Skip to content

What to expect from aging superstars

Jeff Gross / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The older NFL players get, the more akin to playing with fire they become as fantasy options. The physicality of the sport takes its toll and few careers last beyond a few years; fewer still remain at an elite level long term.

There are exceptions, and we'll look at a few who may be among that special group, but it's a good idea to compare current stars in their 30s to those who had been there before. Here are five aging players who could start showing their age.

RB Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts

Age: 33
Player comp: Emmitt Smith

Gore has had a fairly accomplished career. He was the primary tailback in San Francisco from 2006 - his age-23 season - until 2015, which was his first with the Colts. The move prompted jeers that Gore was done as a feature back, and considering few manage to remain relevant into their 30s, this didn't seem too far-fetched.

And a decline occurred. For the first time in his pro career, Gore averaged fewer than four yards per carry and failed to reach the 1,000 yard plateau despite starting all 16 games. Emmitt Smith will certainly be remembered far more favorably than Gore, but they had similar builds, though Smith was more of a TD threat in a more run-heavy NFL.

Smith, at age 32, also failed to rush for four yards per carry and he never reached that average again. His last Pro Bowl selection came when he was 30. Gore was last selected to the Pro Bowl in 2013. He was 30 years old. While Gore saw a spike in receptions, it's hardly enough to expect a return to form or him to be anything more than an RB3.

WR Steve Smith Sr., Baltimore Ravens

Age: 37
Player comp: Isaac Bruce

Few players stay effective in their 30s. Fewer still stay borderline elite into their late-30s. Smith was en route to the 1,000-yard plateau as Baltimore's number one receiver through seven games. He was the draft bargain among wide receivers before his season ended prematurely due to a torn Achilles tendon. It looked like his career could be over.

It's not his first severe injury, and maybe he returns at full strength. The concern is exacerbated because he'll be 37 years old when the season begins. In many ways, he's a trailblazer for those dedicated to stick around while still being productive. Wide receiver Lynn Swann retired at 30. Keyshawn Johnson made it through his age 34 season semi-productive.

Bruce was almost as consistently productive as Smith his entire career. Even in limited action in 2009, his age-37 season, he managed 12.6 yards per reception and the season prior saw him haul in seven TD passes. Smith should still be semi-valuable, especially as he's still considered the top WR option in Baltimore, but it could still be diminished returns.

WR Brandon Marshall, New York Jets

Age: 32
Player comp: Randy Moss

Moss was more explosive while Marshall has been a steadier all-around receiver. As a starter, Marshall has only had one season with fewer than 1,000 yards receiving and that was because he missed three games due to injury. Moss, through his age-32 season, only finished with fewer than 1,000 yards receiving twice and both in shortened seasons.

Moss' career was more or less over after 2009, which seems odd when looking at his stats. He caught tallied 1,264 yards on 83 receptions with 13 TDs, tied for the league lead. Incidentally, Marshall led the NFL in TDs with 14 a year ago.

Marshall, like Moss, is 6-foot-4. He has reach and excellent athletic ability. It may not matter much if QB Ryan Fitzpatrick returns, though he probably improves Marshall's value slightly. Currently, Marshall is the 10th WR being drafted, and that's likely exactly where he should be.

TE Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

Age: 36
Player comp: Tony Gonzalez

Eventually, Gates will be used alongside Gonzalez as the comparisons to stellar tight ends who maintain usefulness into the waning years of their careers. Gonzalez ended up playing five seasons with the Atlanta Falcons and never really slowed down. He was more productive in 2013 than he was in 1998, his first full season as a starter.

As far as offensive-minded TEs are concerned, Gonzalez is 1A and Gates is 1B. Gates is seven touchdowns away from matching Gonzalez's 111. The one big difference might be durability, and that's only if you buy into Gates' 2015 as the new normal. It's irresponsible to ignore the 12 touchdowns from 2014. Besides, he still caught five in limited action a year ago.

Gates is not being targeted highly in drafts. He's largely being written off despite having a strong-arm quarterback in Philip Rivers who has repeatedly gone back to Gates for the last 12 seasons. Rapport may be immeasurable, but just look at Jimmy Graham's exit from New Orleans. Without Drew Brees, Graham was hardly effective in Seattle.

Gates is 36 and the Chargers let backup Ladarius Green walk to Pittsburgh. Gates is still the guy and he's a solid, late-round TE2 with enough upside to be a TE1.

QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Age: 39
Player comp: Kurt Warner

It's extremely difficult to find an appropriate comparison to Brady. He'll be 39 at the start of the season, and is likely going to get a four-week sojourn to kick it all off. He's not going to fall apart like Peyton Manning did, and he has been a different kind of passer, anyway. Brett Favre isn't a good match because he was far too erratic. Steve Young was too mobile. Dan Marino faded away.

Even Warner is a bit of a stretch. Brady is borderline uncharted territory - and so is Drew Brees for that matter - though Warner was still effective through his age-38 season, which wound up being his last. But even Warner had a down period and received his first shots much later.

Still, 38-year-old Warner threw for 3,753 yards and 26 touchdowns. That is attainable for Brady, and likely more realistic considering the four-game suspension staring him down. He's efficient and will throw fewer interceptions than Warner. Missing the four weeks will hurt his value, but he should easily be handcuffed to a later round option who can pick up the slack in his absence.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox