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Kicking the habit: Stephen Gostkowski isn't worth a reach

Andrew Weber / Reuters

When it comes to kickers, the Patriots' Stephen Gostkowski is without equal.

Gostkowski has topped the position in fantasy scoring every season since 2012, per fantasydata. He may not always attempt the most field goals, but New England's strong offense provides him with consistent extra-point opportunities. Somewhat surprisingly, the Patriots were among five teams not to attempt a single two-point conversion in 2015.

With that said, you shouldn't reach for Gostkowski. While he has reliably led the position in scoring, it hasn't been by such a margin to justify an average draft position of nearly two rounds before any other kicker. FantasyPros assigns Gostkowski an ADP of 108 overall; the next kicker isn't being drafted until pick 129.

The table below shows the difference in the final fantasy point totals between Gostkowski and the year's second-highest-scoring kicker:

Season Gostkowski 2nd-place kicker Difference
2012 153 145 8
2013 158 150 8
2014 158 156 2
2015 159 150 9

Those four second-place kickers all differed from year to year. In chronological order from 2012, they were the Giants' Lawrence Tynes, the Broncos' Matt Prater, the Eagles' Cody Parkey and the Panthers' Graham Gano.

In the long run, extra points certainly help a kicker's value, but field goal attempts are more desirable for fantasy purposes, especially with distance bonuses frequently awarded on top of what's regularly given for successful kicks. A long field goal or two could swing a close weekly fantasy matchup.

The ideal fantasy kicker would play for a team that moves the ball with ease, but bogs down inside the 30-yard line, creating field goal opportunities. Here's a list of last season's top 10 kickers in terms of field goal attempts and their team's rank in converting third-downs. Kickers are listed in descending order of most field goals attempted:

Kicker Team 3rd-down Rank
Tucker (BAL) 23
Walsh (MIN) 19 (T)
Gould (CHI) 6
Santos (KC) 19 (T)
Gostkowski (NE) 11
Gano (CAR) 7
McManus (DEN) 25
Brown (NYG) 22
Bailey (DAL) 27
Boswell (PIT) 17

For some context, the Saints topped the NFL in converting 48 percent of their third downs, while the Rams ranked dead last at 26 percent. Aside from the Bears, Panthers and Patriots, each of the other seven kickers' teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of third-down conversion rate.

Repeating it for 2014, we see:

Kicker Team 3rd-down Rank
Folk (NYJ) 20
Carpenter (BUF) 26
Gostkowski (NE) 6
Hauschka (SEA) 11
Sturgis (MIA) 17
Parkey (PHI) 9
Bullock (HOU) 22
Gano (CAR) 12
Walsh (MIN) 21
Tucker (BAL) 14

Unlike in 2015, five of the top 10 kickers with the most field goal attempts played for teams in the upper half of third-down conversion rates.

As can be seen in each of the last two tables, only four kickers appeared on both lists: Gano, Tucker, Blair Walsh and Gostkowski. Gano and Tucker make fine alternatives to Gostkowski, and are for the most part being drafted among the first four kickers, along with Seattle's Steven Hauschka.

Walsh is the name that may fly somewhat under the fantasy radar, as he's arguably most famous for his last-second missed 27-yard field goal that would have handed the Vikings a 2016 Wild Card win over the Seahawks.

Minnesota has an Adrian Peterson-led offense, and while QB Teddy Bridgewater is accurate (64.9 percent career completion rate), he threw just 14 TD passes in 16 games last season. The Vikings seem tailor-made to reliably move the ball, but ultimately fall short of the end zone.

Per Football Outsiders' drive stats, the Vikings scored a touchdown in half of their red zone appearances in 2015, a rank that placed them 25th. The Lions led the NFL by crossing the goal line on nearly 70 percent of their trips inside the 20, so perhaps it's not surprising that their kicker, the ex-Bronco Prater, only attempted 24 field goals, 15 fewer than Walsh.

Even when the Vikings' drives stall well short of the red zone, Walsh has the ability to connect from long range. He made 6-of-8 kicks from 50 yards or greater last season, bettered only by Robbie Gould's 7-for-9 mark for the Bears.

In 2014, Walsh made five 50+ yard kicks, and was a stunning 10-for-10 from that range in his 2012 rookie season. Aside from a 2013 in which only two of his 26 made field goals were from beyond 50 yards, he's been a consistent threat from distance.

Walsh also won't have to contend with the frigid conditions that may have hindered his would-be winning kick in the playoffs, as the brand new U.S. Bank Stadium the Vikings are moving into boasts a permanent, non-retractable roof.

Ultimately, kicker is not a position that needs to be heavily scrutinized for fantasy purposes, but Walsh represents an option with some upside that should realistically be available in the final round of drafts, after the relative big name kickers have been taken.

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