Boras: Worried about Harvey? Look at Strasburg
About a year ago, one of Scott Boras' most talented clients was in a major funk. Through his first 10 starts of the 2015 campaign, the agent explained, his young right-hander had a 6.55 ERA and opponents were spanking him to the tune of a .325 batting average.
"If I gave you those numbers, you would have to say that this pitcher is in the dumps," Boras told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. "His career path is altered. He's changed. He's someone who is in deep trouble and he's not the same."
Right. And?
"The numbers I just gave you are of a pitcher who just signed a $175-million contract."
So why isn't Boras freaking out about Matt Harvey, the beleaguered New York Mets hurler with the 5.77 ERA who might have his next start skipped? Because of Stephen Strasburg, who opposed Harvey at Citi Field on Thursday night, less than two weeks after finalizing a seven-year, $175-million deal with the Washington Nationals.
Both pitchers, Boras explained, have had Tommy John surgery, which can lead to inconsistencies in performance that don't necessarily portend disaster or reflect a drop-off in ability.
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"I've been through this many times with Tommy John pitchers," Boras said. "I'm just telling you on May 29 of last year, Stephen Strasburg came off a month of May when he had 1-3 record and (10.13) ERA, and his overall ERA was 6.55.
"This Tommy John dynamic carries with it unknowns. It's amazing that Harv and Stras pitched against one another (Thursday night). You go back a year ago and who's who?"
After that dreadful start, of course, Strasburg posted a 1.76 ERA with a 35.9 percent strikeout rate the rest of the way, parlaying his turnaround into a lucrative deal. Boras hopes Harvey's summer will follow a similar trajectory.
Now in his second season back since having his ulnar collateral ligament replaced, Harvey hasn't at all resembled the All-Star he was pre-surgery, over even the machine he was last year, when he fashioned a 2.71 ERA over 29 starts amid major concerns about his workload. Through nine starts in 2016, the 27-year-old owns a 5.77 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP - both rank in the bottom-seven among qualified starters - after allowing nine runs (six earned) over 2 2/3 innings in Thursday's 9-1 loss.
Still, Boras pointed out that Harvey's velocity hasn't dipped that much from last year and noted that criticisms about his client's conditioning are unfounded.
"His velo is there. It's definitely there," Boras said. "When his velo is there, how is the league doing? The league is hitting .208 off him when he throws a 94-mph fastball and above.
"We're dealing with unknowns about why he's not locating. All I can tell you is that with Tommy John guys, there are times they don't locate. Take a look at Strasburg last year."