4 questions about the fallout from Joel Embiid's injury
Joel Embiid's right foot injury has thrown a wrench into the top of the 2014 Draft with the event just a week away. Here are four questions to now consider heading into next Thursday.
1. How concerned should we be about Embiid's long term health?
Embiid has a stress fracture to the navicular bone in his right foot, an injury we don't usually hear about. But when we do, it's pretty serious. For one, the initial recovery time means we don't know if Embiid will be ready for the start of the season. More importantly, as Kevin Pelton laid out, players like Yao Ming, Bill Walton and Curtis Borchardt have never been the same - durability wise - after sustaining the injury.
Michael Jordan returned just fine after suffering a similar injury, as did Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but the other names on that list will surely scare teams looking for a long-term, franchise changing talent at the top of the draft.
2. How far could Embiid drop?
It's hard to see Embiid tumbling too far down the Draft - most mocks still have him as a top-four pick - given how infrequently a true seven-footer with his potential comes along. But still, when you're considered a likely No. 1 pick, even dropping a few spots could be the difference between millions of guaranteed dollars over the course of your first contract based on the NBA's rookie salary scale.
Perhaps Sam Hinkie and Philadelphia, with two top-10 picks, feel they can take the risk on Embiid's potential at No. 3. If he slips past Cleveland, Milwaukee and Philly, Orlando at No. 4 seems to be the popular choice among the experts. Either way, it seems almost impossible that he would slip past the Lakers at No. 7 if he makes it that far.
It should also be noted that Embiid isn't totally out of the equation when it comes to the No. 1 pick.
Another question to ask might be if Embiid would consider it a blessing in disguise - provided he returns to full health of course - if this snafu sends him to Orlando, L.A. or Boston instead of Cleveland or Milwaukee.
3. How else might Embiid's injury affect the Draft?
In addition to sinking the big man's stock and giving other prospects a chance at being selected higher, Embiid's injury could spur teams slotted lower to attempt trading up in a bid to acquire him.
When he was expected to go No. 1, it was tough to envision a lower slotted team putting together a trade package significant enough to entice the Cavs without a superstar name. If Embiid is going to fall a few spots, however, and especially if he's going to fall out of the top five, a team who never even considered they had a shot at him now has a much better chance of putting together a package that might see them end up in a spot where Embiid is available.
For example, the Celtics, who are currently slotted to pick sixth.
4. Which prospects benefit the most?
The obvious names are Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker, as with Embiid seemingly out of the mix, the No. 1 pick should once again come down to a debate between the merits of those two youngsters. But the other names to watch are point guards Dante Exum and Marcus Smart.
Most had Exum slotted in at No. 4 to the Magic, but the Australian seems like a more likely top-three pick now, and maybe even a top-two pick. Heck, if recent history is any indication and the Cavs remain as unpredictable as always on Draft night, No. 1 can't yet be ruled out when it comes to Exum. As for Smart, if Exum is off the board and the Magic still fancy a point guard over the risk associated with Embiid, perhaps both lead guards end up selected in the top four.
The top eight was always expected to include Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Exum, Smart, Noah Vonleh, Aaron Gordon and Julius Randle, with Dario Saric potentially in the mix as well. Any one of those names could benefit from a more drastic Embiid tumble than any of us are envisioning, and if the drop is severe, perhaps even an extreme dark horse name like big Louisiana Lafayette point guard Elfrid Payton could be laughing come Draft night.