Fantasy Basketball Faceoff: Kyle Lowry vs. John Wall
Follow theScore's fantasy feed on Twitter (@theScoreFantasy) for the latest news, features and more.
Here's a look at whether fantasy basketball owners would be better off selecting Toronto Raptors PG Kyle Lowry or Washington Wizards PG John Wall in 2016 drafts:
2015 Stats
| PLAYER | PTS | AST | REB | STL | FG% | 3PG% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lowry | 21.2 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 42.7 | 38.8 | 81.1 |
| J. Wall | 19.9 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 42.4 | 35.1 | 79.1 |
The Case for Lowry
Lowry had a career year in 2015-16, posting highs in points and steals, while tying his career-high in assists. Lowry accomplished all this in efficient fashion, ranking fourth in True Shooting Percentage and fifth in Player Efficiency Rating among qualified point guards.
The biggest difference for Lowry, as it has been the past three seasons, has been his focus on the long ball. Lowry averaged a career-high 7.1 3-point attempts per game and a career-high in makes with 2.8, ultimately shooting 38.8 percent from beyond-the-arch (another career-high).
Despite the improved efficiency, no player is without flaw. For Lowry, 2016-17 will mark his 11th season and see him turn 31. Fantasy players that stress over age and declining production will be worried that this phase of Lowry's career is looming, though it doesn't seem imminent.
Best-Case Scenario: All fantasy players can really ask for is a replica of 2015-16. Given Lowry's consistent progression, expecting averages of 18-20 points, five to seven assists, and another campaign of efficient shooting actually seems quiet likely.
Worst-Case Scenario: Age and health issues start to take a toll on Lowry. Having averaged over 30 minutes per game in five of his past six seasons, Lowry's health is worth monitoring. A drop in shooting percentages and output is also possible considering the numerous career highs set last season.
The Case for Wall
As a guard, averaging a double-double is a rare feat. Only four guards did so last season and only two have done it for back-to-back years - Chris Paul and Wall. He's is a lock to be a late-first to early-second round pick.
Though Wall isn't a 3-point specialist, he made some improvements in the long ball department, averaging 4.3 attempts last year and shooting 35.1% from beyond the arc. Both marks were career highs and should hold steady with today's NBA demanding 3-point shooting from the backcourt.
Unlike Lowry, Wall's shooting efficiency hasn't seen much improvement over recent years. Last season actually marked Wall's lowest field goal percentage, 2-point field goal percentage, and true shooting percentage since 2011-12. Ultimately, he's a volume producer rather than an efficient one.
Best-Case Scenario: Wall shows improvement in his overall marksmanship and continues to flesh out his 3-point ability. Aside from these minor issues, there isn't much else to improve on for a guard that produces nearly 20 points and 10 assists a game.
Worst-Case Scenario: Wall continues to post mediocre shooting percentages and sinks below the double-double average he's provided the past two years. Considering his skill set, however, any drop in production is likely to be minor.
Verdict
Sacrifice the improvements in efficiency for a greater seasonal output of assists and double-doubles, with the hope that Wall continues to expand his range. Shooters can be found throughout the season, but double-doubles from the guard position are just too rare to pass on.
If your league uses advanced efficiency metrics or rewards efficiency over volume than this verdict could flip. Lowry's style of play is more conducive in those respects and he will come at a slightly cheaper price, likely a mid-to-late second-round choice.