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Josh Smith rises for Rockets as Rondo fades for Mavericks

Tim Fuller / USA TODAY Sports

As the Houston Rockets converted lob after demoralizing lob in the fourth quarter of Tuesday's Game 2 victory over the rival Dallas Mavericks, with Josh Smith playing a starring role as Rajon Rondo languished on the bench, it became evident that this series features two teams headed in opposite directions.

Rondo and Smith aren't the be-all and end-all for the Mavs and Rockets - far from it - but the teams' distinctly diverging paths can in part be traced back to each team's gamble on the 29-year-olds.

After a season-and-a-half of uninspiring and undisciplined play from Smith in Detroit, many gave up on the former All-Defensive Team member. The Rockets, on the other hand, believed in his talent.

In many ways, Houston was the perfect fit for J. Smoove. He was joining a contender for which he could fill a reserve role, was joining best friend Dwight Howard, and, perhaps most importantly, was joining a team whose offensive game plan avoids the dreaded long twos that have proved to be Smith's kryptonite.

The percentage of Smith's field-goal attempts that come from 16-feet and out actually increased from 35.3 percent through 28 games with the Pistons to 38.9 percent with the Rockets.

The difference? In Detroit, nearly 26 percent of Smith's FGAs were long twos, while less than 10 percent were 3-point attempts. In Houston, where long twos go to die, less than seven percent of Smith's attempts are long twos, compared to 32 percent of his attempts coming from beyond the arc.

With Smith suddenly shooting a respectable 33 percent from deep, the three-happy Rockets can live with Smith's long-range bombs. The uptick in his 3-point efficiency and the elimination of his in-between game saw his Effective Field Goal Percentage jump from 40.3 in Detroit to 49.1 in Houston.

Given the Rockets' place at the forefront of the statistical revolution, it's unlikely any of this was lost on Daryl Morey and co. when they decided to pursue the bought-out veteran. There was also the silver lining of Smith's playmaking ability. As he slogged through what looked like another wasted season with the Pistons, Smith was passing and assisting at career rates.

The Mavericks are painfully aware of those playmaking abilities following a nine-assist performance on Tuesday that saw Smith and Howard carve Dallas up using a unique 4/5 pick-and-roll.

While Smith took a beating from fans and media before his move, Rondo's career has been in an equally concerning downward trajectory following a torn ACL in 2013.

Rondo 2013-2015 PPG APG RPG SPG TS% ORtg DRtg
9.8 8.5 5.5 1.3 45.2 96 106

If the Rockets successfully gambled on Smith's remaining talent, why haven't the Mavs been able to do the same with a four-time All-Star?

For one, trading for Rondo thinned out the team's frontcourt and took valuable spacing away from a Dallas attack that was scoring at an all-time rate as shooters spotted up around Monta Ellis-led pick-and-rolls. But that much was to be expected. The level at which the Rondo-Mavericks partnership has failed could not have been.

The major difference, it seems, is that the Rockets placed a small ($2 million) bet on Smith's talent proving its worth in a decreased role on a fitting team. The Mavs made a larger (asset-sacrificing) gamble on Rondo's waning talent returning to him while filling a significant role on a team he didn't seamlessly fit into.

The next team to gamble on the ornery point guard should keep that in mind.

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