Did the Titans trade the No. 1 pick to the wrong team?
When the Tennessee Titans traded the first overall pick in the 2016 draft to the Los Angeles Rams for a bounty of draft picks, including No. 15 overall, the move was widely hailed as a wise one.
Now, after watching the Cleveland Browns follow the Titans' lead and trade the No. 2 pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for a bounty of their own (including No. 8 overall), then convince the Titans to trade up from No. 15 to No. 8 to select offensive tackle Jack Conklin, it's fair to question whether the Titans made a mistake dropping all the way down to No. 15 in the first place.
Here's the blockbuster deal the Titans struck with the Rams:
| Titans get from Rams | Titans give to Rams |
|---|---|
| No. 15 | No. 1 |
| No. 43 (2nd rd) | No. 113 (4th rd) |
| No. 45 (2nd rd) | No. 177 (6th rd) |
| No. 76 (3rd rd) | |
| 2017 1st-rd pick | |
| 2017 3rd-rd pick |
And here's the Titans' subsequent trade to jump from No. 15 to No. 8:
| Titans get from Browns | Titans give to Browns |
|---|---|
| No. 8 (Jack Conklin) | No. 15 |
| 2016 3rd-rd pick | |
| 2017 2nd-rd pick |
Combine the two trades, and here's what the Titans' final haul looks like:
| Titans get | Titans give |
|---|---|
| No. 8 (Jack Conklin) | No. 1 |
| No. 43 (2nd rd) | No. 76 (3rd rd) |
| No. 45 (2nd rd) | No. 113 (4th rd) |
| 2017 1st-rd pick | No. 177 (6th rd) |
| 2017 3rd-rd pick | 2017 2nd-rd pick |
Essentially, the only meaningful picks the Titans gained are a second-round pick in this year's draft and a first-round choice next year.
The second- and third-round picks they received from the Rams are canceled out by the second- and third-round picks they traded away to the Browns.
(The Titans also gave away two late-round picks, but those are barely worth accounting for here.)
Now, let's take a bit of a theoretical leap. Let's assume the Titans could have traded the No. 1 pick not to the Rams, but to the Eagles. And let's assume the Eagles would have offered the same exact package they gave the Browns for the No. 2 pick.
Had the Titans traded with the Eagles, and not the Rams, there would have been no need to trade up from No. 15 to No. 8 during the draft for Conklin. The Titans could have simply remained at No. 8 and surrendered no additional draft picks.
Here's what the Titans' haul would be in that scenario:
| Titans get | Titans give |
|---|---|
| No. 8 (Jack Conklin) | No. 1 |
| No. 77 (3rd rd) | 2017 4th-rd pick |
| No. 100 (4th rd) | |
| 2017 1st-rd pick | |
| 2018 2nd-rd pick |
Here, the Titans come away with future first- and second-round picks, plus a third-rounder this year, in addition to Conklin.
Is that preferable to a second-rounder this year and a 2017 first-rounder, which the Titans netted in their trades with the Rams and Browns?
Maybe.
Perhaps we need to downgrade the value of the future picks (the second-rounder the Eagles traded away doesn't come for two more drafts). To many general managers, a third-round pick one can use immediately is worth more than a second-round pick in the next year's draft.
But is that really how a rebuilding team should think? The Browns certainly appear content to stockpile future picks.
Of course, we have no idea if the Eagles made a trade offer to the Titans for the No. 1 pick. It's possible that only after watching the Rams trade up to No. 1 did the Eagles get serious about a blockbuster trade of their own.
But if Titans general manager Jon Robinson was hasty in trading with the Rams and didn't explore whether accepting less value from the Eagles, with the bonus of only moving back to No. 8 instead of No. 15, was possible, he may have erred.