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Will Messi's 4-match ban derail Argentina's World Cup qualification?

REUTERS/Marcos Brindicci

Argentina captain Lionel Messi received a four-match suspension from FIFA on Tuesday, just hours before a World Cup qualifying match against Bolivia. Manager Edgardo Bauza's work got a whole lot tougher with Messi set to miss official FIFA dates through Oct. 5.

Life has already been difficult for the defeated 2014 World Cup finalist. The Albiceleste sit third in CONMEBOL qualification standings with a slim lead on Colombia, Ecuador, and Chile. High-flying Brazil has all but locked up the No. 1 spot, and without Messi for much of the remainder of 2017, Bauza needs to come up with some new answers to ensure qualification.

But will Messi's absence prove a fatal blow to Argentina's efforts?

Certainly, historical precedent shows this Argentina side is miles better with the Barcelona star in its ranks than without. When Messi was absent through injury or in his protest retirement, Argentina picked up just one victory out of seven 2018 World Cup qualifying tilts, earning four draws and losing twice. Worse yet, those results came against minnows like Peru, Venezuela, and Paraguay - twice.

When Messi returned to the fray, things changed dramatically. A pair of wins against Chile as well as victory over Uruguay and Colombia followed:

Messi may lead Angel Di Maria, Gabriel Mercado, and Lucas Pratto in the scoring charts with four goals to their two each, but his creative influence in the No. 10 hole is felt more deeply. Argentina managed to score just six times without him in the lineup as compared to nine times with him, in one fewer match.

Luckily, Argentina produces high-quality attacking talent in abundance, and those are the players who need to step up in Messi's absence. The first task is finding a replacement for the night of his suspension. Argentina takes on Bolivia at the Estadio Hernando Siles, and while Bolivia sits second from bottom in the standings, altitude will be a factor.

Related - Gasping for oxygen: Will Argentina suffocate in Bolivia once again?

Bauza had announced his intention of starting Messi up top with Pratto, but now has Atletico Madrid attacker Angel Correa stepping into the spot.

Other options include Ezequiel Lavezzi, Sergio Aguero, and Lucas Alario. He also has Paulo Dybala in the team, though the Juventus man is recovering from injury. Moving forward, Bauza's preferred 4-2-3-1 shape shouldn't change too much, which should see the dropped Aguero return to the starting XI.

In the long term, Bauza will turn to Dybala and Aguero, as well as Gonzalo Higuain, who'll miss Tuesday's match due to suspension from yellow card accumulation. Higuain's hot form for Juventus makes him another dangerous weapon for Argentina, and coupled with Di Maria, Dybala, and Aguero, the Albiceleste boasts a formidable front four.

Then there's Carlos Tevez. Bauza has shown he has no problem affording international duty to players competing in China, having called in Lavezzi for this recent round of matches. Perhaps he can step in as a stopgap measure.

In any case, Argentina is primed to survive this four-match suspension with its most abundant resource helping mitigate disaster. Messi will return in time for the Oct. 5 match away at Ecuador, but Argentina needs to come up with results away at Uruguay on Aug. 31, then at home against Venezuela on Sept. 4 and Oct. 5 against Peru.

It's easy to be persuaded that Argentina can only win with Messi and struggles without him, but Bauza's current team is very different from the one that endured misery from 2015 through 2016, both offensively and defensively. With Higuain up top, Argentina has to change the way it plays, but without Messi in the team, Argentina usually produces twice as many crosses.

That alone should serve Higuain well enough, and if everything else goes as planned, Argentina should be just fine.

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