Analysis: Oregon's Helfrich decision will shape its future

Can Mark Helfrich fix Oregon?

This is the question administrators and boosters will be wrestling with as the Ducks try to avoid their first losing season since 2004. This is the question that determines whether Helfrich will get to make subtle changes to a culture that has been in place for decades, completely tear it down, or whether someone else makes that decision.

Oregon as it currently exists is an odd amalgam of Chip Kelly's "Win the Day" philosophy and coaching staff continuity that links back to the tenures of Rich Brooks, who became head coach in 1978, and Mike Bellotti. Kelly brought a revolutionary mix of tempo, sports science, and vision, paired with assistant coaches who remember the bad old days and know how to recruit to a school that is entirely dependent on California, Texas, and other states outside its own borders to field a roster. Kelly was able to energize a program with a flashy offense and flashier uniforms, complementing staffers that had institutional knowledge dating back to the early 1980s.

Without Kelly's leadership, those assistants have crossed the line from "savvy veterans" to "old men the game has passed by." Oregon's defensive recruiting has bottomed out, resulting in a unit that can't even be described as mediocre by Big 12 standards. The post-Marcus Mariota era of quarterbacking has produced two FCS transfers, a freshman, and a backup. A generational talent in Royce Freeman is being wasted, as are several wide receivers talented enough to play in the NFL.

These are issues that never should have happened given the line of succession from Kelly to Helfrich. Helfrich and his staff were in those recruiting meetings and at practice every day. They knew Arik Armstead and Deforest Buckner would eventually have to be replaced on the defensive line. They whiffed on quarterback recruiting during those glorious seasons under Mariota, leaving Oregon's 2015 season to be determined by the results of a math test at Eastern Washington.

This is not Rich Rodriguez at Michigan, someone trying to fit square pegs into round holes because of what he inherited.

There is rot in the program, deficiencies that can only be resolved by making substantial changes to the coaching staff. Now that everyone plays fast and without Kelly's tactical brilliance to create mismatches, Oregon is just another team running the spread. It needs vitality to compete. It needs aggressive recruiting to contend. It needs a new perspective to win at or near the same level Oregon got accustomed to under Kelly.

And when Helfrich got his first chance to demonstrate how his Oregon would differ from Kelly, Bellotti, or Brooks, he hired Brady Hoke as his defensive coordinator. To change a 3-4 defense into a 4-3 scheme, to rebuild a front that had struggled with the No. 7 overall draft pick as its anchor, to help a unit often hung out to dry because of massive disparities in time of possession, Helfrich turned to someone who had never been a defensive coordinator.

That decision is why many Oregon fans are ready to move on from Helfrich less than two years removed from an appearance in the national championship game. If Helfrich could make such a poor selection over a Don Brown, Todd Orlando, or Dave Aranda, can he be trusted to revamp the whole staff? With Helfrich on the hot seat, would any quality coach with viable options elsewhere join his staff?

Let P.J. Fleck or Jeff Brohm start from scratch and create a new Oregon football, they will say.

The decision will ultimately rest with Phil Knight, the man in the black hat with a headset to listen in on coaches' conversations and has turned Oregon athletics into a testing lab for Nike.

If Knight answers no to the only question that matters, Oregon will have a new coaching staff. And a new head coach.