What Carmelo Anthony staying in New York means for the Knicks and the East
No one can fault Carmelo Anthony for spurning teams like the Bulls, Rockets and Lakers to collect a ton more money playing basketball in New York City than he could have made elsewhere. It's hard to fault the Knicks, too - one of the NBA's marquee franchises and one so starved for success - for not wanting to part with one of the game's biggest names and more marketable stars.
Anthony and the Knicks finalizing a five-year, $120 million-plus contract may not make as much basketball sense as it does practical sense, however.
Anthony is a great offensive player just one year removed from a scoring title, whose averaged 28 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.0 steals, a 45-39-84 shooting split, and a PER of 24.6 over the last two seasons. He's one of the few basketball players alive capable of the kind of nights Knicks fans witnessed when he dropped 62 points on the Bobcats.
But 'Melo is a one-way star who needs a lot of help from a capable supporting cast to mask his costly deficiencies if he's ever going to be a top player on a championship contending team, and committing more than $120 million to him over the first half of his 30's raises concerns considering how far away the Knicks are from even sniffing contention right now.
The Knicks are no doubt hoping to change that by making a huge splash in 2015 free agency, since they do still have plenty of flexibility in the future. But there seems to be a pretty good chance that Kevin Love is off the market by then and LaMarcus Aldridge sounds like he's leaning towards staying in Portland. That's not to say the Knicks don't have a shot at those guys, but they shouldn't be counting on landing one of them, and outside of those two and perhaps Rajon Rondo, 2015 free agency will be nothing like the 2014 edition.
There is, of course, Kevin Durant in 2016. But if the Knicks can't land anyone in 2015 and the team remains stuck in the middle - not good enough to truly contend, not quite bad enough to cash in on the Draft - are they really going to be a better option for Durant than the Thunder or more competitive teams with the same cap space as New York?
As painful as it would be in the short term, the best thing for the Knicks might have been to trade Anthony once the 2013-14 season was clearly lost, or in the immediate aftermath of it, to acquire assets in the form of draft picks and young players. Sure, they would have been terrible next season, but 2015 is also the only year they own their own first round pick in the next couple of seasons. Trading 'Melo and stinking it up for another year or so might have been the Knicks' best shot at something sustainable in the future.
For now, Anthony keeps the Knicks relevant, and with Phil Jackson in charge and already making some encouraging moves, the Knicks could easily jump back into the Eastern Conference playoff race immediately. It's just tough to see a path to real contention in the near future.
It's quite possible Anthony could simply be guaranteeing himself his max money - or close to it - now, before eventually forcing his way to a contender later. But depending on how his own play holds up and how the Knicks fare with him, there are no guarantees a 30-something-year-old Melo, with near-max money left on his deal for a number of years, will be as tradeable a year or two from now.
Anthony staying put it New York is good for competitive balance in the Eastern Conference, however, as with Carmelo choosing the Knicks rather than joining Chicago or Miami, for example, the Eastern Conference should be as wide open a conference as we've seen in recent memory.
A LeBron-led Cavs team with Kyrie Irving and other youngsters by his side should make Cleveland the favorite right now, the Bulls finally getting a healthy Derrick Rose back, adding Pau Gasol and perhaps making another move or two (Mirotic?), should have them in the mix again, the Pacers remain capable of contending in the lesser conference, and a Bosh-Wade combination should at least keep the Heat competitive.
But there is no clear cut, superior team among those four, and each faces some questions with regards to their status as actual title contenders. With that, teams like the Raptors, Wizards, Hawks, Nets, Hornets and heck, even the Knicks given James Dolan's obliviousness, could enter the season with a Conference Finals berth in their pre-season aspirations.
The quality of basketball still won't touch the West, but a weak East that's wide open is a hell of a lot better than a weak East with one obviously superior team. This should be fun.