Which teams can crash a Pacers/Heat East Final?
The recent struggle of the Indiana Pacers has been covered numerous times both in this space and others, but the general assumption has been that the team will eventually straighten things out and eventually get back on track for their highly anticipated Eastern Conference Final rematch with the Heat.
Beating Miami a couple of weeks ago to give themselves a three-game cushion atop the Eastern Conference standings seemed to at least stem the tide, but the Pacers have lost five of six since then and now find themselves a full game behind the Heat and two behind in the loss column with nine days of the regular season remaining. A loss on Friday night in Miami in the fourth and final meeting between the two teams would all but assure Indiana of the No. 2 seed they so desperately wanted to avoid.
The thing is, for the majority of the season, the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the East were merely supposed to decide home court advantage in that aforementioned Indiana/Miami East Final rematch. Now, we've arrived at a point where the Pacers need to be concerned about just getting to that rematch.
What was once thought of as a slump in Indiana has now become a half-season worth of mediocrity, as after starting the season a league best 33-7, the Pacers have gone just 20-18 since, good for the 16th-best record over that time. In other words, the Pacers have been a middle of the pack, mediocre team now for as long as they were a great team to start the season.
In addition, the Pacers have been just the seventh-best Eastern Conference team over that 38-game stretch, behind the Bulls, Raptors, Heat, Nets, Bobcats and Wizards. The worst signs of all during this half-season slide? They have a negative point-differential of -1.2, a road record of 7-13 and a 29th-ranked offense that scores just 99.4 points per 100 possessions, which bests only the atrocious 76ers' attack.
The talent and defensive ability is still there, and it shouldn't surprise anyone if the Pacers get back on track between now and the first round of the playoffs. In addition, they are still a 53-25 team when you look at the season as a whole, and they will still enter the postseason as rightful favorites to get to the East Final, which will likely open in Miami.
But having said that, it's nowhere near the sure thing we once thought it was, and a handful of one time Eastern Conference afterthoughts now have legitimate visions of a deep postseason run. With that, here are five Eastern Conference teams who could replace the Pacers in the East Final.
Toronto Raptors
Everyone knows about the remarkable turnaround that's gone on in Toronto since the Rudy Gay trade, but do people really realize how good this team has been for the last four months? Their 39-20 record since then is only a half-game behind Miami for tops in the East over that span and the sixth-best record in the league, with only the Spurs, Clippers, Thunder, Heat and Rockets outplaying them over the last three quarters of a season. The new iteration of the Raptors also have a top-10 offense, a top-10 defense and a near top-10 rebound rate.
Most importantly, Toronto has taken two of three games against the Pacers since the trade, Jonas Valanciunas seems to be peaking while Roy Hibbert is fading (though Valanciunas now has to deal with a DUI charge) and if the standings hold true heading into the postseason, those two teams would be on a second round collision course assuming they can each beat one of the Wizards or Bobcats.
Speaking of the Bobcats...
Charlotte Bobcats
Obviously no one expects the Bobcats to win a round - something the franchise has never done - let alone win two rounds to advance to the Eastern Conference Final. But this isn't the laughingstock of a scenario it once was. Charlotte is only a game behind Washington for sixth in the East with a game against the Wizards coming Wednesday night. If they can snag the No. 6 seed and the Raptors remain third, the Bobcats will open the playoffs against a team they went 3-0 against this season.
If they remain in the No. 7 spot, then the league's sixth-ranked defense will get a chance to shine against that aforementioned sputtering Pacers offense. Both Charlotte and Indiana possess excellent defenses, both teams prefer a snail's pace and both score just 101.2 points per 100 possessions, so a Pacers/Bobcats series would be an extremely low scoring affair. Less possessions and less scoring give the less talented team a greater chance to pull off an upset. In addition, you can make the argument that with the way he's playing right now, Al Jefferson would be the best player in the series.
If the seeding remained the same as it is right now, the Bobcats would have to emerge from a group of four teams that includes the Pacers, Raptors and Wizards to make the East Final. Is it likely? Of course not. But it also can't be completely dismissed. The worst thing for Charlotte's chances might be if Chicago or Brooklyn steal the third seed from Toronto.
Chicago Bulls, Brooklyn Nets
If we're talking about likelihood of beating Indiana in a seven-game series and advancing to the Eastern Conference Final, the much more experienced Bulls and Nets would be better bets than the Raptors, Bobcats and Wizards. But so much is determined by seeding and matchups, and if the Bulls and Nets remain in the four/five spots, they will ensure that one eliminates the other before likely having to face Miami in the second round.
The Bulls are the best coached, most defensive team of the five in question, Joakim Noah might be the best player across the five teams and they're a pretty ridiculous 33-14 since the New Year.
The Nets are the only Eastern Conference team with a better winning percentage than Chicago since the New Year (.711-.702), their funky small-ball lineups seem to throw a wrench into opposing teams' plans and if healthy, they'll boast arguably the most talented Eastern Conference lineup this side of Miami. Add in the fact that there are no back-to-backs in the playoffs and that veteran talent becomes all the more scary.
The Nets have taken all three meetings with the Heat this season while the Bulls have gone 2-2 against the champs, but the Bulls have also taken two of three from the Nets and project to have home court advantage in their first round rematch. Either way you slice it though, the best chance of advancing to the East Final these teams have is moving up to the three-seed to avoid each other in the first round and to avoid Miami in the second round. If they can avoid each other or the winner of their first round clash can avoid the Heat, one of these teams would stand the best chance of taking Indiana's expected spot in the East Final.
Washington Wizards
A Wizards/Raptors first round matchup, as is currently projected, would be a thrilling series involving two young, talented and inexperienced teams. The Wizards would certainly have a chance to beat Toronto, but they also might be the rare exception of a team who might prefer one of the Nets or Bulls, as crazy as that sounds. Washington went 1-3 vs. Toronto this season and a combined 5-1 against Brooklyn and Chicago, including taking all three meetings with the Nets.
The Wizards would seem to be the least likely of the five teams in question to make a run to the East Final, but if Nene is healthy and anchoring their defense, the backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal, not to mention the more experienced Marcin Gortat and Trevor Ariza, are more than capable of providing enough scoring to put a scare into any of the teams we've discussed.
The Wizards will have at least a puncher's chance against one of the Raptors, Bulls or Nets in the first round, but they'll have to hang onto the East's No. 6 seed to get that chance. If they fall to seventh, they'd have to pull off the mammoth upset of Indiana in the first round as opposed to the second.
If they do eventually find themselves in a matchup with the Pacers though, remember that Washington is tied with Dallas for the second-best three-point percentage in the league at 38.5 percent, while Indiana's poor three-point defense (They went from a league best 32.1% in their first 40 games to a 20th-ranked 37.1% since) has been one of the biggest reasons for their collapse.