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Playoff tiebreak scenarios for MLB's final weekend

Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY

The division winners have been settled, but there are still plenty of opportunities for chaos regarding the wild-card picture heading into the regular season's final weekend.

Four American League teams are separated by two games in the wild-card race, while the National League features three teams within two. The AL's Nos. 2 and 3 seeds are also still at stake.

Here are the potential tiebreaking scenarios should they be necessary after the final games are played Sunday.

Two-team tie for both wild-card spots

If only two teams qualify for the wild card, but have equal records, home-field advantage would be based on the teams' head-to-head record. Should that record be the same, the second tiebreaker is the teams' intradivision record, followed by intraleague record.

American League breakdown

  • Toronto won the season series over Baltimore 10-8, and therefore would host the Orioles in the wild-card game.
  • Toronto won the season series over Detroit 4-3, and therefore would host the Tigers in the wild-card game.
  • The Blue Jays and Mariners tied their season series. As of Friday the Blue Jays have the same intradivision and intraleague record as the Mariners, but that could change as both teams finish against divisional opponents.

National League breakdown

  • St. Louis won its season series against the Giants and owns both tiebreakers - intradivisional and intraleague records - over the Mets. The Cardinals would host the wild-card game against either team.
  • The Mets won their season series over San Francisco 4-3, and therefore would host the Giants in the wild-card game.
  • There's no scenario where the Giants would play at home if two teams tie for the NL wild card.

Two teams tie for 2nd wild-card spot

If two teams tie for the second wild-card spot, a Game 163 tiebreaker will be played, with the winner traveling to the first wild-card game the next day.

American League breakdown

  • The Blue Jays hold tiebreakers over the Orioles, Tigers, and Mariners (pending the weekend results) in this scenario. If the Blue Jays are tied with any of these teams, a Game 163 would be held at Rogers Centre.
  • Baltimore would host an Orioles-Tigers Game 163 thanks to a 5-2 season series win over Detroit.
  • Seattle went 6-1 against Baltimore and would host a Game 163 at Safeco Field, creating a potential travel nightmare - New York to Seattle to Toronto or Detroit to Cleveland, Boston, or Arlington in 96 hours - for Baltimore.
  • Detroit holds the tiebreaker over Seattle and would host a Mariners-Tigers Game 163, which would likely be played after the Tigers-Indians makeup game Monday at Comerica Park.

National League breakdown

  • Scenarios from a two-team tie for one NL wild-card spot don't change here. The Giants would be on the road for Game 163 and a wild-card game; the Cardinals would host the Mets in Game 163.

Three-team tie for two wild-card spots

Ready for more math and confusion? We certainly hope so. If three teams tie for two wild-card spots, the teams will be seeded based on head-to-head records. Team A would host Team B in Game 163 with the winner getting one wild-card spot and the loser traveling to Team C; the winner of that game becomes the second wild card.

Designations are primarily determined by head-to-head records and the other tiebreakers; you can find the full explanation from MLB's official tiebreaker rules guide here. All the tiebreakers outlined above apply here.

American League breakdown

  • The Blue Jays, thanks to tiebreakers, would likely have first pick. If they choose to be team A they'd get two chances at earning the first wild-card berth on the road at either Baltimore, Detroit, or - unlikely - Seattle; if they win one game on the road they'll become the first wild-card team and host the AL wild-card game. If they choose to be team C they'd play the loser of A/B at Rogers Centre, with the winner earning the second wild-card berth.

National League breakdown

  • The Cardinals and Mets both hold tiebreakers over the Giants, and therefore would get to choose their designations. The Cardinals hold the tiebreaker over the Mets and get first pick.
  • If the Cardinals choose team A, they would host the Mets in Game 163. The winner becomes wild-card No. 1; the loser flies to San Francisco for Game 164. The winner of Game 164 then plays the winner of Game 163 in the wild-card game. See above scenarios for who hosts.
  • The Mets could opt to be team C, meaning they would play one home game - Game 164, against the loser of Giants-Cardinals in Game 163 - instead of two road games. In this scenario, the Mets would be the road team in the actual wild-card game should they get there.

Four-team tie for 2 wild-card spots

This is applicable in the AL only, and it's a long shot. According to Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated, a four-team tie at 88 wins requires Baltimore and Toronto to both go 1-2, Detroit to go 3-1, and Seattle - who beat Oakland Thursday night - to go 3-0 over the weekend. For an 87-win tie, the Orioles and Blue Jays would have to be swept, Detroit would go 2-2, and the Mariners, thanks to Thursday's win, 2-1.

Using each tiebreaker scenario outlined above, the four teams would be given A-B-C-D designations to play a pair of semifinal games. The team with the highest winning percentage against the other three clubs chooses first, followed by the second-, third-, and fourth-highest. In the event those winning percentages are tied, your head will likely explode from confusion. A detailed explanation can be found here.

Once seeding is determined, it's easy: The winners of the two semifinal games play the actual AL wild-card game (location based on tiebreakers), and the losers go home.

Home-field advantage in ALDS

If the Indians still have a chance to grab home-field advantage in the ALDS after Sunday, they'll make up Thursday's rainout against the Tigers in Detroit, whether the Tigers have been eliminated or not.

  • Cleveland lost the season series to the Red Sox, and therefore would be the No. 3 seed if the two teams finish with the same record.

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