Auburn will be hard-pressed to repeat last year's success
When Gus Malzahn returned to Auburn last season, the overwhelming sentiment was that he would turn the program around. What wasn't so widely anticipated, was just how fast he would achieve that goal.
Malzahn was the Tigers' offensive coordinator in 2010, when Auburn won the national championship, but left following the next season to take over as the head coach at Arkansas State. In his absence, Auburn struggled to a 3-9 record in 2012, after which head coach Gene Chizik was fired.
Auburn brought Malzahn back into the fold as Chizik's replacement, and Malzahn took the Tigers to the BCS National Championship Game in his first season, ultimately falling to the Florida State Seminoles. Despite the season-ending loss, it was a remarkable turnaround from 3-9 to 12-2 in one year.
While reigniting the program was an incredibly fast process, Auburn will find it difficult to repeat last season's success in 2014. Here's why:
Won't catch teams off guard
Auburn's 3-9 record in Chizik's final season included an 0-8 record within the SEC, and had most observers believing it would take a least a couple of seasons for Malzahn to right the ship. That may have given the Tigers an advantage last season, as opponents weren't expecting to face a dominant team.
That allowed Auburn to find its feet early, picking up narrow victories over Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Texas A&M during the first half of the season. The Tigers won't have that luxury in 2014, with every opponent looking to give their season a boost by knocking off the national championship finalists.
Auburn will face a stiff test when it travels to Kansas State (ranked No. 20 in the AP preseason Top 25) on Sept. 18. How the Tigers fare against the Wildcats will go a long way in showing if Auburn is prepared to have every opponent bring its "A" game this season.
Can't count on the last-second play
While "lucky" may not be the right word, the Tigers were certainly fortunate late in games last season. Whether it was the 73-yard touchdown pass to Ricardo Louis off of a deflection with under 30 seconds left to beat Georgia, or Chris Davis' game-winning 109 yard missed field goal return against Alabama with no time left, the Tigers got it done in the most amazing of fashions.
But Auburn can't consistently rely on unprecedented plays. Perhaps the Tigers were simply a team of destiny last year - beneficiaries of all the breaks falling their way. Unfortunately for Auburn, teams that depend on luck have a habit of running out of horseshoes eventually.
The SEC is a straight-up juggernaut
Likely the biggest impediment to the Tigers mirroring last year's win total, is the conference itself. Between Oct. 4 and Nov. 15, Auburn will play LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Georgia in six consecutive games - as hard a stretch as you'll find in the nation.
Add in the Iron Bowl against Alabama in their regular season finale, plus the aforementioned Week 3 matchup with Kansas State, and the Tigers play seven games total against teams in the AP preseason Top 25, with Mississippi State barely outside the rankings.
History does not favor Auburn, as no SEC champion has been able to repeat since Tennessee in 1998. Even the Crimson Tide, who won back-to-back national titles in 2011 and 2012, were unable to capture the conference championship both years.
The Tigers will be a very good team in 2014, and have a chance to remain near the top of the conference. Playing up to last year's performance will be challenging, though, likely requiring a Heisman Trophy-winning season for quarterback Nick Marshall.