 8-7-1 | 10.5 |
| DeMarco Murray | 207 | DAL | 8-8 | 8.5 |
| Chris Johnson | 202 | TEN | 7-9 | 6.5 |
| Reggie Bush | 193 | DET | 7-9 | 8 |
| Fred Jackson | 188 | BUF | 6-10 | 6.5 |
| Ryan Mathews | 186 | SD | 9-7 | 7.5 |
Much more of a middle ground in 2013, with six of the 12 RB1s playing for a team which finished at .500 or worse. Six were on a playoff team. Six outperformed their projection.
In total, 20 of the teams with RB1s over the past three seasons finished with a winning record, while 16 finished at .500 or worse. Sixteen of the 36 qualified for the postseason in the respective season of producing an RB1; and 22 of the 36 teams outperformed their preseason win projection.
Plenty has been written about the skewed running back data from 2015 and how the results are not so much a trend as a result of the volatility of the position. What 2015 did show us which is worth considering moving forward is the sheer amount of risk posed to all running backs, including the position's most elite players.
Running back drafting should focus on skill and opportunity over team quality. Even bad teams will have quality stretches, like the 2015 Falcons, and teams like the Chargers will be forced to pass often, lending to quality seasons from pass-catching running backs.
Strength of schedule and quality of the offensive line are other factors to take into account prior to considering projected win/loss totals.