What Kyle Lowry's return means to the Raptors

In yet another indication that the Toronto Raptors have turned a page under Masai Ujiri (and Tim Leiweke), the team has agreed to terms on a new four-year, $48-million contract with Kyle Lowry.

So much for the fear that Lowry might be the latest Raptors star to fly South.

Raptors fans aren't used to these kinds of positive free agency outcomes. Sure, Vince Carter and Chris Bosh both signed extensions to remain in Toronto beyond their rookie scale contracts, but Carter's ugly fallout with the team eventually led to one of the most lopsided trades in NBA history and Bosh left for Miami in his first taste of unrestricted free agency. Heck, Tracy McGrady's star passed through Toronto so quickly that some younger fans never even witnessed him in Raptors purple.

Lowry has a long way to go before his career can be mentioned in the same breath as those perennial All-Stars and potential Hall of Famers, but keeping him North of the border is a big win for the Raptors nonetheless.

The point guard's Raptors tenure has moved in precisely the opposite direction as those of his star predecessors. Lowry wasn't a drafted, homegrown talent in Toronto whose relationship with the city soured over time before departing in his prime. Rather, Lowry was traded to Toronto after a tumultuous few years in Houston and Memphis, struggled to stay healthy through a disappointing first year in town, reportedly clashed with head coach Dwane Casey and then was almost traded during his second season with the team as Ujiri contemplated taking a strategic step back in the standings.

And then, after all of that, he put together one of the best individual seasons in franchise history to lead the Raptors to their first playoff berth in six years while becoming a fan favorite and ultimately re-signing with the team in his prime years (He turned 28 in March), reportedly spurning the Rockets, Lakers and maybe even the Heat in the process.

It's a Bizarro World for the Raptors, and fans are swooning.

There are risks associated with a lucrative, four-year deal for a player that came into the 2013-14 season with perceived attitude issues and health concerns that saw him miss 54 games over four years between the 2009-10 season and 2012-13 season. Skeptics will surely point to Lowry's 2013-14 campaign as a typical 'contract year' performance.

But a pre-season meeting with a candid Ujiri got through to him, Lowry himself admittedly matured as a married man and father, and from a strictly basketball perspective, he had shown flashes of brilliance in the past that teased at the player he could become. He became that player this past season with the Raptors, averaging 17.9 points, 7.4 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 1.5 steals while registering a 20.1 PER for a 48-win team.

Lowry finished eighth in Basketball Reference's Win Shares (with 11.7) and 10th in ESPN's Wins Above Replacement metric; that placed him third among point guards in both metrics, behind only Chris Paul and Stephen Curry. The only other guards in the Post-Jordan Era to post a season of 17, 7, 4 and 1 with a PER above 20 and double-digit Win Shares? Gary Payton, Jason Kidd, Chris Paul, Dwyane Wade, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry. Lowry was that good in 2013-14.

In his ranking of free agents for ESPN, Kevin Pelton's projection system projected Lowry to be the second-most productive free agent next season (11.5 WARP) and the third-best over the next three years, behind only LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.

Taking into account those impressive numbers, his importance to the franchise, and his age, a four-year, $48-million contract that will make Lowry the eighth-highest paid point guard in the league next season seems like solid value for Toronto. Consider, too, the money being thrown at lesser players so far in free agency - punctuated by 30-year-old Marcin Gortat receiving a fifth year at the same $12-million-per-year rate in Washington.

The Raptors probably won't have much (if any) cap flexibility in 2014-15, but their books beyond that are in fine shape, as they could have Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Ross, Steve Novak, Lucas Nogueira and new draft pick Bruno Caboclo under contract for 2015-16 while still enjoying tons of cap space next summer. They could even re-sign restricted free agents Patrick Patterson and Greivis Vasquez in the next couple of weeks and still have plenty of room to add a significant piece in 2015.

Ujiri, Lowry and co. will have their work cut out for them as they look to take the hardest step of going from merely a good playoff team to a great, contending team over the next few years. But for the first time maybe ever, the Raptors found themselves at a free agency crossroads and managed to come away from it having taken a step forward instead of being kicked three steps back.

For this franchise and this fan base, that's a start.