Running back job security index - early edition
Being a running back in the NFL is a perilous line of work. Rarely does one walk away from the game - not without being unceremoniously cut or worse, suffering a bevy of torn ligaments and concussions.
That's why many starting RBs, regardless of age, injury history or recent production, will be looking over their shoulders heading into the preseason. Ahead of your fantasy drafts, be aware of which RBs have short-term job security and which could soon find themselves on the hot seat. Someone always has next.
Job Security Scale: 10 means a player has the complete trust of his coaches; 1 means his agent should start printing out resumes.
Something to Prove
| NAME | TEAM | RUSH YDS | Y/A | REC | REC YDS | SECURITY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Rawls | SEA | 830 | 5.6 | 9 | 76 | 7 |
| DeMarco Murray | TEN | 702 | 3.6 | 44 | 322 | 6 |
| LeGarrette Blount | NE | 703 | 4.3 | 6 | 43 | 3 |
Rawls is recovering from a broken ankle that ended his year prematurely, but the Seahawks invested heavily in RB depth, with three backs taken between the third and seventh rounds of the 2016 draft. Questions about Rawls' Week 1 availability could give another RB a chance to shine. Look to see who is used on passing downs in the preseason.
Murray was one of the best players in football in 2014, but he was playing behind the league's top offensive line in Dallas. Murray needs to prove last season's 3.6 YPC was an outlier and not the new norm. Former Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry could split carries. It would be smart to handcuff Murray; there's a distinct chance that things won't improve for him in 2016.
Blount might not be long for the NFL. He's a complete non-factor in the Patriots' passing game and that lack of versatility makes it easier for defenses to read the offense when he's on the field. Dion Lewis is the lead back, even if Blount sees more rushing attempts on a per-game basis.
Fading Veterans
| NAME | TEAM | RUSH YDS | Y/A | REC | REC YDS | SECURITY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | NYG | 863 | 4.4 | 29 | 296 | 6 |
| Frank Gore | IND | 967 | 3.7 | 34 | 267 | 5 |
| Justin Forsett | BAL | 641 | 4.2 | 31 | 153 | 4 |
The Giants' RB situation has "committee" written all over it. Fortunately for 31-year-old Jennings, sharing a backfield with Andre Williams and Shane Vereen doesn't really scream 'internal competition'. However, Vereen has averaged more than 50 receptions over his past three seasons, limiting Jennings' potential in PPR leagues. Jennings just isn't a very attractive option.
Gore is 33. The best comp in terms of age is Emmitt Smith, who ran for 975 yards and five TDs in 2002 - but if you're hoping that Gore's continued late-career productivity mirrors that of Smith, you'll likely be disappointed. Would anyone be shocked if Gore's decline was brutal and swift? Keep an eye on backup Robert Turbin and undrafted rookie Josh Ferguson.
Forsett's play fell off dramatically after his Pro Bowl-caliber 2014 season. His declining skills makes him a mid-round flier at best. Expect Javorius Allen to feature more heavily in the passing game, building off his 45-catch rookie year.
Busy Backfields
| NAME | TEAM | RUSH YDS | Y/A | REC | REC YDS | SECURITY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | ARI | 581 | 4.6 | 36 | 457 | 10 |
| Chris Ivory | JAX | 1070 | 4.3 | 30 | 217 | 7 |
| Jay Ajayi | MIA | 187 | 3.8 | 7 | 90 | 2 |
Make no mistake: while Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington offer fantastic backfield depth, Arizona will be intent to see whether Johnson's last five games of 2015 (658 total yards, five TDs, 17 receptions) are a sign of big things to come.
Ivory is coming off his best season, but remember that second-year pro T.J. Yeldon was a second-round pick just last season. The Jaguars wouldn't have blocked Yeldon's development unless they felt there was a realistic chance he wouldn't pan out. Expect Yeldon to still receive a fairly substantial number of snaps, but Ivory will have the larger piece of the pie.
The Dolphins waved goodbye to Lamar Miller, so Ajayi would have been due for a big boost from seeing just 15.3 percent of offensive snaps last season. But the team signed Arian Foster, who will likely assume starting duties. The only way Ajayi grabs a feature role is if the oft-injured Foster once again hits the shelf with an injury. Stay far away from Ajayi.
Running Out of Time
| NAME | TEAM | RUSH YDS | Y/A | REC | REC YDS | SECURITY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | SD | 641 | 3.5 | 33 | 192 | 8 |
| C.J. Anderson | DEN | 720 | 4.7 | 25 | 183 | 6 |
| Isaiah Crowell | CLE | 706 | 3.8 | 19 | 182 | 3 |
Gordon's rookie campaign went about as poorly as it could have gone, but expect him to take on a much bigger role in Year 2. The Chargers invested too high a draft pick to not give the Wisconsin product extended run as the lead back. Danny Woodhead will still be a force on passing downs but Gordon will feature more heavily after he played on just 33.8 percent of snaps in 2015.
On one hand, the Broncos' reliance on the run game could increase with the departure of Peyton Manning - though Anderson didn't exactly shoulder the load when it appeared the future Hall of Famer was unable to make a throw downfield. Devontae Booker was taken in the fourth round and could be lurking in the shadows if Anderson fails to take a step forward in Year 4.
Crowell's time in Cleveland might be coming to an end. Though still only 23, he averaged just 3.8 yards per touch and added little as a receiving threat. Duke Johnson, drafted in the third round last season, caught 61 passes for 534 yards in his rookie season, so if he demonstrates even average rushing abilities this preseason, he's a sure bet to take over starting duties for Week 1.