March Madness Sweet 16: Best bets for the Midwest Region semis
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The South Region has a double-digit seed looking to keep an improbable run going and a legitimate heavyweight tilt between two of the top teams of the last decade. The Midwest Region might somehow be more compelling, with two teams and their coaches facing their ghosts along with a tough opponent. What effect that has on the games is impossible to quantify, but Matt Russell and Sam Oshtry break down who they like Friday night.
(5) Gonzaga vs. (1) Purdue (-5.5, 154.5)
Sam's best bet: Purdue (-5.5)
Yes, I've seen the stats about how bad Purdue and Matt Painter have been against the spread in the Sweet 16. However, those trends are irrelevant in this game. Purdue has been on a mission of vengeance since its 2023 Round of 64 upset loss to a No. 16 seed.
The Boilermakers won their first two tournament games by an average margin of 33.5. This squad is focused on the ultimate prize. Gonzaga is a step above Grambling State and Utah State, but the Bulldogs are a great matchup for Purdue.
Gonzaga's offensive efficiency is as high over the last few weeks as it has been all season, but its win in the Round of 32 was over a depleted and broken Kansas team.
The Bulldogs have the size to compete with Zach Edey, but what makes Purdue so special is it doesn't solely rely on Edey anymore. The Boilermakers' inside-out offense can kill defenses in multiple ways. Purdue's backcourt is significantly better and deeper than Gonzaga's.
Gonzaga generates 2-pointers at a high rate, but that won't be enough to keep up with the country's best 3-point shooting team. Unless Purdue goes ice-cold from long range against a below-average 3-point defense, the Boilermakers will cruise to the Elite Eight.
Matt's best bet: Gonzaga (+5.5)
Bettors' fear of going against a 1-seed permeates through the Sweet 16 - where those seeds, propped up on easy first-weekend games, often go to die. As we see each year, it gets real in prime time. Gonzaga's sluggish nonconference effort and early upset in WCC play, along with its lack of a high-end NBA prospect, has not only thrown many off its scent as a Final Four contender but depressed its metrics and rating in the betting market. Purdue's been dominant but can be beaten by a team that runs a calculated offense, has the collective length to defend Edey, and won't foul. The Bulldogs can do all these things better than most. Getting points with Mark Few after having time to prepare against Painter is appealing, too.
(3) Creighton vs. (2) Tennessee (-3, 143.5)
Matt's best bet: Tennessee (-3 or better)
In Round 2, Tennessee should have lost to Texas, while Creighton was all but beaten by Oregon, but the two circumstances couldn't have been more diametrically opposite. The Vols should have lost because, for reasons that are impossible to figure out, they missed 20 of their first 21 threes. Yet, they still led the Longhorns the entire way. Even a bad shooting day - versus the historically atrocious that we saw - would have turned that game into a blowout. Meanwhile, the Bluejays didn't get called for a shooting foul for 40-plus minutes in their double-overtime win, as the Ducks' first free throw came with less than a minute to go.
The game opened Tennessee -2 - a fair spread based on the team's offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. The reason I'm willing to take a slightly disadvantageous line is that the matchup looks to favor the Volunteers beyond the numbers. Perhaps needless to say, a move up to -3 is no surprise, and though I'm already on the Vols to win the region, unlike Arizona, I'll lay the points in the Sweet 16.
The Bluejays won't outrebound the Vols, and with more than Oregon's two offensive threats, Tennessee's offense will force Creighton to defend more efficiently, and the Vols won't tire late. Defensively, the Volunteers are fourth in defending the rim and 3-point line, which spells trouble for Creighton.
It's not the best number from what was available, but I'm on record as willing to give three points with the Vols. Barring their ice-cold shooting extending another week and moving across the country, Tennessee should win and cover comfortably.
Sam's best bet: Tennessee (-3)
This might be the most exciting game of the weekend. When Creighton's offense is firing, it's the country's most unstoppable and aesthetically pleasing. But that's not an every-game occurrence for the Bluejays, who play the nation's third-best defense Friday.
If Tennessee solely relied on its defense to carry it like some of Rick Barnes' previous teams, it would be hard to trust. But the Vols have superstar Dalton Knecht and a more reliable offense than in previous years. As Matt pointed out, Tennessee's cold shooting shouldn't continue into this weekend.
This has the makings of a tournament classic, but Tennessee should pull away late.
Find Matt and Sam's take on the South Region here.