Fantasy Football Faceoff: Andrew Luck vs. Russell Wilson

Here's a look at whether fantasy football owners would be better off selecting Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck or Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson in 2016 drafts:

2015 Stats

The Case for Andrew Luck

Luck's 2015 campaign was ... not great. After breaking out for 4,761 passing yards and a league-leading 40 TD passes in his third season, Luck's follow-up campaign was marred by injury, a dramatic increase in interceptions and plenty of finger-pointing as to who was to blame.

At least part of that fault falls on the offensive line, which allowed defenses to play whack-a-mole with Luck in the pocket. You'd think that would prompt the Colts to bolster that area, but as it stands, the team could see two starters and two backups from last season in the Week 1 starting lineup. They did add C Ryan Kelly in round one of the draft but that likely won't be enough.

All that being said: Luck is still one of the most profoundly gifted passers in the league. With a semblance of pocket protection around him, he will finally be able to take advantage of all the playmaking receivers the Colts have acquired for him, including T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett.

Best-Case Scenario: 2014 was proof of what Luck is capable of with a mediocre line in front of him. If the line can pull it together and keep him on his feet (and off the injury list) the sky is the limit; 5,000 yards and 50 TDs isn't an absurd high-end projection.

Worst-Case Scenario: If the Colts stumble out of the gate and show little improvement in protecting their top asset, Luck will likely bear witness to a mid-season coaching change. The potential of missing games down the stretch increases if the team concedes that 2016 is yet another lost season.

The Case for Russell Wilson

Wilson offers a layer of dynamism that few QBs possess: the ability to rush for serious yardage. That gives him rushing-TD upside in situations that other QBs wouldn't consider. But as his passing improves year by year, both in terms of sheer volume and discipline, that aspect of his game is likely to take a backseat to avoid injury. You won't see 800 rushing yards from him this year.

But he may have reached a point where he no longer needs to rely on his legs to be a fantasy superstar. His completion percentage rose from 63.1 percent in 2014 to 68.1 last year. He threw 31 more passes last season but just one more pick. He led the league in Quarterback Rating. When the Seahawks built an early lead, chances were that Wilson and the team's defense could hold it.

One indirect consequence of fielding an elite defense is that Wilson rarely has to play from behind, a game flow scenario that can often yield those big drives that can win a week in fantasy. The trade off is that his defense created great field position, making it easier for the team to score.

Best-Case Scenario: Wilson's potential is capped. Statistically, he's among the most efficient players in the NFL. The only way to create a higher ceiling would be if his defense fell apart and forced him into longer drives -- leading to a higher potential to rack up yardage. That's unlikely to happen, so the best case is likely a repeat of 2015.

Worst-Case Scenario: The game plan will be to to minimize exposure to open-field tackles and the increased injury potential that comes with them, but if Wilson's passing takes a major step back, the 'Hawks can lean on Wilson's feet to move the ball. Worst-case scenario would be around 3,200 yards and 20 TDs through the air but 500 yards and five TDs on the ground.

Verdict

Luck is the prototype but Wilson is like Batman's utility belt, full of surprises that can get the hero out of trouble in a pinch. As 2015 proved, Luck needs some support to be an effective passer. With so much staying the same, from its coaching staff to o-line protection, Indianapolis might be in for a bad case of the deja vu blues.

Wilson's skill set makes him unpredictable, but that has been par for the course for a QB that many talent evaluators dismissed for being too small to succeed. Both players have the potential to be top-3 QBs this season but Wilson's floor is safer. Per their ADP figures, both will be on the board around the fourth round in 10-team leagues. Wilson is the better pick.