Positional scarcity and its impact on player value in fantasy baseball
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Positional scarcity is the reason why catchers and middle infielders are so highly treasured in fantasy baseball. With few elite options and just a handful of reliable mid-tier players available at these positions, fantasy owners who neglect these positions are ensuring themselves a season full of headaches.
By contrast, outfielders and first basemen are usually much easier to come by. Think of these positions as the quarterbacks of fantasy baseball. As the 2016 fantasy football season showed us, strong QB production can be found in the final rounds and reaching early on one can make for a horrible error.
Impact on player value
An easy way to highlight the impact positional scarcity has on a player is to analyze his ranking at different positions. Buster Posey, for instance, is often the top fantasy catcher available. But as a first baseman, his value drops dramatically. Posey's 2016 numbers are listed below, along with where his output ranked at both positions.
| Catcher Rank | 1B Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| AVG. | 5th | 7th |
| HR | T-10 | T-27 |
| RBI | 2nd | 16th |
| Runs | 1st | 10th |
As a 1B, Posey's doesn't provide the statistical value of a top-tier 1B. While his average, OBP, and OPS numbers remain strong at any position, his 15-20 homers and 75-90 RBI and runs scored represent a massive decline outside of the catcher position. At C, he represents the best of the best, and the position goes downhill drastically after him and his few elite peers.
His catcher eligibility, and his elite production compared to his peers at the position, helps offset his numbers at a different position. If he were to lose his catcher eligibility like Minnesota's Joe Mauer did a few seasons back, his fantasy appeal would be much lower.
How it impacts your draft strategy
Simply put, you should be passing on outfielders and instead securing infield and pitching options early and often. The drop off between a mid-range catcher like Salvador Perez and an unproven option like Derek Norris is extremely severe relative to the plethora of mid-tier outfielders available. Keep this in mind on draft day.
Throughout the season, fantasy players also have a much easier time finding waiver wire options in the outfield. Last season, OF options who provided extended fantasy value included Mike Napoli, Yasmany Tomas, and Melky Cabrera. Death, taxes, and a sizzling outfielder sitting on the waiver wire are constants year-in and year-out.
A quick look at any fantasy ranking site or ADP also demonstrates the focus on infield positions or pitchers rather than outfielders. This year, only five of FantasyPros' top-20 players are strictly eligible for outfield positions.
How it impacts a player's trade value
Last year, only six second basemen hit at least .270, scored 70 or more runs, and nabbed double-digit stolen bases. Of these six, only three supplemented those numbers with 80 or more RBIs (Jose Altuve, Rougned Odor, and Jason Kipnis). Clearly, well-rounded 2B production is hard to come by.
Only one of those six, however, ranks in FantasyPros' top-40 players this season (Altuve), and just three rank in the top 70 (Altuve, Odor and Ian Kinsler). As a result, cornering the market on these elite producers could put you at an advantage as the season wears on.
With your league-mates struggling to fill their middle infield spots, owning two or three of these players would give you depth at the position and allow you to deal from an advantageous position. Savvy managers in this situation would not only gain from fantastic production but also exploit the positional scarcity of second basemen.
Keeper league advice
In keeper leagues, the impact of positional scarcity is ratcheted up even further. Securing an elite prospect like 2B Trea Turner fills a hole in your roster for years to come. This season,C Gary Sanchez will be one to watch. As a 24-year-old catcher who hit 20 bombs in 53 games last year, jumping on him early could secure you the league's top offensive catcher for years to come.
Ultimately, the impact of positional scarcity in keeper leagues should force you to consider keeping unproven and enigmatic prospects rather than reliable veterans. Keeper leagues are a constant battle to stay ahead of the curve and owning young studs behind the plate or at the keystone will make you the envy of many of your league-mates.