Can the Magic come close to recouping value for Serge Ibaka?
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With Paul Millsap evidently off the market (for now) teams in need of a power forward upgrade turn their lonely eyes to Orlando's Serge Ibaka. To say that Magic general manager Rob Hennigan is in a tough spot of his own incompetent construction is an understatement; by acquiring Ibaka on draft night last summer for Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova, and Domantas Sabonis, he all but ensured he wouldn't recoup equal value if he dealt Ibaka later.
Why did the Magic feel the need to acquire Ibaka at a steep cost with Aaron Gordon burgeoning and Nikola Vucevic at center? Later adding Bismack Biyombo, Orlando went into the season trying to play Gordon at small forward, putting coach Frank Vogel in the dumbest televised situation he's been involved in since he spun a basketball on a toothbrush on Letterman as a child.
Now, with the Magic an extreme long-shot to make the playoffs and Ibaka staring at unrestricted free agency this summer, the time to move him is nigh. The most recent reports have the Toronto Raptors, Houston Rockets, and Miami Heat interested. While the shot-blocking four with floor-stretching capability would be a logical fit with Mike D'Antoni's squad, Houston could be limited in the assets it could give up (Corey Brewer, K.J. McDaniels, and a draft pick, anyone?)
As far as Miami goes, a logical move simply may swap Ibaka for Goran Dragic. But what would the Heat's long-term goal be there?
Related: Magic reportedly fielding calls from multiple teams on Ibaka
While Hennigan probably won't get back the value he originally gave up for Ibaka, there are both younger and more proven assets out there if the right trade partner is amenable.
To Nuggets for Emmanuel Mudiay, future draft pick
Denver Nuggets coach Mike Malone recently shot down a report that Emmanuel Mudiay was available, but there's some sense in this deal on both sides. While a good rebounding team, the Nuggets are at the bottom of the league defensively and could use another so-called "young veteran" like Ibaka on their roster.
The flip side is Denver would obviously want to re-sign him long term, something it would really need to sell the Congolese-Spanish citizen on. At age 27, this is Ibaka's big contract summer. Would he want to hitch his wagon to the Nuggets, a young team that feels like it could go in the right direction, but is no sure thing?
Mudiay's early limitations are known - much like incumbent Magic point guard Elfrid Payton, he's not a great shooter - but he's also just short of his 21st birthday and possesses considerable upside.
Ibaka to Celtics for Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, draft pick
Given the assets the Celtics possess, and New England fans' seemingly endless wait for Danny Ainge to make a major move, Boston is linked to every player in the NBA with a player efficiency rating over 15. This likely wouldn't be the Celtics' ideal acquisition, but logically, Hennigan should be phoning Ainge to the point of harassment.
The Magic appear desirous to upgrade from Payton at point guard, although Smart, like Mudiay, is a high-upside-work-in-progress. Both he and Crowder are the sort of defensively-strong players Vogel would covet. Of course, there is no way Boston would part with the Brooklyn Nets' No. 1 pick in this situation, but given the Celtics' vault full of other draft picks, something could be worked out.
Yet, would Boston really make this trade? It would front-load the front line, although Ibaka could theoretically co-exist spacing-wise with Al Horford. It's likely Ainge has other visions. But the question, as always with the Celtics, is what will their eventual play be?
Ibaka to Raptors for Terrence Ross, 1st-round pick
Post-Millsap, Ibaka has emerged as the next-best fantasy fit in Toronto. Make no mistake, however, this would still be an all-in move for the Raptors. Ibaka's free agency would coincide with that of Kyle Lowry and Patrick Patterson. Ideally, Raps GM Masai Ujiri would substitute DeMarre Carroll for Ross in this theoretical deal, but even a solid system coach like Vogel sees that Carroll has regressed both defensively and offensively.
Ujiri is known to be a fan of Ibaka, but again, Toronto's willingness to go for him now is likely dependent on the organization's summation of whether it moves the needle enough to take out the Cleveland Cavaliers. That's debatable. From Orlando's perspective, Ross is a supremely athletic wing on a good contract who is currently playing on the better side of a noted pendulum. The Raptors will also almost assuredly have two (non-lottery) first-round picks this summer, one of which would sweeten the pot.