3 matchups that could determine the outcome of the World Series

The Giants vs. the Royal Triumvirate

It's difficult to recall a group of relief pitchers that gets as much attention as Kansas City's bullpen, but it's even harder to identify a team whose success is so inextricably linked with the effectiveness of that bullpen.

The triumvirate of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland, specifically, has navigated the late innings of the postseason with uncommon ease, illustrating one of the central reasons the Royals were able to defy their Pythagorean record by five wins during the regular season. Heading into Tuesday's series opener at Kauffman Stadium, the trio has allowed three earned runs through 25 2/3 innings (1.05 ERA) this postseason, averaging more than one strikeout per inning while holding opponents to a meager .184 batting average.

Though none of them have shown much vulnerability of late, all three have certain tendencies the Giants should attempt to exploit. It would, for instance, behoove San Francisco's hitters to take an aggressive approach against Herrera, whose fastball reached 100 miles per hour this season more frequently than every pitcher except Aroldis Chapman. The 24-year-old tends to start plate appearances with his four-seam fastball, and opponents enjoyed considerable success during the regular season when putting his first pitch in play.

(Courtesy: Baseball-Reference)

This approach, however, doesn't seem advisable against Davis, as none of the 16 players who put the right-hander's first pitch in play during the regular season managed to reach base. The Giants, a fairly aggressive team at the plate, would be better served to take a pitch from Davis, who allowed zero home runs in 70 innings this season, and try to work a favorable count. Davis uses his four-seamer more than 71 percent of the time when he's behind in the count and curtails the use of his curveball considerably.

Holland, obviously, is someone the Giants will hope to avoid, as his presence on the mound portends impending doom for opposing teams. Wielding a repertoire comprised of a four-seamer, slider and splitter - three pitches with different kinds of action but only small variances in velocity - Holland effectively neutralizes hitters from all sides of the plate, as he held opponents to a .472 on-base plus slugging during the regular season.

The Giants' left-handed hitters should try to refrain from chasing Holland's slider, a pitch he uses 60 percent of the time with a two-strike count, as lefties hit just .083 with a .167 slugging percentage against the pitch this season. The 28-year-old prefers to bury his slider rather than throw it for a strike, so left-handed hitters should try to lay off and seek out a four-seamer, which induced empty swings only about 8 percent of the time this season.

Terrance Gore vs. Buster Posey

No player epitomizes Kansas City's emphasis on team speed better than Terrance Gore, the delightfully one-dimensional speedster whose sole purpose in this series is to pinch run. Buster Posey, meanwhile, is surely aware he should be prepared to throw whenever he sees Gore amble out of Kansas City's dugout, as the 23-year-old will likely try to pilfer an extra 90 feet.

Gore, a 20th-round selection in the 2011 draft, is unlikely to ever establish himself as an everyday player - the diminutive outfielder owns a .614 OPS over 330 games as a professional - but his plus-plus speed makes him a true asset on a postseason roster. 

Before joining the Royals in late August, Gore swiped 47 bases in 54 attempts this season between High-A Wilmington and Triple-A Omaha, and boasts a 90 percent success rate throughout his minor-league career. Gore also stole five bases in as many tries upon joining the big-league squad during the latter stages of the regular season, and swiped three bases through the first three rounds of the playoffs, including the one featured below in the American League wild-card game.

(Courtesy: MLB.com)

What makes Gore a particularly pesky thief, however, is that he can steal bases even when he doesn't get an especially good jump. Notice in the photo below Gore has yet to take his first step even after Luke Gregerson has begun his delivery. Gregerson, however, delivers the ball to the plate fairly slowly (1.4-1.5 seconds), rendering a decent toss from catcher Derek Norris useless as Gore easily beats the throw.

Posey, incidentally, has not been as effective in recent years at controlling the running game. Though he distinguished himself early in his career by throwing out potential base-stealers at an impressive rate - Posey was eight percent above league average in both 2010 and 2011 - the two-time All-Star has regressed to the mean since returning from the devastating knee injury that sidelined him for more than two-thirds of the 2011 campaign.

Posey has thrown out 30 percent of potential base-stealers since the beginning of 2012, falling within three percent of league average in each of the last three seasons. The 27-year-old has thrown out just one prospective base-stealer in four attempts this postseason, and will assuredly have his hands full with Gore, whom Royals manager Ned Yost described on Saturday as a "necessity" for his team's roster.

Madison Bumgarner vs. AT&T Park

Though Giants manager Bruce Bochy may have to use his discretion to determine when Madison Bumgarner will make his second start of the series - he already tabbed the left-hander for Game 1 at Kauffman Stadium - the 25-year-old ace is due for one outing at AT&T Park regardless.

Most teams would rejoice at the prospect of having their best pitcher on the mound in front of an adoring crowd in a spacious ballpark, but Bumgarner was oddly ineffective at home this season. He fashioned a 4.03 ERA over 15 starts at home during the regular season, and his two most dominant outings of the postseason thus far have come away from San Francisco.

His peripheral splits, however, don't provide too much insight into his struggles, as Bumgarner posted a higher strikeout rate at home during the regular season and was much better at suppressing home runs at AT&T Park than he was on the road. There are, however, two figures that stand out. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and left-on-base percentage were noticeably worse in San Francisco.

It's tempting to dismiss Bumgarner's abnormally high BABIP as rotten luck - league average almost always hovers around .300 - but doing so would absolve the left-hander for yielding a whole lot of hard contact at home this season. Bumgarner posted the tenth-highest line-drive rate at home this season among qualified pitchers at 24.1 percent, roughly seven points higher than the mark he fashioned on the road. His inability to quash rallies, evidenced by his 69 percent left-on-base rate, is a symptom of this tendency to surrender hard contact.

A pitcher as talented as Bumgarner could easily defy this season-long trend in a one-start sample, but there is some evidence to suggest the Royals won't be facing the 6-foot-5 southpaw at his most dominant when he takes the mound at AT&T Park for one last time.