Why Horford should push for a sign-and-trade to the Thunder
What makes Al Horford such a fascinating free agent is that his versatile skill set makes him a good fit just about anywhere. Once Kevin Durant makes up his mind, Horford will likely become the most sought-after player on the open market.
The Hawks, with Horford's Bird rights in hand, can offer him an extra year and more than $30 million in additional salary, so, for purely pragmatic reasons, Atlanta still seems like his most probable destination. If, however, he's approaching free agency the way Durant is - purely as a basketball decision - the Hawks are far from his best option.
The team appears to have maxed out its potential in its current iteration, and has now lost two crucial pieces from the 2014-15 outfit that won 60 games and finally outstripped the franchise's decade-long designation as second-round fodder. DeMarre Carroll is gone. Jeff Teague is gone. Kent Bazemore is a free agent, and will very possibly be gone. Paul Millsap can become a free agent in a year. Kyle Korver showed troubling signs of decline this past season, and will also be a free agent next summer. There's an awful lot of uncertainty in Atlanta, and locking in for five years there seems like a frightening proposition for a guy whose next contract will almost certainly outlive his prime. Does Horford really want to spend his remaining peak years getting swept by the Cavaliers in the playoffs?
If Durant decides to re-sign with the Thunder, it would behoove Horford to force his way there too. On top of getting to reunite with his college coach, Billy Donovan, Horford could really raise the Thunder's already high ceiling for the next few years.
Having traded Serge Ibaka on draft night, the Thunder could slot in Horford as a similar power forward-center hybrid, only with better roster balance around him. He doesn't protect the rim the way Ibaka does, or bring the same level of athleticism, but he's an equally strong team defender and a far more polished offensive player. He's expanded his range out to the 3-point line, but he'd be far more than just a spot-up threat, which is what Ibaka had effectively become. Horford would bring a whole new measure of low-post scoring and high-post playmaking, which could unlock some interesting things for the Thunder offense and make them a serious threat to the Warriors' Western Conference hegemony.
That may seem superfluous for a team that just finished second in the league in offensive rating, but when you've seen the kind of slogging, predictable, iso-heavy stagnancy that can take root for the Thunder, particularly at the end of games, it's easy to see how valuable a tertiary playmaker would be to them. Horford, coming from Atlanta's equal-opportunity offense, could help keep the ball - and the bodies - moving.
Yes, it would mean a reduced role and fewer touches, but if Horford can put aside his pride, a lineup of him, Durant, Russell Westbrook, Steven Adams, and Victor Oladipo would be a two-way terror - a lineup with both size and speed, interior presence and switchability, post prowess and shooting, and the ability to run pick-and-rolls with virtually any two-man combination.
The money is where things get tricky for the Thunder, as Durant's cap hold leaves them no room to accommodate Horford. They can open up space by waiving Ersan Ilyasova and/or Anthony Morrow (collectively carrying $12 million worth of non-guaranteed salary), renouncing Dion Waiters, and trying to find a taker for the redundant likes of Kyle Singler and Nick Collison, but that would leave them perilously thin. That's why the most viable path here is probably a sign-and-trade involving center Enes Kanter. On top of allowing the Thunder to maintain their roster depth, this would let Horford have his cake (i.e. a five-year deal) and eat it, too.
There's no indication the Hawks want Kanter, who doesn't fit their aggressive defensive scheme or pass-happy ethos. But consider this: He's six years younger than Horford, he'd bring far less long-term risk, and he'd come about $10 million cheaper per year. If, as the Teague trade seems to indicate, the Hawks are ready to establish a new timeline, Kanter fits it far better than Horford.
Millsap could mask some of Kanter's slow-footed defensive deficiencies, and the two would form a fearsome high-low tandem on offense. Perhaps most importantly, the Hawks - who finished 28th in rebound rate last season (and dead last on the offensive glass) - would get one of the best rebounders in the game. All told, he'd be a very worthwhile gamble.
Many pieces have to fall into place for Horford to end up on the Thunder, but a sign-and-trade makes a lot of sense for both sides.