With Ibaka out, Spurs benefit against cursed Thunder

You may not believe in Lil B's now three-year-old Based Gods Curse on Kevin Durant, but whether by his hand or the simple luck of the draw, Oklahoma City's title hopes have taken a major hit due to a mid-playoff injury for the second year in a row.

Last year it was Russell Westbrook with a torn meniscus in the first round. This year it's Serge Ibaka, who is expected to miss the remainder of the postseason with a calf injury suffered in Thursday's Game 6 against the Clippers.

In the aftermath of OKC's elimination of the Clippers, which included playing much of Game 6 without Ibaka, I wrote that perhaps Durant and Westbrook are just so good on their own that they alone can help the Thunder withstand any obstacles coming their way. Well we're about to find out if that's the case.

In 13 playoff games, the Thunder have outscored the Grizzlies and Clippers by 5.7 points per 48 minutes with Ibaka on the floor compared to being outscored by 2.1 points per 48 with the big man on the bench, according to NBA.com. Their defensive rating has actually gotten better with Ibaka off the floor in the playoffs after it remained unchanged at 101 points allowed per 100 possessions in the regular season regardless of whether he was on or off, but it's on the offensive end where the metrics suggest Ibaka's presence has been felt.

OKC's offense performed slightly better with Ibaka on the court during the regular season (108.4-107.4), but in the playoffs, an offensive rating of 101.3 with Ibaka on the bench jumps to 111.0 with him in the game. As a reference, that would be the different between a bottom-10 offense and a No. 1 offense, and it should be no surprise. As solid and dependable as Nick Collison and Steven Adams are, the drop-off from an All-Star quality big man is substantial, particularly when that big man has some range and can space the floor like Ibaka can in an offense that desperately needs such spacing around Durant and Westbrook.

The Thunder's best hope at this point would probably be to play with a small lineup featuring Durant at power forward with one of Collison or Adams manning the middle, or to go with both Westbrook and Reggie Jackson in the backcourt, along with Durant and both of Collison and Adams. But it's tough to place trust in Scott Brooks' rotation management, and one less big man probably means more Kendrick Perkins, in some capacity, regardless.

That's bad news for the Thunder.

For the Spurs, after losing to the Thunder in the 2012 Western Conference Final, they've now benefitted from a significant Thunder injury in back-to-back years (although they never actually met in the playoffs last season). Oklahoma City, who beat San Antonio in all four meetings this season (The Thunder contributed 20 percent of the Spurs' losses), will no doubt hope that Tony Parker's hamstring strain makes him vulnerable against a Westbrook/Jackson backcourt, but even that seems like it's grasping at straws at this point.

The Spurs have home court advantage, more depth and the vastly superior tactician on the sidelines against a now undermanned Thunder team. In other words, it looks like it will take the biggest stroke of Durant/Westbrook brilliance yet to derail San Antonio's march to yet another Conference title.