FIBA semifinal preview: France and Serbia fight to continue unlikely runs
The United States await an opponent in the FIBA World Cup gold medal game on Sunday, and it's a pair of somewhat unlikely teams doing battle for the opportunity on Friday at 4 p.m. ET.
Neither France nor Serbia were really expected to be semifinalists in the tournament, despite appreciable basketball cultures. France, ranked eighth by FIBA, is playing without point guard and top star Tony Parker, while Serbia, ranked 11th, has but a single NBA player on their roster in center Miroslav Raduljica.
What's more, the two teams were unimpressive in the group stage. Both played in Spain's Group A pool, with France finishing 3-2 and Serbia finishing a disappointing 2-3. Each bucked the group stage trend in the quarterfinals, with France upsetting Spain 65-52 and Serbia stomping group-mate Brazil 84-56.
Offense against defense
In each case, the quarterfinal match-up signified a team peaking at the right time.
France surrendered 71.4 points per outing in the group stage but has found it's footing as a unit, allowing just 116 points over two elimination round games. Those two games, by the way, were against teams that averaged 85.4 points an outing between them. As a result, France ranks as the tournament's fourth-best defense on a per-possession basis.
Serbia, meanwhile, played well offensively in the group stage with 77.4 points a game but have turned that up even higher, scoring 174 over two elimination games. Those games were against stingy outfits that combined to average just 68.2 points against, and Serbia now boasts the tournament's fourth-best offense.
[Stats courtesy John Schuhmann]
Friday's semi-final has the makings of an "unstoppable force against the immovable object" kind of outing, and it will be interesting to see what side can set the tone early (though both play at glacial paces).
Who you should know
As mentioned, the Serbians only have but one NBA player on their roster. Raduljica is the guy to look for, and breakout defensive performer Rudy Gobert will likely draw that assignment for France. Raduljica has averaged 13.9 points on 55.1 percent shooting in the tournament, but Gobert helped keep the Gasol brothers in check and should be up to the task.
Milos Teodosic is the other player to keep an eye on for Serbia. The 27-year-old point guard is averaging 12.6 points and 4.3 assists, creating easy opportunities for teammates, who have hit 35.8 percent of threes. Teodosic himself has been a man afire from long range, hitting 17-of-38, a 44.7 percent clip.
The other way, Serbia will surely be aware of the playmaking of Boris Diaw, who pairs with Thomas Heurtel to anchor an offense heavy on ball movement and creativity. Diaw is averaging 7.9 points, 4.1 rebounds and 3.9 assists and can step out to hit the FIBA three, while Heurtel is averaging 8.9 points and 4.1 assists and shooting 53.3 percent from the floor.
The toughest aspect for the Serbians may be deciding who to focus in on for key defensive possessions. No French player is averaging double-figure points, with Nicolas Batum, Joffrey Lauvergne, Heurtel, Diaw, Antoine Diot, Mickael Gelabale and Evan Fournier all averaging between 6.9 and 9.9 points. That's a lot of different options to keep an eye on, and it will require a team-wide commitment to defense and the sharpest of rotations (a word of warning: keep an eye out for back-door cuts).
[Stats courtesy FIBA]
Could either team beat the U.S.?
The Americans were supposed to face Spain in the finals. That's how it was drawn up, that's how it was hyped, and the U.S. are disappointed that it's not a reality. That might mean the Americans can be caught sleeping on Sunday, but the reality is that the U.S. will be heavy favorites, and any other champion would represent a pretty major upset.
Serbia enters the semifinal a 2.5-point favorite over the French, but the U.S. are currently 1-to-50 favorites to win the entire tournament. Friday's semifinal should be a lot of fun, and France in particular would be a fun match-up against the American frontcourt, but most would suggest Friday's game is for the silver medal.