Fantasy Football Faceoff: Doug Martin vs. Eddie Lacy

Here's a look at whether fantasy football owners would be better off selecting Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Doug Martin or Green Bay Packers RB Eddie Lacy in 2016 drafts:

2015 Stats

The Case for Doug Martin

Martin put together an outstanding 2015 season, rushing for the best per-carry average of his career (4.9). This included a string of three consecutive 100-yard games, though the crowning jewel was his 235-yard performance on a season-high 27 carries against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11.

Injuries limited Martin in 2013 and 2014, but the resurgence in 2015 should have fantasy owners excited. Those who gambled on him were rewarded handsomely as he was second in the NFL with 1,402 rushing yards, behind only Adrian Peterson. In a receiver's league, Martin took great strides.

While his 33 receptions paled in comparison to the 49 from his 2012 rookie campaign, he averaged 8.2 yards per catch and added a touchdown. More of the same can be expected and he may have to carry the offense. This bodes well for fantasy owners.

Best-Case Scenario: Injury concerns are washed away for good as he reaches new career highs in TDs, yards from scrimmage, and total touches. He finishes among the top rushers on the season and silencing those who insisted on drafting him as the ninth running back off the board.

Worst-Case Scenario: Even if the injury bug doesn't bite, he may see his goal-line touches vultured by backup Charles Sims and QB Jameis Winston. Low TD totals and a trip to the IR would cement him as the bust of the fantasy season.

The Case for Eddie Lacy

Lacy was a fantastic fantasy option in his first two seasons, rushing for more than 1,100 yards in both years. He scored 20 rushing touchdowns in that time and added four receiving scores in 2014, adding a layer to his growing game.

Even though 2015 was a massive disappointment, he didn't see his yards-per-carry decrease, just his overall volume. He only ran for three touchdowns and caught just two more. He still had three 100-yard rushing games, all in the second half of the season.

He has dropped weight, but that hasn't prevented a dip in ADP. He went from one of the first RBs off the draft board last season to the No. 10 option in 2016. Those writing him off could be relying too heavily on an outlier season, easily forgetting the two stellar years that came before it because of the "what-have-you-done-for-me-lately" attitude so prevalent in fantasy sports.

Best-Case Scenario: 2015 was a blip and he proves to once again be a TD threat on the ground and through the air. His ceiling is a top-3 running back as he has shown durability in his first three seasons.

Worst-Case Scenario: He gets benched in favor of James Starks by Week 3 and his stock plummets in both real-life and fantasy. He won't have much of a window in which to stumble; if he does, he'll be out of a job quickly, which makes spending a second-round draft pick on him incredibly risky.

Verdict

The range of outcomes for Lacy is much wider than it is for Martin. Lacy probably has the higher ceiling, but he also has the much lower floor before injuries are accounted for. Martin's injury risk is certainly a knock against him, but while Sims will snatch TDs away on occasion, Martin is still the definitive main back in Tampa.

Martin has better speculative value in both standard and PPR leagues even if Lacy's 2015 turns out to be a misrepresentation of his norm. If Lacy's ADP drops heading closer to the beginning of the season, he may become a solid value play. Until then, the choice is Martin.