How the final group stage games could be key in the road to the World Cup semis

It’s crunch time. Though there are a few dead rubbers in the week ahead, the final round of group stage matches isn’t only crucial in deciding which countries will go through to the round of 16, but also for teams to secure an easier path to a World Cup semifinal, where anything can happen.

For some teams, finishing first or second in their group will mean the difference between a sure-fire early exit and a shot at glory in this tournament (or at least a chance and half a chance).

While it’s still early, we can already start to get a picture of how the two halves of this World Cup—groups A to D and groups E to H—will probably shape up. Knowing that, we can roughly see the most likely path for each team through the quarterfinals.

Groups A-D

The most important final game in these groups could be Netherlands vs Chile. Netherlands needs only to draw to secure first place as they have a superior goal difference, while Chile needs a win to top the group. Why is the difference between first and second so important?

Over in Group A, it’s a good bet that Brazil will get a result against Cameroon (already eliminated) and finish first. Mexico vs Croatia is probably too close to call, but either team, currently tied on three points, will finish second.  

Meanwhile in Group C, Colombia will probably finish first with Ivory Coast in second. Costa Rica will also likely top Group D with either Italy or Uruguay second.

So, whomever wins Group B (Chile or Netherlands) will face either Mexico or Croatia in the round of 16, then either Costa Rica or Ivory Coast in the quarters. That’s not easy, but it’s far better than what lies ahead for 2nd place. That team will face Brazil in the round of 16, then either Colombia, Italy or Uruguay if they somehow pull off a miracle against the hosts.

That's why Netherlands vs Chile is a big deal.

Groups E-H

The important one here is Group F’s Nigeria vs Argentina. If Argentina beats or draws Nigeria they'll top the group. Meanwhile Nigeria are through to the next round with a draw but would finish second, and if they lose they could go out if Iran beats Bosnia.

Nigeria however will want to do their best to go out and beat Argentina to top the group, and here’s why.

If France tops Group E (they almost certainly will), it’s likely that either Switzerland or Ecuador will finish second.

That means that 1st place in Group F (either Argentina or Nigeria) will face Switzerland/Ecuador in the round of 16 and then after that either Belgium or the United States (probably).

The team finishing 2nd place however will face the red hot France in the round of 16. 

Moreover, Germany now look a strong bet to finish top of Group G. That means if either Argentina or Nigeria manage to beat France in the first knockout stage, they could face Germany in the quarterfinals. Even Lionel Messi and co may want to avoid that, and they can if they ensure they draw or defeat Nigeria in their final group game.

Conclusion

It’s the World Cup of course. There will be shock results and the groups haven’t finalized yet. Still, there are easier roads to the finals than others. The next round will be crucial not only to see who goes through and who goes home, but in forging a surer path to the semis and then, who knows?