Toronto's difficult decision with Kyle Lowry has simple answer
Giving a 31-year-old point guard a five-year maximum deal starting in the range of $30 million per year is the type of move that could cripple a franchise if it backfires.
That's the difficult decision ahead for the Toronto Raptors with respect to Kyle Lowry.
As expected, Toronto's star point guard plans to opt out of his contract next summer to explore free agency. And while Lowry's preference would be to stay in Toronto, the two-time All-Star knows he'll command a heavy price in a bullish market.
"I think it should be a situation where a guy shouldn’t have to talk to another team," Lowry said. "DeMar (DeRozan) didn’t have the chance to talk to another team ... For me, I think that at 12:01 a.m. on July 1 - something should be close. If not, I’m open to seeing what else is out there."
There are no pretenses: it will cost the max to keep Lowry. Both he and the Raptors are well aware.
These have the potential to be the halcyon days for a historically inept Raptors franchise, and it's all come on the back of Lowry.
Toronto's resurgence has come as a direct result of Lowry's late-career breakout. He reached new heights after inheriting the team in the wake of the Rudy Gay trade in 2013.
Lowry put his iffy health and coach-killer reputation behind him as he developed into one of the best two-way players in the world. Only LeBron James (46.9) tops Lowry (30.1) in win shares for Eastern Conference players over the last three seasons.
Consequently, the Raptors have the most wins in the East since 2013, and they rank fifth league-wide behind stalwarts Golden State, San Antonio, Los Angeles, and Oklahoma City.
Last season was a high point for both Lowry and the Raptors. He posted career highs in points (21.2), steals (2.1), and threes (2.8) which in turn led to the Raptors setting a franchise high with 56 wins.
The Raptors went on to take two games off the eventual NBA champions before bowing out in the Eastern Conference finals.
It's too much to say Lowry did it all on his own. DeMar DeRozan has grown leaps and bounds in his own right, Jonas Valanciunas continues to be one of the league's most promising low-post players, Patrick Patterson is criminally underrated, and head coach Dwane Casey has built a stable locker room through it all.
But make no mistake: Lowry is the king piece. He's the one that makes it all work. Without him, there would be no playoff appearances, no franchise highs in wins, no revamped image. Letting Lowry walk would be letting go of the most successful era in Raptors history.
Aside from concerns of age-related decline, the Raptors also need to mind their ceiling.
As constructed, the Raptors lack the requisite talent to dethrone James who is in a class of his own. Toronto pushed Cleveland to six games, but the Cavaliers won their four games by a combined 116 points.
Despite pushing Cleveland for wins in the regular season, despite evening their series 2-2, The East was never in doubt. Expect the same result to play out should the same two sides face off going forward.
Re-signing Lowry - although necessary - would push the Raptors toward luxury-tax territory. Hanging onto fellow free agent Patrick Patterson would further exacerbate Toronto's swollen cap sheet.
Without free agency as a viable path, the Raptors would therefore need to capitalize on a lopsided trade or some other unforeseen development to seriously challenge Cleveland. But teams like Boston, Denver, and Phoenix have far more appealing young assets to offer should a superstar become available, and as for Toronto's prospects, most are too young (Bruno Caboclo, Norman Powell) or too limited (Valanciunas, Terrence Ross) to develop into that missing third star.
Toronto is trying to take the difficult leap over the chasm between being very good and being great - and they have very little upward mobility. Keeping Lowry anchors them to what they already have.
The big-picture goal for every team is to win the title, but before the Raptors reach that level, general manager Masai Ujiri is trying to built a winning culture.
Unlike other teams who have gutted their rosters to align stars in free agency or tanked entire seasons to build through the draft, Ujiri has chosen to build through the middle. He inherited a jumbled roster three years ago, trimmed the fat, uncovered a star in Lowry, then added supporting pieces along the way.
Ujiri's reconstruction project doesn't quite resemble a championship contender just yet, but he has quietly set the foundation for sustained success. The Raptors love to speak of culture - specifically a winning culture - and each successive playoff run, each all-star appearance for Lowry and DeRozan, each 50-win season builds their reputation across the league.
Culture is a nebulous concept that's difficult to quantify, but it's already produced tangible results. Stars used to flee Toronto whenever possible - now the Raptors have no trouble keeping the likes of Lowry and DeRozan. They've also landed meetings with star free agents, and players like Jared Sullinger are even taking discounts to sign in Toronto.
All that speaks to culture, and if for nothing else, Ujiri has to re-sign Lowry to keep building upon that foundation.
"Kyle has been at the forefront of the Raptor movement," Ujiri told The Vertical. "How he goes, we go. He has helped establish a culture that will grow even more. We really appreciate that. He is a winner, and we want to win."