Olympic semifinals preview: Storylines, players to watch, predictions
Following Wednesday's outstanding quarterfinals, which featured three overtime thrillers, only four teams remain in the Olympic men's hockey tournament. Next up: semifinal Friday, with gold-medal co-favorite Canada facing Finland and co-favorite United States taking on Slovakia. Let's break down the matchups.
Canada vs. Finland
The quarters gave Canada its first true test after a dominant round-robin run (3-0-0 record, plus-17 goal differential). The Jon Cooper-coached squad looked like a one-line team for long stretches and trailed Czechia for 21 minutes of game time, but eventually pulled out a nail-biting 4-3 OT win.
The question emerging from the imperfect do-or-die contest: Were Canada's stumbles against the Czechs a hint of what's ahead or a harmless bit of adversity every juggernaut needs to overcome? The smart money's on the latter, given the layers of talent and Stanley Cup pedigree on the 25-man roster. Plus, if Canada's depth falters, no other nation can compete with a nuclear option of Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Macklin Celebrini, and Cale Makar - an elite group lethal at even strength or on the man advantage.
McDavid alone is an elimination-game trump card nobody else can play.
Captain Sidney Crosby and stud defenseman Josh Morrissey are dealing with injuries, though Cooper told reporters Thursday that neither has been definitively ruled out for Friday's contest. Crosby is Canada's undisputed leader and remains a stabilizing presence on a two-way second line, while Morrissey's slick mobility and puck-moving abilities are vital on the second pair.
The Finns, who snuck by Switzerland in the quarters, can learn a lot from the Canada-Czechia showdown. Czechia limited Canada's attack by sitting back in the neutral zone and forcing dump-ins, then packed the high-danger scoring area with bodies. The conservative approach led to blocked shots and counterattacks.
That's how less skilled teams win at best-on-best tournaments, and the Finns are armed with a whole crew of skaters capable of disrupting Canada's flow.
Otherwise, workhorse defensemen Miro Heiskanen (26:21 a night) and Esa Lindell (24:12) must minimize McDavid. Up front, premier forwards Mikko Rantanen, Sebastian Aho, Roope Hintz, and Artturi Lehkonen will need to capitalize on grade A chances, which may be difficult as Canada tightens up defensively.
Canadian player to watch: Forward Seth Jarvis has recorded one assist in 31 total minutes across three games. But anybody who's been paying close attention to Jarvis' shifts will know the winger's been zooming around with purpose. He looks primed for an elevated role and a breakthrough moment.
Finnish player to watch: Forward Joel Armia is quietly having an awesome tournament. The battle-winning fourth-line winger has four points, leads the team with 15 shots, and bagged a short-handed goal against rival Sweden.
Top subplot: Canada's Jordan Binnington has played about as well as anybody could reasonably expect a goalie with terrible NHL numbers to play. One nitpick from his three starts: Rebound control. Can Binnington clean up his act against Finland, or do juicy rebounds start bleeding into goals against?
Prediction: 3-2 win for Canada.
United States vs. Slovakia
After gradually gearing up in the round robin, Team USA delivered its most impressive performance of the Olympics in Wednesday's 2-1 overtime win against Sweden.
The Americans showcased their strengths throughout the contest. Goalie Connor Hellebuyck was tremendous, turning aside 28 of 29 shots to enter the semis with a tournament-leading .956 save percentage. The enviable defense corps also stifled the Swedes' offensive efforts, using dynamic skating, exceptional range, and smooth puck skills to kill rush attacks, retrieve dump-ins efficiently, and break through forechecks.
Quinn Hughes, sidelined by an injury during last year's 4 Nations Face-Off, is flourishing in our first time seeing the superstar blue-liner in a best-on-best setting. The 26-year-old nonchalantly sniped the OT winner against Sweden and leads the U.S. in ice time by a whopping four minutes, logging 23:31 per game.
Slovakia, a mid-tier hockey nation, has punched above its weight in Milan in large part due to standout performances from three NHLers aged 22 or younger. Montreal's Juraj Slafkovsky tops the team in points, while St. Louis' Dalibor Dvorsky has frequently showcased his weapon of a shot. On the back end, New Jersey's Simon Nemec has been a scoring chance-generating machine.
"All the guys are heroes; doesn't matter if you play one minute or 20 minutes, everyone chips in," Slovakia coach Vladimir Orszagh told reporters after beating Germany in the quarters. "We are a band of brothers who work for the team, work for each other, and are living our dream. We are still living (it)."
American player to watch: Forward Jack Hughes has been buzzing all tournament despite logging what amounts to third-line minutes. Expect the electric playmaker's usage to start matching his talent level beginning Friday.
Slovak player to watch: Goalie Samuel Hlavaj will need to stand on his head. The 24-year-old AHLer has been stellar, most notably stopping 39 Finnish shots in Slovakia's opener. However, he hasn't faced a team as deep as the U.S.
Top subplot: The U.S. penalty kill is 10-for-10. Can Slovakia's power play, led by the three youngsters and proven to be a serious threat most nights, crack the code? Special teams can swing high-leverage games.
Prediction: 4-1 win for USA.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter/X (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).