Evaluating the Top 30 Fantasy Players by ADP - Part I
Here's a look at how the top 30 fantasy players in terms of preseason ADP ultimately finished in standard-scoring leagues (ADP and rank courtesy FantasyPros):
PF/C Anthony Davis, Pelicans
| ADP | RANK | PTS | AST | REB | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 34.2 | 10.3 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
Davis wasn't a bust as last year's first overall pick, but he did disappoint - playing in only 61 games while posting similar averages to his 2014-15 campaign. Improvement from Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook moved them ahead of Davis as the season went on. Going into next year, he'll be a nice value pick with an approximate ADP between five and eight.
PG Stephen Curry, Warriors
| ADP | RANK | PTS | AST | REB | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 30.1 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 50.4 |
Curry's scoring and 3-point proficiency were unmatched. But what truly stood out, aside from his record-breaking performance from beyond the arc, was his 50.4-percent shooting mark - a league high among all guards. He should be the No. 1 pick in every fantasy league for 2016-17.
SG James Harden, Rockets
| ADP | RANK | PTS | AST | REB | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | 29.0 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 4.6 |
It was a career year for Harden, who notched highs in points, assists, rebounds, and (of course) turnovers. He also boasted a usage percentage of 32.2, which ranked third in the league. Though the Rockets franchise may be in flux, Harden remains an elite fantasy option who will likely be a top-5 pick.
SF Kevin Durant, Thunder
| ADP | RANK | PTS | AST | REB | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | 28.2 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 6.7 |
Durant's solid rebounding and assist numbers cement his value, while his career high in 3-point attempts was a bonus for leagues that emphasize the long ball. Even if Durant opts for a new jersey during the summer, his production and role should remain the same. His 2016-17 ADP may dip slightly, but he remains a first-round selection.
SF LeBron James, Cavaliers
| ADP | RANK | PTS | AST | REB | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | 25.3 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 30.9 |
LeBron continues to be an all-around beast. His size and athleticism allow him to be a legitimate rebounder while his passing remains impressive. The biggest drop for The King was in 3-point percentage (30.9) - the lowest since his rookie season. Wear and tear on his body will also be an issue, but James' ability will always trump that concern.
PG Chris Paul, Clippers
| ADP | RANK | PTS | AST | REB | A/T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 8 | 19.5 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 3.4 |
Paul has averaged a double-double three years in a row, while his assist-to-turnover ratio is elite. The only notable hiccup: his FG percentage sunk to 46.2, the lowest since his rookie season. Going into 2016-17, Paul's ADP might slip as he may lose his grip on top-3 PG status; Curry, Russell Westbrook and John Wall are likely to go ahead of him.
PG Russell Westbrook, Thunder
| ADP | RANK | PTS | AST | REB | STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | 23.5 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 2.0 |
Westbrook took his game to the next level this season, averaging a double-double for the first time in his career. His 7.8 rebounds (career high) helped him lead the league in triple-doubles (18). Expect the Thunder PG to be a top-3 overall pick next year.
PF/C DeMarcus Cousins, Kings
| ADP | RANK | PTS | AST | REB | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 26 | 26.9 | 3.3 | 11.5 | 3.2 |
The NBA is definitely changing when a 6-foot-11 PF/C is putting up 3.2 3-point attempts per game. Considering Boogie's points and rebound totals remained steady, fantasy players won't be complaining about his newly added skill. He remains a first-round pick for 2016-17 fantasy purposes.
PG Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers
| ADP | RANK | PTS | AST | REB | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 15 | 25.1 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 8.1 |
Lillard achieved career highs in points and assists as he led the Blazers to the playoffs. With little help in Portland, Lillard sported a 31.2 usage rate which obviously helped him reach new fantasy heights. This year's performance will elevate him into early second-round territory in next year's fantasy drafts.
SF Kawhi Leonard, Spurs
| ADP | RANK | PTS | AST | REB | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | 21.2 | 2.6 | 6.8 | 44.3 |
Leonard averaged a career high in scoring average, increasing his PPG mark from last season by nearly five points. He also improved his 3-point shooting from 34.9 to 44.3 percent. Leonard's well-rounded style provides him with a stable floor suitable for any type of fantasy league.
SG Klay Thompson, Warriors
| ADP | RANK | PTS | AST | REB | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 18 | 22.1 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 8.1 |
Thompson finished second in the league with 3.5 made 3-pointers per game. His marksmanship also continues to improve as he shot exactly 47 percent from deep. His low assist and rebounding numbers do limit his fantasy appeal, but his strong shooting percentages make him an enticing play.
PG John Wall, Wizards
| ADP | RANK | PTS | AST | REB | STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 14 | 19.9 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 |
It was a career year for Wall, who peaked in points, assists, rebounds, and steals. Wall also picked up an impressive 49 double-doubles along the way. Expect him to surpass Paul and move into the top-3 PGs selected. A late first-round pick is likely to be his 2016-17 price tag.
SG Jimmy Butler, Bulls
| ADP | RANK | PTS | AST | REB | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 28 | 20.9 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 45.5 |
Butler put together a solid season but ultimately left owners wanting more. A knee injury caused him to miss half of February and the impact was felt into March as Butler averaged just 15.7 points for the month. The poor finish will leave a sour taste for many, so expect him to fall slightly next season.
SF Carmelo Anthony, Knicks
| ADP | RANK | PTS | AST | REB | FGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 36 | 21.8 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 18.2 |
Anthony is tough player to assess for next year's fantasy purposes. At 31, he posted a career-high rebounding average (7.9) and had 22 double-doubles. He also enjoyed good health, playing in 72 games while averaging 35.1 minutes. But he was less of an offensive factor, averaging fewer field goal attempts and points than last year. His ADP will likely fall into the third round.
SF Paul George, Pacers
| ADP | RANK | PTS | AST | REB | 3PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 11 | 23.1 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
George quickly put his ghastly leg injury behind him and looked exactly like the old Paul George for the entirety of 2015-16. His reliable scoring and rebounding make him a great piece to any fantasy team and his ADP should remain in second-round territory. He isn't quite a first-round pick, but he definitely won't slip into round three.