What does the future hold for Joey Votto?

The Cincinnati Reds placed Joey Votto on the disabled list Tuesday, the second trip to the DL this season for the Reds first baseman. This stint figures to be longer than the requisite 15 days, given the nagging and chronic nature of his thigh injury.

The Reds are a contending team, and missing their best (and highest paid) player is a huge blow. Though some might still denigrate Votto’s contributions, there is little debate that winning the NL Central without him is a much tougher task than with the left-handed hitting Canadian in the mix.

But, then again, maybe it isn’t? The Joey Votto that limped through the first three months of the 2014 season is a far cry from the Joey Votto who claimed NL MVP honors in 2010.

The Reds made this bed and now, with Votto potentially out long term, they have to lay in it. For this year and beyond, are the Reds perhaps better off without Joey Votto?

With him, the Reds are a good team. They have three playoff appearances during his tenure as the resident star. They rewarded him with a record-setting contract extension, more than $225 million stretched over ten years. A deal that doesn't expire until 2023.

What kind of production is Votto going to deliver the Reds over that time? Well, there are two ways to look at it.

Joey Votto will bounce back and be himself when healthy

Regular, uninjured Votto remains one of the very best hitters in baseball. Between his MVP season in 2010 and 2013, he ranks first among qualified hitters in walks and by OBP, second by average, second by weighted-on base average and weighted runs created plus.

Votto is a rate stats monster. He is very good at avoiding outs, an invaluable baseball skill. He makes his team better by being in the lineup. He is a diligent student of the game and works tirelessly to improve himself as a hitter and player.

He’s not quite a home run hitter in the Giancarlo Stanton mold, but his gatling gun of line drives produces extra base hits by the boat load, using the whole field as a part of his “don’t make an out” ethos.

His current leg injury not only put him on the shelf this year but also sapped his power even when he was on the field. He was unable to drive off his back leg and produced the worst power numbers of his career. His ISO (isolated power, slugging percentage with batting average subtracted out, essentially a measure of extra base power) is .155 in 2014 compared to a .222 career mark.

There is very much something awry with the 2014 edition of Votto. After a platelet-rich plasma injection, he should be back in time for the Reds’ stretch drive.

Some rest in the offseason and he’s back, right as rain. His power comes back and he makes adjustments, and the Reds are off to the races. He could follow the career path of Lance Berkman, staving off the Old Man Time until his late 30s (hopefully without the complete collapse into retirement).

The only problem with this belief is it requires us to assume Votto hasn’t been himself since late 2012, when this tendon/muscle condition first surfaced. Assuming he gets 100 percent healthy is no minor leap of faith. There is always the chance that...

Joey Votto will never be the same again

There is a very real chance Votto never gets near his MVP-level production again. This threat loomed with or without injuries, limiting his ability to generate bat head speed and drive the ball with conviction.

Age is a hell of a thing and it waits for no man. Votto’s numbers this season are pedestrian indeed, far below what we expect from a hitter as prolific as the pride of Etobicoke.

Here’s a quick look at recent players to post similar power numbers over similar ages. Compare the power production of Votto to Adrian Gonzalez, another left-handed first baseman with elite offensive skills.

Gonzalez bounced back but he’ll never again reach the heights of his peak, as raw power dissipates with age.

Consider Votto in the context of another hitter known for his great bat control and eye at the plate: Todd Helton. He persisted in the Rockies order and remained a productive hitter right up until his retirement at the end of last season.

The spectre of Coors Field looms over any comparison here, but even with Helton’s Mile High assistance we see a precipitous dropoff in his power production after the age of thirty. He battled back pain as he entered his mid-thirties and was never really the same.

If this paints a worrisome picture for Votto’s future, well, it should. There is a very real chance Votto’s recent injury history will only exacerbate the problems older players naturally experience.

Power saps with time, and even incredibly patient hitters like Heltion (and Votto) can only produce so much as their bats lose pop. As far as driving the ball for extra bases, Votto isn’t falling from the same high cliff as a Jason Giambi or even Gary Sheffield.

Any concerns about Votto’s inability to drive in runs or pick up RBIs are only going to get worse as his extra base hits dry up, lest the team deploy him in a different spot in the lineup.

As frustrated as Reds fans might be with Votto’s perceived selfish devotion to the free pass, paying more than $20 million a season for a singles hitter is not exactly an easy pill to swallow.

Thanks to the rich TV deals and revenue sharing in baseball, nobody really doubts the Reds ability to float Votto’s deal while remaining competitive, but they are paying top dollar - in a backloaded deal - for a player whose best days are assuredly behind him.

Luckily for Reds fans, adjusting is one thing Votto does very well. Few players are as astute in their study of the game and few players are better equipped to deal with a changing body and the realities of playing the game at 31 as compared to 26.

The Reds need to decide if they can live with the rate of Votto’s decline or if they believe the older version can reappear. For all the fan angst, the front office must win games by balancing payroll crunch and diminishing returns.