Thunder bet on culture over NBA experience in hiring Billy Donovan
Billy Donovan is leaving Civium in moribus rei publicae salus behind and may well be adopting Audentes Fortuna Iuvat.
The former is the motto of the University of Florida, where Donovan has been the men's basketball head coach since 1996. His tenure ended Thursday, with Donovan making the long-anticipated jump to the NBA and signing a five-year contract with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder, meanwhile, appear to be embracing risk, hoping that, as the maxim recommended for Donovan suggests, fortune helps those daring.
Make no mistake, general manager Sam Presti is being plenty bold in hiring Donovan, who has exactly zero NBA experience beyond an aborted flirtation with the Orlando Magic in 2007. Donovan's had plenty of college success, winning two national championships and amassing a 502-206 record, 14 NCAA tournament appearances and seven Elite Eight appearances in 21 seasons, but the track record of NCAA-to-NBA jumps is spotty.
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The risk extends far beyond whether or not Donovan, a strong recruiter and leader-of-men type of coach, can adjust tactically to the professional game and push a very strong team that came within three wins of the championship in 2012 to the next level.
This is a hire that Presti reportedly made without the input of stars Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka, an enormous roll of the dice considering all three will hit unrestricted free agency in the next two summers.
The franchise's immediate priority beyond winning is to ensure that Durant, the league's reigning Most Valuable Player and one of the best two or three players in the world, chooses to stay in Oklahoma City long term. Durant is a free agent following the 2015-16 season, and while he publicly supported the organization's decision to let go of Scott Brooks, with whom Durant had a good relationship, hiring a replacement without his input is a sizable gamble.
Durant has reportedly spoken to former Donovan players - the NBA is littered with them - and developed a "generally positive" opinion of the hire. He has no incentive to make a commitment to the franchise before the end of next season, what now amounts to a major win-now season for the Thunder and an intense evaluatory one for Durant.
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While Durant's status and happiness are paramount, Donovan will have to work quickly to foster buy-in from Westbrook and Ibaka, too. Each hits free agency in 2017 and should Durant bolt, there's no saying how loyal they'll remain to the franchise.
The question now becomes not whether Donovan will tweak Brooks' defensive system - the Thunder were a middle-of-the-pack defensive team amid myriad injuries this year but ranked fifth in 2013-14 - or what offense Donovan will employ - hopefully a more creative one than Brooks - but how quickly Donovan can earn the fidelity of his stars.
In hiring a coach without NBA experience, Presti is risking that Donovan's obvious fit with the organization's culture and ideals provides the necessary amount of synergy for a seamless transition. Here's Presti on his reasons for choosing Donovan, with whom he reportedly already has a close relationship:
His emotional intelligence, commitment to the concept of team, and relentless approach to incremental improvement have allowed him to bring his players together and establish lasting relationships through competitive success. Billy's core values and alignment with our culture and community, as well as his proven tactical abilities, make him an ideal addition to the Thunder organization.
There's little in there about in-game strategy, utilizing Durant more at power forward, teaching Dion Waiters how to hit an open-court layup or anything else between the lines on the hardwood. The Thunder hired two of Donovan's staff members in the last year and appear to have cast a narrow net in searching for the third coach in franchise history.
Presti identified his man early and moved forward quickly to land him, without input from the superstar who holds the fate of the franchise in his hands in 14 months. Nobody can purport to know how Donovan will do behind the bench at the next level, like nobody can deny the enormity of Presti's gamble.