Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds
theScore's baseball editors break down the past year for each team, and look ahead to the offseason.
Free agents: Jack Hannahan, Ryan Ludwick, Ramon Santiago
Arbitration-eligible players: Aroldis Chapman, Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Devin Mesoraco, Logan Ondrusek, Alfredo Simon
2014 payroll: $114 million
What went right in 2014?
Johnny Cueto and Todd Frazier both stepped up and delivered career years for a decimated Cincinnati Reds roster.
Cueto pitched his way into the Cy Young conversation with a 2.25 ERA across a personal-best 243 2/3 innings. The right-hander's superhuman start to the season - 10 earned runs in his first nine outings - nearly kept the Reds in contention through the All-Star break.
The 28-year-old mixed in his cutter more last year and the results paid off; Cueto's 0.96 WHIP and 25.2 percent strikeout rate were both career highs.
Third-baseman Frazier, meanwhile, helped shoulder the offensive load for the Reds, becoming one of five players last season - and the only one at his position - to record at least 20 home runs and 20 steals.
Defense was a strong point for the Reds in 2014, especially up the middle. Center fielder Billy Hamilton and shortstop Zack Cozart made up for their struggles at the plate with elite defense, while Devin Mesoraco's work behind the plate and dangerous bat (147 wRC+) ranked him fifth among major league catchers with 4.4 WAR.
What went wrong in 2014?
Half of the Reds' lineup, two-thirds of the rotation, and their closer all missed significant time to injury last year.
| Player | Time Missed | 2013 WAR | 2014 WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Votto | 99 games | 6.1 | 1.1 |
| Brandon Phillips | 36 games | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 22 games | 0.4 | 4.4 |
| Jay Bruce | 14 games | 4.0 | -1.1 |
| Mat Latos | 3.5 months | 4.4 | 1.5 |
| Homer Bailey | 2 months | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| Aroldis Chapman | 1.5 months | 1.6 | 2.7 |
All-Star first baseman Joey Votto missed 99 games with a serious quad strain, while offseason knee surgery and elbow inflammation cost right-hander Mat Latos half his starts.
Another contributing factor in Cincinnati's 14-win drop from the year before was the loss of outfielder Shin-Soo Choo.
| Player | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Choo (2012-13) | .284 | .399 | .452 | 141 |
| Reds LF (2014) | .227 | .285 | .279 | 73 |
Injuries slowed Choo during his first season in Texas, so it's difficult to predict his production lost in 2014, but it's safe to say that first-year skipper Bryan Price didn't have the same lineup former manager Dusty Baker had for 187 wins the previous two seasons.
Offseason Needs
Reds general manager Walt Jocketty has plenty of retooling to do if he's to improve his club back to its 97-win level of two seasons ago.
Complicating matters is the club's escalating payroll. Several key players are arbitration-eligible and due for significant raises. MLB Trade Rumors projects over $50 million in arbitration fees on top of approximately $80 million tied up in existing contracts.
Those costs put the Reds over-budget and as a result will likely lead them to pursue trades. Latos and fellow right-hander Mike Leake are both free agents after the 2016 season and could fetch quality returns on the offensive side.
Should the Reds elect to improve via free agency, some potential targets include:
Left field
As noted in the chart above, Reds left fielders were essentially a black hole of production in 2014. The club is reportedly looking to save here with prospects Phil Ervin, Jesse Winker and Yorman Rodriguez looming in the minors, so look for Jocketty to target lower tier options on a short-term deal.
Nori Aoki - The 32-year-old is a great fit for the Reds, given his consistent on-base levels, low strikeout rate and presumably cheap cost. While he's not the offensive threat Choo was, Aoki's presence near the top of the order would help restore more balance to the Reds' lineup.
Additional candidates: Alex Rios, Torii Hunter
Shortstop
Cozart's defensive value rated him an above-replacement level player, but there's nothing even close to average about his bat. The 29-year-old shortstop created 44 percent fewer runs than league average (56 wRC+) and his .254 weighted on-base percentage ranked last in the majors at his position.
Top Target
Jed Lowrie - Cozart's glove still remains valuable in late innings, and Lowrie's above-average offense at the position isn't expected to cost more than $10 million per season. If that's too expensive for the Reds' liking, look for them to explore trading pitching for someone like Alexei Ramirez.
Additional candidates: Asdrubal Cabrera
Impact Prospect
The Reds' efforts this offseason could largely depend on a trio of young outfield prospects. ESPN's Keith Law projects both Ervin and Winker to develop into solid everyday outfielders, and says Rodriguez has the highest ceiling of any position player in the organization.
Neither one has appeared at Triple-A yet, so they're unlikely to make an impact at the major-league level next year. But given the Reds' outfield was a weakness for the club in 2014, the team may not have the luxury of waiting on the trio too much longer.