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Going heavy at WR - and the tiers and players to take you there

Andy Lyons / Getty Images Sport / Getty

One increasingly popular draft strategy is to load up on wide receivers in the first six rounds. That means going with five WRs and one RB in those rounds while saving the other positions for later.

The thought process is that wide receivers tend to produce value much closer to their relative draft positions than running backs, thereby making them safer choices overall.

Draft placement will determine who is available at specific draft positions. The important thing for you is to enter each round with an idea of who should be available. While ADP is an important tool, it's not gospel - and you shouldn't shy away from a name you want in the second round just because he's generally going in the third.

Remember, your aim is to take a lot of wide receivers. For this plan to work, you can't waver or give into temptation when a receiver you had your eye on was plucked a pick or two before yours. This strategy requires commitment.

The usual suspects of Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham and Julio Jones are the top three off the board. They're obvious choices for those drafting early. For those in the middle or end of round one, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green and Dez Bryant are going anywhere from seventh to 12th.

Do not go into auto-pilot. Keep an eye on who may be available after pick one and be prepared to drop to the next group if all six mentioned are taken before your first pick comes around to you. There is a sea change afoot where running backs are universally being valued less, so this strategy may seem difficult in the first round, especially if Todd Gurley is staring you in the face.

Current Average Draft Position

According to FantasyFootballCalculator's most recent data, the following wide receivers are going in the first seven rounds of most standard 12-team drafts. Consider this chart as a guide of when you can reasonably expect these players to be drafted. There will obviously be some variation depending on your league, but it's a start.

NAME ADP ROUND BYE WEEK
Antonio Brown (PIT) Early 1st 8
Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) Early 1st 11
Julio Jones (ATL) Early 1st 11
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) Mid-Late 1st 9
A.J. Green (CIN) Late 1st 9
Dez Bryant (DAL) Late 1st 6
Allen Robinson (JAX) Early 2nd 5
Brandon Marshall (NYJ) Early-Mid 2nd 11
Jordy Nelson (GB) Early-Mid 2nd 4
Mike Evans (TB) Late 2nd 6
Keenan Allen (SD) Late 2nd 10
Amari Cooper (OAK) Late 2nd 6
Alshon Jeffery (CHI) Early 3rd 7
Brandin Cooks (NO) Early 3rd 5
T.Y. Hilton (IND) Mid-3rd 10
Demaryius Thomas (DEN Mid-Late 3rd 11
Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) Mid 3rd 7
Sammy Watkins (BUF) Late 3rd 10
Randall Cobb (GB) Early 4th 4
Jarvis Landry (MIA) Early 4th 8
Julian Edelman (NE) Mid 4th 9
Jeremy Maclin (KC) Late 4th 9
Golden Tate (DET) Late 4th 10
Doug Baldwin (SEA) Late 4th 9
Michael Floyd (ARI) Early 5th 9
Eric Decker (NYJ) Mid 5th 11
Donte Moncrief (IND) Late 5th 10
Allen Hurns (JAX) Early 6th 5
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) Early 6th 9
Josh Gordon (CLE) Early 6th 13
Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) Late 6th 11
John Brown (ARI) Early 7th 9
Jordan Matthews (PHI) Early 7th 8
Tyler Lockett (SEA) Mid 7th 9
DeVante Parker (MIA) Late 7th 8

By comparison, here is the list for PPR, which includes a few more names and several from standard see their ADPs shoot up. Becoming an ever more popular format, it changes draft outlook slightly, but enough that it's worth noting.

NAME ADP (ROUND) BYE WEEK
Antonio Brown Early 1st 8
Julio Jones (ATL) Early 1st 11
Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) Early 1st 11
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) Mid 1st 9
A.J. Green (CIN) Mid-Late 1st 9
Allen Robinson (JAX) Late 1st 5
Dez Bryant (DAL) Late 1st 6
Brandon Marshall (NYJ) Early 2nd 11
Keenan Allen (SD) Early 2nd 10
Jordy Nelson (GB) Early-Mid 2nd 4
Mike Evans (TB) Mid-Late 2nd 6
Amari Cooper (OAK) Late 2nd 6
Brandin Cooks (NO) Late 2nd 5
Alshon Jeffery (CHI) Late 2nd 7
T.Y. Hilton (IND) Early 3rd 10
Demaryius Thomas (DEN) Early 3rd 11
Jarvis Landry (MIA) Early 3rd 8
Sammy Watkins (BUF) Mid 3rd 10
Randall Cobb (GB) Late 3rd 4
Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) Late 3rd 7
Julian Edelman (NE) Late 3rd 9
Golden Tate (DET) Early 4th 10
Jeremy Maclin (KC) Mid 4th 9
Eric Decker (NYJ) Late 4th 11
Donte Moncrief (IND) Late 4th 10
Doug Baldwin (SEA) Late 4th 9
Michael Floyd (ARI) Early 5th 9
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) Mid 5th 9
Jordan Matthews (PHI) Late 5th 8
Josh Gordon (CLE) Early 6th 13
Allen Hurns (JAX) Early 6th 5
Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) Mid 6th 11
John Brown (ARI) Late 6th 9
Tyler Lockett (SEA) Early 7th 9
DeVante Parker (MIA) Mid 7th 8
Michael Crabtree (OAK) Late 7th 6
Sterling Shepard (NYG) Late 7th 11
Marvin Jones (DET) Late 7th 10

By knowing if a player is, on average, going in the early, middle, or late portion of their respective rounds, it allows for reaching in reasonable fashion. For example, if you're drafting late in Round 1, you are drafting early in Round 2. Taking Dez Bryant late in the first means lining up anyone from Robinson to Hilton as your second-round pick.

The reasoning is it's unlikely that Hilton will still be available when it gets back to your pick near the end of the third round. Conventional wisdom suggests going with a receiver with a second round ADP, but if you think Hilton could be in for a massive season, and you're drafting a load of WRs anyway, the reach is justifiable.

Looking at those names, you'll have to determine groupings of who you want. There are 35 players (38 in PPR), and you're looking at grabbing five of them. Where you break for a running back is your choice. A bold move would be the first round before running the table in five straight. If Gurley is there for the taking, it might be worth it.

Sample Scenarios

Here's a chart of options considering bye weeks, running backs available, and draft placement. The four starting scenarios are first overall pick, early round one, middle round one, and late round-one. Variables will be present:

SCENARIO RECEIVERS TARGETED RUNNING BACK TARGETED (ROUND)
FIRST OVERALL Brown-Cooper-Hilton-Maclin-Gordon Dion Lewis or Jeremy Langford (4th)
Early 1st J. Jones-Allen-Cooks-Baldwin-Decker Melvin Gordon or Duke Johnson (6th)
Mid-1st Marshall-Hilton-Edelman-Hurns-Matthews Todd Gurley or David Johnson (1st)
Late 1st Bryant-Nelson-Watkins-Landry-Sanders Ryan Mathews or Melvin Gordon (5th)

In several scenarios, this appears to leave owners precariously thin at RB, but 2015 showed that trusting running backs early is itself a dubious angle. Only Adrian Peterson wound up being remotely worth his ADP in 2015 among first-round RB selections while better value was found in subsequent rounds.

As reliable as WRs can be, you can be certain that some will bust. The more top talent drafted at the position, the easier it will be to fill in the blanks. It will also provide an easier path to trades down the road.

While the players you select will largely depend on research and availability, the strategy represents a seemingly extreme deviation from the norm, but it's really just re-allocating draft targets.

Even though QBs are the top scorers in fantasy every year, there are enough of them to go around. There's far less scoring deviation between Cam Newton and later round selections Philip Rivers and Tony Romo than there is between Antonio Brown and a receiver taken around the same slot as Rivers or Romo like Minnesota's Stefon Diggs or Cleveland's Corey Coleman.

This strategy takes the general focus of WRs above all else to its logical extreme. One way would be to go the opposite direction to pinpoint opportunity at other positions. This strategy instead focuses on doubling and tripling down on the WR approach. It has its risks, like any other, but it could bring top rewards.

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