Fantasy Football Roundtable: Defense/Special Teams Edition
Here is a comprehensive breakdown of the D/ST position going into the 2016 NFL fantasy draft season, courtesy theScore's team of fantasy experts (▲: player is trending upward; ▼: player is trending downward):
Which perceived "elite" defense will underwhelm fantasy owners in 2016?
Bisson: The Denver Broncos' D/ST had a sensational 2015 campaign, but has thinned out considerably over the offseason. That hasn't stopped fantasy owners from boosting the Broncos' ADP to unreasonable levels based solely on last year's performance. This might still be a top-eight unit overall, but there's a great chance it will fail to return value relative to ADP.
McLaren: The Broncos' league-leading defensive unit will look much different in 2016. They lost DE Malik Jackson, LB Danny Trevathan and S David Bruton Jr. to free agency. Pass rusher DeMarcus Ware, ILB Brandon Marshall and CB Aqib Talib are dealing with injuries.
Conrad: The Panthers led the NFL with 24 interceptions and tied for the lead with 15 fumble recoveries; it's tough to imagine topping the charts in both of those categories again. The loss of Josh Norman (four INTs, two defensive TDs) may be felt as well.
Chernish: I agree with Ken on this one. The Panthers defensive unit were, at times, the best in the NFL. But losing an elite cornerback like Norman, who shut down almost every receiver he faced, will expose them to the deep ball in what should be a pass-heavy division, as the Saints and Falcons ranked first and seventh respectively in total passing yards last season.
Which formerly underachieving defense could surprise?
Bisson: The New York Giants spent a lot of money over the offseason, retooling a defense that allowed nearly 28 points per game last season, largely thanks to a non-existent pass rush. Additions Olivier Vernon and Janoris Jenkins should make a significant positive impact, as will returnees Jason Pierre-Paul and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. This could be a top-12 D/ST.
McLaren: The Atlanta Falcons may continue giving up plenty of points, but they should force enough turnovers to be a fantasy asset. They used a first-round pick on SS Keanu Neal and added DE Derrick Shelby and LB Courtney Upshaw via free agency. Sophomore DE Vic Beasley rounds out an improved pass rush. The return of WR Devin Hester bolsters the return game.
Conrad: For an organization known for its defense, the Baltimore Ravens only managed 14 takeaways in 2015, while finishing in the middle of the pack with 37 sacks. The addition of safety Eric Weddle should help, as will a healthy season from Terrell Suggs, who was lost in Week 1.
Chernish: The Bills are set to bounce after a dreadful 2015 season. Additions of rookies OLB Shaq Lawson, ILB Reggie Ragland and DE Adolphus Washington should help bolster a front seven that already features OLB Jerry Hughes, NT Marcell Dareus and DE Kyle Williams. Another year grasping Rex Ryan's complex system could make this unit a late-round steal.
What is the best plan of attack for addressing the position in standard 10- or 12-team leagues?
Bisson: Wait as long as possible. Rule out any defense you think will be terrible, and pick from the remaining teams. The top two fantasy defenses last season - Denver and Kansas City - were the 11th and 12th D/STs off the board, according to FantasyPros' cumulative ADP. You can always land an elite defense in the later rounds, and you should aim to do so in 2016.
McLaren: Don't draft a defense. There are enough sloppy quarterbacks and bad offenses in the NFL to allow owners to stream the position week-to-week, based on matchup alone. Draft a full roster of offensive players and drop the worst of the bunch in favor of a defense prior to Week 1.
Conrad: It's not worth reaching for a defense too much earlier than the later rounds; things like turnovers and touchdowns are hard to predict, and all but the elite defenses will be dropped on their bye weeks, anyway. Aside from the Seahawks (Week 5), most of the top options don't have byes until at least Week 9.
Chernish: Don't get trigger happy when you see the Seahawks, Houston Texans and/or Broncos go off the board early. There are team defenses outside the top-10 or top-12 with extremely high upside that will be available. If worse comes to worse, and the D/ST you chose underachieves, another plan of attack is to play the matchups and add a D/ST with a plus matchup.
What is your bold D/ST prediction for 2016?
Bisson: The top D/ST will be selected outside the top 12 in standard drafts. Aside from rare cases, like the Seattle Seahawks' extended run of defensive success, D/ST fantasy results fluctuate wildly from year to year. If you place any emphasis at all on last year's fantasy standings, you're doing it wrong. Wait it out, and there's a great chance you'll end up with an elite D/ST unit.
McLaren: WR Tyler Lockett will make the Seattle Seahawks the No. 1 D/ST in fantasy. The Seahawks totaled just two return touchdowns in 2015, scoring one on a kickoff and one off a punt return. Their defense has lost some personnel and coordinator Dan Quinn over the past couple offseasons, but Lockett can be a true game changer as the lead return man.
Conrad: Oakland will finish inside the top 10. Safety Reggie Nelson (eight INTs) was brought in to a defense that boasts third-year pass rusher Khalil Mack (15 sacks in 2015). The team finished middle-of-the-pack in terms of sacks and interceptions last season; moderate improvements will push it into the top tier.
Chernish: The Jaguars will be a top-10 defense. They ranked fourth overall in sacks last season with 51 and sixth in interceptions with 18. They added fifth overall pick CB Jalen Ramsey, projected top-10 pick OLB Myles Jack (he slipped to the second round for injury concerns) and 2015 No. 3 pick DE Dante Fowler Jr., who missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL.