Breakout or Fakeout: Was Devonta Freeman's sophomore season a fluke?
It's safe to say that few saw Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman's sophomore season coming. He rushed for over 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns, and was the team's third-leading receiver with 578 yards after producing only 473 total yards as a rookie in 2014.
Freeman's campaign, however, was a tale of two halves. In the first eight games of the season, he played like an All-Pro. In the latter eight, he failed to rush for 100 yards in a single game.
So which version of Freeman will the Falcons get in 2016? Were his highs early on an illusion, or did the 24-year-old suffer from the poor overall play of the Falcons' offense?
Is he for real?
The case for Freeman
There's no doubt that Freeman petered out toward the end of the season, and while he may not be the superstar he appeared to be early in 2015, he's one of the league's most well-rounded backs.
It's easy to view him as a one-year wonder, but don't forget, this is a running back with only two years under his belt. The Falcons rode him hard during the first eight games of the season; he had four games with 25-plus touches, as Atlanta relied on him as both a runner and a receiver.
This type of workload isn't sustainable for such a young back. Freeman had 265 carries and 73 receptions in 2015. The next closest Falcons back was Tevin Coleman, who had 87 carries and two receptions.
While Freeman's struggles late cannot be forgotten, neither should his play early in the campaign: He had back-to-back three-touchdown performances, rushed for over 100 yards four times, and had 40 yards or more receiving six times.
The Falcons' offense faltered down the stretch, and teams began to focus on stopping Freeman, which he struggled to adjust to. His burst from early in the season appeared to dwindle due to the heavy workload, but that could be fixed by splitting carries more evenly with Coleman.
Freeman may not be a perennial All-Pro, but he proved enough in 2015 that he's a legitimate starting running back in the league.
- Browne
The case against Freeman
Freeman capitalized on an ideal set of circumstances last season to win over both Falcons fans and fantasy owners. He took advantage of being a featured weapon early in the campaign and rode his high touchdown numbers to an improved reputation.
All four of Freeman's 100-yard games last season came both prior to the Falcons' collapse and against run defenses that finished among the league's bottom 15.
The Falcons targeted Freeman out of the backfield at a much higher rate than they should anticipate next season. Roddy White was a non-factor as the No. 2 option at receiver and has since been replaced by Mohamed Sanu. Atlanta will also be looking to get rookie tight end Austin Hooper involved in the mix.
Coleman saw 20 carries in the Falcons' 2015 season opener before getting hampered by multiple injuries. In the rookie's absence, Freeman received a lot more red-zone touches than a player of his size is generally expected to get. When the team had to call upon Coleman again in Week 12 due to an injured Freeman, Coleman performed very well with 110 yards on 18 carries.
Now that defensive coordinators have a full offseason to study Freeman's breakout season, his days of running through front sevens by himself are over. With a healthy Coleman in the lineup, the Falcons will be able to split carries, giving neither back an edge to rack up the yards.
Freeman's speed and receiving skills will allow him to be productive, but don't count on him having another 1,000-yard season and leading the league in rushing touchdowns, as the Falcons will look to spread the ball around in 2016.
- Sanderson
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