UFC 301 predictions: Will Erceg win title in 4th fight?

Ahead of Saturday's UFC 301 in Rio de Janeiro, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the main-card bouts.

Flyweight championship

Alexandre Pantoja (27-5)
vs.
Steve Erceg (12-1)

It's been less than a year since Pantoja captured UFC flyweight gold with a split-decision win over Brandon Moreno in theScore's 2023 Fight of the Year, but the Brazilian already has a chance to do something no flyweight champion has done since Demetrious Johnson: win consecutive title defenses.

To add a second title defense to his already impressive resume, Pantoja will have to get past an unlikely opponent who could be a lot more dangerous than his MMA accomplishments suggest. Erceg is an up-and-comer out of Australia who has been on the roster only since February 2023 but has already amassed three straight victories to earn the division's No. 10 ranking.

Beating the far more experienced Pantoja - in the champ's home country, with the most hostile crowd in the sport rooting against him, no less - is a tall order for Erceg. "AstroBoy" has shown flashes of brilliance in his three Octagon appearances - whether it'll be enough to uproot the entire 125-pound division is where this gets difficult.

Pantoja-Erceg will likely come down to where the fight predominantly takes place - and if the latter can get up from tricky positions. Pantoja is one of the division's best grapplers, boasting 10 submissions in 18 finishes as a pro. If Pantoja consistently and effectively uses his jiu-jitsu game, he'll frustrate Erceg with takedowns and ground control, and he might even be able to lock up a submission to send Erceg to the back of the line. But if Pantoja opts to stand and bang with his opponent, it might not go so well for him.

Though Erceg has yet to face anyone of Pantoja's caliber - his best win came against Matt Schnell in March - the 27-year-old has already displayed boxing fundamentals that few in this sport ever reach. Erceg is technical on the feet and has solid knockout power, and as the younger of the two, it wouldn't be surprising to see Erceg outlast Pantoja in a striking battle. Pantoja has shown questionable cardiovascular endurance in the past, though he generally finds a second wind.

Despite such a significant gap in experience and achievements, Pantoja-Erceg has the makings of a very competitive fight - and my gut is telling me the Rio crowd won't be happy when they walk out of Jeunesse Arena on Saturday night. Erceg will have to work hard to keep Pantoja off him, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say he can do that and will ultimately get the better of the American Top Team product in the back-and-forth exchanges on the feet. From an upset win in his UFC debut in June 2023 to a championship victory in May 2024, it'll be one of the most stunning rises we've ever seen in the UFC.

The pick: Erceg, unanimous decision

Bantamweight bout

Jonathan Martinez (19-4)
vs.
Jose Aldo (31-8)

A little less than two years since Aldo departed mixed martial arts with a loss to top contender Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 278, "The King of Rio" is back for more.

However, Aldo's comeback fight may also be his last - he will become a free agent and intends to pursue boxing opportunities. If this is really it for Aldo in the UFC, it's a perfect send-off for the Hall of Famer and former featherweight champion: in front of his beloved fans in the city where he learned to fight.

Now, as far as the actual task at hand - beating Martinez - it'll take a hell of an effort from the 37-year-old to turn back the clock once more.

Aldo can definitely beat Martinez, but Martinez is seven years younger and has far fewer miles on him - a key advantage for the Factory X product. Aldo was still a top-10 bantamweight when he retired from MMA in August 2022 - and he's kept busy with three boxing matches since then - but things move fast in the sport, especially for an aging fighter in one of the lighter weight classes. Just because Aldo performed well two years ago doesn't mean he will now.

I'm expecting a competitive Muay Thai-esque fight between Martinez and Aldo with a lot of leg kicks and a variety of other strikes from both bantamweights. Martinez has one of the best left leg kicks in the division, and he keeps improving every time out. As cool of a moment as it would be to see Aldo get his hand raised on home soil in his UFC return, I have a feeling Martinez will stay a tad busier on the feet over three rounds and play spoiler.

The pick: Martinez, split decision

Light heavyweight bout

Anthony Smith (37-19)
vs.
Vitor Petrino (11-0)

As former UFC title challenger Smith weighs the pros and cons of retirement, this will be Petrino's coming-out party.

A 26-year-old from Brazil well on his way to cracking the top 15 at light heavyweight, Petrino has shown in four UFC fights - a knockout, submission, and pair of decision wins - that he has a bit of everything in his arsenal. Now he gets the step up in competition that he's earned, and he's catching Smith at the perfect time.

Smith, who's still in his mid-30s but has been fighting professionally for more than 16 years, has lost three of his last four fights and hasn't put together a winning streak in almost three years. Long gone are the days of "Lionheart" knocking out Rashad Evans and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and submitting Alexander Gustafsson and Volkan Oezdemir.

One thing you can say about Smith is he's still tough, but Petrino will put him through the wood chipper in this fight. I wouldn't be surprised to see Petrino bust Smith up on the feet and then finish him off with ground-and-pound, with the referee mercifully ending the fight to prevent further damage.

The pick: Petrino, third-round TKO

Other main-card predictions: Michel Pereira def. Ihor Potieria by knockout; Caio Borralho def. Paul Craig by TKO