Playing the over/under game with PECOTA projections

It's that time of the year everybody loves - or hates - depending on one's perspective: preseason predictions.

Baseball Prospectus was the latest publication to release its projections Tuesday when it revealed its 2016 standings based on the PECOTA system, a forecast model that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons. For some teams, such as projected division winners Cleveland and Tampa, the results reaffirmed their fan base's optimistic outlook.

For others, like Jose Bautista or the Kansas City Royals, the projections will likely be used as bulletin-board fodder over the next eight months.

The polarizing projections also prompted our staff to weigh in on the results, with each editor - Jonah Birenbaum, Bryan Mcwilliam, Dan Toman, Greg Warren, and Brandon Wile - offering their over/under predictions for every team's win total.

AL EAST

Credit the Rays' front office for complementing a strong rotation with the addition of Corey Dickerson and Brad Miller, but the duo is hardly enough to help improve the AL's second-lowest scoring offense in 2015. Pitching will continue to be Tampa Bay's biggest weapon, and while the Rays could surprise some, reaching the 90-win plateau appears to be a long shot. - Brandon Wile

AL Central

The Indians project to have one of the best starting rotations in baseball with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar leading the way, but will they score enough to earn 92 wins after making small additions in Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis? That doesn't look promising. Detroit on the other hand looks more primed to exceed 79 wins with a formidable lineup featuring Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera, and J.D. Martinez alongside an improved rotation and bullpen. - Bryan Mcwilliam

AL WEST

PECOTA rewarded the Rangers' division-winning season with a rather pessimistic projection for 2016: fewer wins than 15 major-league teams. The Rangers have been quiet this winter, but that doesn't mean they're destined for an 80-win season. They boast young talent (Rougned Odor and Delino DeShields) that should continue to develop; Yu Darvish is set to return from Tommy John in May; and Cole Hamels will be in uniform for a full season. Given their talented mix of youth and experience, the Rangers are a team more likely to finish with 90 wins instead of 80. - Dan Toman

NL EAST

Very few critics will argue the general composition of the NL East. The Mets and Nationals are playoff-caliber teams, the Braves and Phillies are most definitely not, and no one really knows what to make of the Marlins. Miami's dysfunction alone last season probably cost the team a few wins, so when you consider the club's high-quality talent and the fact Dee Gordon was the only starter from Opening Day to appear in more than 130 games, it's not so unrealistic to expect a 5-to-10 win swing under new manager Don Mattingly. - DT

NL Central

The losses of Jason Heyward and John Lackey to free agency, and Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery are big ones for the Cardinals, but projecting them to win 18 less games next season seems like a reach. This is a team that should have a healthy Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, and Matt Adams back, and who brought in Mike Leake to fill Lackey's spot in the rotation. Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty may not be Heyward, but they're both upgrades offensively over Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos, who played a combined 196 games in the club's outfield last season. - BM

NL WEST

The Diamondbacks made major waves with their offseason overhaul and now have Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller anchoring the rotation. There are still holes on the roster, but the offense that put up the second-most runs in the NL should be fine as long as Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock stay healthy. After winning 79 games last season, expect this vastly improved club to be in the postseason conversation by winning north of 85 games. - BW