Fantasy Football Faceoff: Jordy Nelson vs. A.J. Green

Here's a look at whether fantasy football owners would be better off selecting Green Bay Packers WR Jordy Nelson or Cincinnati Bengals WR A.J. Green in 2016 drafts:

2015 Stats

* Nelson missed the 2015 season with a knee injury.

The Case for Jordy Nelson

Nelson has the good fortune of being the primary target for QB Aaron Rodgers, one of the best pure passers in the league over the past eight seasons. An elite receiver can be a threat unto himself, whether he has an elite QB to match or not, but having Rodgers in the fold instantly gives Nelson a great floor.

The elephant in the room is that Nelson missed the entire 2015 season after tearing his ACL in preseason action. Despite totaling 2,833 yards and 21 receiving TDs from 2013 to 2014, a significant injury layoff at age 30 puts his future as a fantasy star in doubt.

What isn't in doubt is the Packers' need for high-end receivers. Randall Cobb led the team with 890 receiving yards, the lowest single-season total for the top option since Rodgers became the starter. Nelson has an immediate opportunity to take his job back. With an ADP putting him in the middle of the second round this season, he'll need to perform.

Best-Case Scenario: 1,300 yards, 90 receptions and 10 TDs would score as a good season for any player. At age 31, that's as much as you can hope for from Nelson.

Worst-Case Scenario: The increased risk of another injury wiping out the season is real. Nelson needs to play 14-plus games to validate his draft status, so anything less than that and his owners will be in big trouble. Hope for a healthy year but prepare for disaster.

The Case for A.J. Green

Green is a paragon of consistency. He has played 76 out of a possible 80 games in his career, playing all 16 games in three of his five seasons. He has never recorded fewer than 1,000 receiving yards and has averaged 0.59 touchdowns per game; all-time receiving TD leader Jerry Rice averaged 0.65 TDs per game for his career.

By Week 1, Green will be 28 years old - Nelson's junior by four years. The two are built similarly. Green stands six-foot-four while Nelson measures six-foot-three; both weigh close to 210 lbs. Both have used their light, long frames to make big plays down field. The main difference is that Green is in the middle of his physical peak while Nelson is older and coming off a major knee injury.

That said, none of Green's five excellent seasons quite compare to Nelson's 2014 season, where the latter's receptions, yardage and TD totals would each tie or surpass Green's high watermarks. There's no arguing that having Rodgers in your corner is a distinct advantage that can help overcome the difference in talent.

Best-Case Scenario: He needs a healthy season from QB Andy Dalton, but Green has the tools to break out for an epic campaign. No one would be surprised if Green finished with 100 receptions, 1,800 yards and 15 TDs.

Worst-Case Scenario: Even in years where Dalton has struggled, Green has performed to a high standard. I can't envision a situation that doesn't involve significant injuries where Green doesn't reach 80 receptions, 1,200 yards and eight TDs.

Verdict

It's clear that Green is the better player overall; if he switched teams with Nelson this year, Green would be a legitimate candidate for the first overall draft pick while Nelson might barely clear 1,000 yards receiving. Their immediate value has a lot to do with the players around them, though even elite QBs can't overcome the threat of a season-ending injury.

The issue, then, is value at their respective ADPs. Green is going three picks earlier but could conceivably finish as the top wideout in fantasy. Nelson could also perform well, but he'll have to overcome a list of hurdles to be a WR1-level producer. Green has the better floor and ceiling. The choice here is clear: A.J. Green is the man to own on draft day.