Do's and Don'ts for picking the perfect NCAA tournament bracket
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The field is finally set for the NCAA tournament, meaning everyone can get deep into previews to pick their bracket.
Before filling out what upsets are going to happen and who will emerge as the Final Four teams, let's check out some do's and don'ts of picking your bracket.
DO - Pick a 12-seed to upset a 5-seed
Picking a 12-seed to upset a 5-seed is a popular move every year and there's a good reason why. In the past 16 NCAA tournaments, a 12-seed has knocked off a 5-seed in 15, with 2007 being the only exception. Both Baylor and Purdue fell as 5-seeds last year. This year's matchups are:
| No. 5 seed | No. 12 seed | Point Spread (No. 5) |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia | UNC-Wilmington | -8.5 |
| Iowa State | Nevada | -6.5 |
| Notre Dame | Princeton | -7 |
| Minnesota | Middle Tennessee | +1 |
DON'T - Pick that 12-seed to advance any further
Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, only 26 percent of 12-seeds that upset a 5-seed have followed that up with another win. Missouri made a run to the Elite Eight in 2002, but that's the furthest a 12-seed has gotten. Pick the upset in round one, but get back to taking the chalk in round two.
DO - Pick a No. 1 seed to win the title
It's certainly fun to think outside the box and be that person with a wacky bracket, but there's a reason teams are given a No. 1 seed - they are really freakin' good. A No. 1 seed has captured the NCAA championship in eight of the last 12 years and 20 times overall since 1985. This year's options at the No. 1 slot are Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, and North Carolina.
DON'T - Pick a team that lost early in the conference tournament
To many teams conference tournaments seem like a trivial exercise, but they have actually done a fairly good job of predicting winners over recent years. In the last 25 years, no team that lost before the semifinals of its conference tournament has won the NCAA championship. That logic would eliminate Kansas, Louisville, and Baylor from the top three seeds.
DO - Pick ACC teams to go deep in the bracket
There are nine teams from the ACC in the NCAA tournament this year, and it's probably a safe bet that a high number will be in the Sweet 16. Six ACC teams qualified for last year's Sweet 16 with four making the Elite Eight. North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, and Florida State are all top-three seeds this year, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see any of those squads make a deep run.
DON'T - Pick every 2-seed to make the Sweet 16
Remember last season when No. 15 Middle Tennessee knocked off No. 2 Michigan State in the first round? Turns out it's not that shocking for a two-seed to struggle. In each of the last seven tournaments, and 19 of the past 20, a two-seed has failed to make it past the round of 32.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)