Separating success in fantasy and reality

Fantasy sports is based 100 percent on players' statistical output. In football, this will ignore game managers and chain-movers if their scoring is lackluster. Likewise, fantasy sports typically rewards big-play behavior even if the player offers little in the way of stability.

Listed below are six players, three of whom are more valuable to their real-world teams, and three of whom are of greater interest in fantasy. Obviously, the O-line will be categorically omitted. While its work can contribute to offensive success at various positions, its statistics don't translate directly. So it goes for the under-appreciated offensive linemen. Raise a glass.

Players with more real-life value

QB Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs

Smith had a career high in passing yards in 2015 - fantastic news for the 10-year veteran. The problem is that career high was 3,486 yards, good for 20th in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 3,938 yards in only 12 games. Andy Dalton was only a couple hundred yards behind in 13 games. Smith is not a fantasy darling.

But Smith is extremely efficient and accurate. He's smart. He doesn't make bad passes that often. In three seasons with the Chiefs, he has thrown only 20 interceptions. What he lacks in arm strength, he makes up for in consistency. It's entirely possible that he goes undrafted in most standard leagues, but he'll deliver exactly what Kansas City needs.

RB Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals

Bernard certainly has fantasy value, and he's being drafted with regularity as a handcuff to Bengals starting tailback Jeremy Hill. His truest value lies in the depth he provides Cincinnati's backfield and the offense in general. He's multifaceted as a player, able to both run and catch, but has lacked the sheer volume to be a top fantasy running back in standard formats.

He also saw his red-zone success dwindle in 2015. Hill was used more often and was the scoring option the Bengals favored. Hill rushed for 10 TDs from within the 20-yard-line compared to Bernard's two, and Hill was almost always the choice inside the five. Losing out on TDs seriously limits Bernard in fantasy if Cincinnati deploys a similarly-styled attack in 2016.

If PPR is your game, Bernard will see his fantasy value jump. Otherwise, he's merely a depth option in standard leagues.

CB Richard Sherman, Seattle Seahawks

Only in Sherman's best statistical season did he crack the leaderboards of IDP scoring formats. In 2012, he was a part of 64 tackles, forced three fumbles, and picked off eight passes, returning one for a touchdown. While his interception numbers have been down over the past two seasons, and he had a career-low 33 solo tackles in 2015, he's still been a defensive presence.

While he had a career low in solo tackles, he added 17 assists, a career high. Maybe he lost a step, or maybe he didn't. Sherman is one of the smartest defensive backs in the league and his high level of play is often downplayed for non-football reasons - people don't like that he's outspoken and brash. He just isn't a lock to be successful in fantasy.

Players with more fantasy value

K Cairo Santos, Kansas City Chiefs

In 2015, Santos was emblematic of why kickers are flawed in fantasy. He tied for fifth among all kickers with 30 field goals made, but also had one of the worst field goal percentages in the NFL at 81.1 percent. He missed seven times. Granted, four of those were of the over-50-yard variety, but still. Santos also missed three extra-point attempts.

Still, his value was consistent due to volume. The misses cost the Chiefs more than they cost fantasy owners, and thus he provided a relatively positive impact in fantasy.

QB Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

Bortles was one of the top fantasy options at QB in 2015 with 4,428 passing yards and 35 touchdowns - one shy of the NFL lead. The problem was efficiency. He threw 18 interceptions, good for most in the NFL. As well, only Titans rookie QB Marcus Mariota lost more fumbles (six) than Bortles (five).

While the tide could be changing as the Jaguars improve, Bortles was a far more valuable commodity to fantasy owners than he was to the 5-11 Jaguars in 2015. His counting numbers were gold in fantasy, enough to make Bortles a top-five option at the position - largely buoyed by his 310 rushing yards.

In reality, would you rather have Bortles or Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers? Bortles outperformed him in fantasy. How about Saints QB Drew Brees? Bortles' value may have been a mirage, as the bulk of his TDs came with the Jaguars playing from behind. If the rest of the team improves and he becomes more efficient, his value may flip.

Philadelphia Eagles D/ST

The Eagles, for the second consecutive season, finished in the top 10 in defense/special teams fantasy scoring despite also being in the top 10 in points allowed both seasons. The Eagles have done a great job in the last two seasons of scoring through D/ST, with 18 combined touchdowns between kick/punt returns and turnovers.

But no one would refer to the Eagles as an elite real-life defensive unit. This team allowed 412 points in 2015 and 382 in 2014. The fantasy value has certainly been there, but it is not a reliable indicator of true quality.