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Kawhi Leonard is progressing just fine

Steve Mitchell / USA TODAY Sports / Reuters

When a player drops 29 points and helps contain LeBron James in an NBA Finals game before his 23rd birthday, he's going to raise some eyebrows, as Kawhi Leonard did Tuesday night in Game 3.

For Gregg Popovich and countless others who consider Leonard the future of the storied Spurs franchise, it was yet another piece of validation, as Leonard's arrival and emergence in San Antonio has played a big part in the Spurs getting back to full title contention over the last three seasons.

Leonard's overall value compared to other young stars is tough to measure given that most youngsters with his potential are cast as No. 1 or No. 2 options on bad teams early in their careers, leading to inflated statistics and deflated win totals. Leonard, on the other hand, has maintained modest basic stats on a perennial contender, while slightly bumping his averages in almost every category each year.

On this year's edition of the Spurs, Leonard's career-high usage rate of 18.3 percent (the percentage of Spurs plays he used while on the floor) still ranked sixth among Spurs who logged at least 1000 minutes - behind Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Patty Mills and Marco Belinelli. Would Leonard's numbers be better and more indicative of his sky high potential with greater offensive opportunity on an inferior team, or would his development be hindered by being thrust into a position he wasn't ready for yet and without the Spurs' legendary development system?

We know Leonard's defense is already elite, but getting a handle on his offense is tougher given those challenging questions. I tried to find previous examples of young players under the age of 23 who have averaged 12 points per game with limited usage (under 20%) and exceptional efficiency (60.0 True Shooting Percentage or higher), to then see how those players fared with greater opportunity later in their careers, but found few such precedents.

The only other players to do so were Andrew Bynum, Buck Williams and Ronnie Brewer, and when you account for the fact that Leonard is a three-point shooter, no other player would make the list with him. And remember, while Leonard's efficiency will surely fall with increased usage - a general rule of basketball that's often proven - I limited my search to others with limited usage, so it's not like Leonard had an advantage in the search.

Leonard's offense is still a work in progress, and expecting him to dominate offensively (as some who witnessed his 29-point performance will now ask that he does consistently) isn't realistic. He's not yet the type of offensive force that can consistently create for himself and for others, but his ball handling continues to improve, and his assist percentage (the percentage of teammate field goals he assisted on while on the court) has increased from 6.6 as a rookie to 10.4 as a third-year player. The percentage of his field goals that are assisted has only dropped slightly, but that's just as much a result of so many of his field goals being catch-and-shoot threes than it is a lack of creation on his part.

Leonard has become a solid post-up option, especially when he recognizes a mismatch, and is about as effective a finisher within five feet as Dwyane Wade and Marc Gasol. He produced 1.05 points per possession in 94 isolation plays, according to Synergy Sports, and he's even shown that he can be effective in pick-and-roll opportunities. He can hit pull-up jumpers in opponents' faces, his 45.4 percent conversion rate from the midrange area ranked 21st out of 189 players who attempted at least 100 midrange shots this season, and he's been a consistent 37 percent three-point shooter in each of his three seasons.

Not to mention, Leonard is great in transition, where he can create opportunities for himself and teammates with his defense and rebounding ability (He had the same defensive rebound rate - 18.9% - as LeBron James this season), and can obviously finish at the rim. He's also a career 80 percent free throw shooter, and while his free throw attempts and free throw rate can certainly stand to improve, they figure to with increased usage and the aforementioned improved ball handling.

Considering how his game has already grown in three short seasons and the fact that he's being groomed in San Antonio of all places, is there any reason to doubt that his already promising offensive package won't develop over the next few years? Barring injury - Leonard has missed 40 games over the last two seasons - there is not.

If that offense does continue to blossom into the complete package Leonard is capable of producing, there's no capping his ceiling. Remember, even without the scoring ability, this is already an All-Defensive 2nd Team member with a plethora of playoffs and Finals experience before the age of 23.

Performances like Tuesday night's in Miami get us all wound up, make us want to fast track his development and cause pundits to wonder where that production is from Leonard every other night - like Games 1 and 2 of these Finals, for example.

But if you take a step back and examine both his metrics and on-court progression, even without the gaudy numbers, it's quite clear Kawhi Leonard is developing as he should into an NBA star for years to come.

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