Fantasy Golf Insider: 9 players to target at the PGA Championship

The PGA Championship returns to Baltusrol Golf Club in New Jersey for the first time since 2005. Phil Mickelson won that event with a final score of 4-under par for his second major victory.

A field of 156 golfers will compete for the year's fourth and final major in the constricted Olympic-year schedule. Following the second round, the top 70 and ties will head into the weekend. A risk of thunderstorms stretches from Friday through the weekend but the wind isn't expected to be a major issue.

Here's a look at the past three PGA Championship leaderboards:

Per FantasyInsiders, the key stats for Baltusrol Golf Club are Driving Distance (DD), Par 4 Scoring Average (P4S), Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SGOT), Strokes Gained: Approach (SGA). These stats are tailored to the course model and need to be used in combination with recent form and course history when assembling lineups.

Top Tier, Top Dollar, Top Results

Rory McIlroy

A two-time winner of this event in 2014 and 2012, no player in the field has had the recent success of McIlroy at the PGA Championship.

While the tournament is played at a different course each year, and McIlroy was just 16 years old the last time it was held at Baltusrol, it is set up in a similar fashion with a similar degree of difficulty each year.

Mickelson's winning score was significantly higher than McIlroy's both in 2012 and 2014, but the increased length off the tee tour-wide should lead to a lower winning score this time around. McIlroy ranks 13th in DD and first in SGOT. He also ranks second in BoB. He doesn't have a PGA victory yet this year, but he has six top-10 finishes in just 13 events.

Sergio Garcia

With the first three majors of 2016 having been won by a first-time major champion, could this finally be the time for the tour's longest-suffering elite player?

Garcia finished fifth in both The Open Championship and the U.S. Open. He finished 23rd at Baltusrol in 2005. He has made 11 of 12 PGA cuts this year, picking up four top 10s and a victory at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He also finished inside the top 10 in each of three European Tour events this year. He ranks 11th in SGOT, sixth in SGA and eighth in BoB.

He'll be highly owned, but he has looked fully capable of finally breaking his major curse this season.

Rickie Fowler

Like McIlroy, Fowler's season has looked like a disappointment, despite several top finishes. He has collected seven top 10s in 18 events while making a more modest 13 cuts. Many may not remember his victory in Abu Dhabi back in January.

He has a top-35 rank in each of the week's key stats. He has struggled with a rank of 98th in Driving Accuracy, but he still sits 11th in SGOT. With public perception unnecessarily down on Fowler, he represents a highly skilled contrarian option.

Best Value With a Chance

J.B. Holmes

Holmes was a surprise third-place finisher at The Open, his best result of the season and his fifth top-10 showing. He had also placed fourth at the Masters, but he missed the cut at the U.S. Open. He finished 24th at last year's PGA Championship at Whistling Straits.

He's the second-longest driver on tour, while also ranking seventh in SGOT. He struggles with accuracy off the tee, but it has clearly not affected his overall driving. He comes with a decent salary for someone with so much success in majors this season.

Charl Schwartzel

Schwartzel's surprising equipment change from Nike to the little-known PXG in the days before The Open was met with adequate results, as he finished 18th for his best showing in a major this season. Despite the subpar performances in majors, he has won three times this season between the PGA and European Tours.

While not a great driver of the ball nor a particularly good putter, Schwartzel does rank fifth in SGA and 18th in BoB. He has a strong preference for Bentgrass greens, boosting his stock for Baltusrol. His salary is far too low to be ignored.

Justin Thomas

A similar selection to Fowler, selecting Thomas at a bargain of a salary is about choosing skills over recent form. Thomas has made 17 of 21 cuts, but he has just four top 10s with his last win coming back in October of 2015.

His last top 10 came back The Players Championship in May, with a strength of field similar to a major. A long driver, Thomas has been horribly inaccurate off the tee this season, leading to a poor rank of 105th in SGOT.

He has made the cut in each major this season, and he has to do little more with constantly dropping salary and ownership.

If Everything Goes Right

Andrew Johnston

Despite soaring to the top of the public-opinion rankings, Johnston's salary is middling in the bottom tier. Despite the sure-to-be-high ownership, his eighth-place finish at The Open is too great to ignore. He had missed two of his previous three cuts and finished in a tie for 54th at the U.S. Open, but his confidence is high coming off the year's third major.

He doesn't qualify for any PGA Tour stats, but his average driving distance of 304.7 yards would rank 10th on tour. He loses strokes approaching and around the green, but he has been a better-than-average putter while making up most of his ground with the driver. The value in the low salary counteracts the expected high ownership.

Tyrrell Hatton

Hatton finished T5 at The Open, after placing second at the Scottish Open. He hasn't played in North America yet this year, but he made 11 of 13 cuts on the European Tour.

He finished 25th at last year's PGA Championship, his first major appearance. He ranks ninth in the Race to Dubai, representing one of the European Tour's top talents this year. He needs little more than a made cut in order to return immense value with low ownership.

Gary Woodland

While Woodland is ranked ninth in DD and is well known for his driving abilities, he also ranks 22nd in SGA and 28th in SGOT. He struggles with accuracy and putting, but he does rank 15th in Bogey Avoidance, yet another of this week's more prominent statistics.

He's coming off a 12th at The Open, his lone major appearance this year. He has made nine of his 10 cuts and 16 of 19 for the year. He has just a lone top-10 finish on the season, but he doesn't need to do that well to be of value at this week's salary.

Top Fades

Bubba Watson

While DD and SGOT have been strengths of Watson this season and for his career, his very poor rankings in accuracy and around the greens will hold him back. He hasn't finished better than 37th in a major this season, something he needs to do in order to return value at a high salary.

Danny Willett

As one of the year's first three major winners, Willett will play his Thursday and Friday rounds with Dustin Johnson and Henrik Stenson. While priced similarly to his two partners, Willett has easily had the worst recent form. He placed just 53rd at The Open and 37th at the U.S. Open, with missed cuts in each of his past two European Tour events.

Brooks Koepka

Expected to return from an ankle injury this week, Koepka hasn't played in a professional event in a month. He did finish T13 at the U.S. Open and T21 at the Masters, but he represents too much risk at a high salary in his return to tournament play.