Fantasy Fallout: Al Jefferson's offense could anchor second unit; Turner should still start

Here are the fantasy repercussion following the news that Indiana Pacers have signed PF/C Al Jefferson to a three-year, 30 million dollar contract, per Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical:

An offseason of change has swept through Indiana; George Hill, Solomon Hill, Jordan Hill and Ian Mahinmi are out, PG Jeff Teague, PF Thaddeus Young and now Jefferson are in. They join holdover rotation pieces SF Paul George, SG Monta Ellis and sophomore C Myles Turner.

After acquiring Young prior to draft day, the projected starting frontcourt would have seen George at the three, Young at four and Turner at five. By adding Jefferson, it's unclear if that's indication that Turner, still only 20 years old, will be the first man off the bench or whether that role will fall to Jefferson. A cursory evaluation of skill sets and fit makes latter scenario seems likelier.

Jefferson's main skill is scoring in the post in variety of ways, a throwback to the time of towering frontcourts. The trade-off is that he's never been an effective rim protector, and at 31 years old, the best the Pacers can hope for is to hide him within an effective team-oriented defense, as was the case during his best years in Charlotte.

So why expose him to starting unit offenses? Instead, by putting Jefferson in a reserve role, he'll be able to be the focal point of the bench-unit offense while facing the lesser athletic talents from the opposing team's bench, mitigating some of the risk that his turnstile defense brings.

Last season, Jefferson had his worst campaign since becoming a full-time starter with the Celtics in 2006/2007. In just 23.3 minutes a night, he averaged 12 points and 6.4 rebounds. He missed 22 games with injury; that's life for a player with nearly 25,000 career minutes.

It will be interesting to see what his role becomes. On a per-36-minute basis, his stats last year weren't dramatically off his career rate, but the days of Jefferson playing 30-plus minutes a game are likely over. Expect him to average 20 to 25 minutes off the bench, with 13 points and six rebounds being his ceiling on a game-to-game basis.

Jefferson was drafted with an ADP of 50.3 last season with the hope that he would continue producing at a 16.6-point, 8.4-rebound per game pace. A year of mixed results and uncertainty of his current role with the Pacers drops his value. It would be appropriate to target Jefferson with a pick in the 10th to 12th rounds as a high-reward play; the risk is that he proves to be droppable early.

Other Notes

• The Jefferson signing doesn't hurt Turner's value too much. He'll probably play between 25 and 30 minutes a night in the upcoming season, as he did in February and March of his rookie year. As he only averaged 22.8 minutes per game last year, the addition of Jefferson won't throw off the natural expansion of Turner's role. There's room for both.

• Drafting Jefferson comes with some injury risk. He's missed a total of 52 games over the past two seasons and knees that carry 6-foot-10, 290-pound don't have a long shelf life. If you're playing the risk/reward game with Jefferson on draft day, make sure your league offers several roster spots for players on the DL -- you'll invariably need one for Jefferson.