Predictions for the 2024 World Junior Championship
The World Junior Championship has just gotten underway in Sweden, so it's time to get out the crystal ball.
Our team of hockey editors - Kyle Cushman, Kayla Douglas, Josh Gold-Smith, Sean O'Leary, and Josh Wegman - assembled to predict which countries will win medals and which players will separate themselves from the pack in each of the three positional groups.
Here's how we see the tournament unfolding:
Gold
| Editor | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Cushman | United States |
| Douglas | United States |
| Gold-Smith | United States |
| O'Leary | United States |
| Wegman | Sweden |
It's nearly unanimous that the U.S. will dash Canada's hopes of claiming a third straight gold medal, but it's also telling that not even the lone dissenting editor believes the Canadians will three-peat.
The Americans are looking to erase the memory of their last two tournaments after Canada thumped them 6-2 in the previous semifinals and Czechia upset them 4-2 in the 2022 quarterfinals. This year's U.S. squad is both loaded with stars and ultra-deep. It boasts multiple MVP candidates up front, a standout on defense, and experience in goal. So it's not too surprising that the 2021 champions enter this tourney as the favorites.
Silver
| Editor | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Cushman | Canada |
| Douglas | Sweden |
| Gold-Smith | Sweden |
| O'Leary | Canada |
| Wegman | United States |
Our editors aren't nearly as aligned on who'll finish as the runner-up. However, it's notable that everyone believes Team USA will either win gold or silver, while four of us are split on whether it'll be Canada or Sweden losing the final. All but one editor believes the hosts will reach the podium, though the big question is which spot they'll occupy on it.
The Swedes have nine returning players and home cooking on their side this time around, so silver wouldn't be a shocking development for the country that placed fourth last year.
Bronze
| Editor | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Cushman | Slovakia |
| Douglas | Canada |
| Gold-Smith | Canada |
| O'Leary | Sweden |
| Wegman | Canada |
It's not often Canada enters a world junior tournament projected to finish third, but here we are. That's how 60% of our editors see it, anyway. The Canadian side isn't devoid of talent, but Connor Bedard isn't walking through that door. Other teams have experienced game-breakers, and Macklin Celebrini may ultimately hold that distinction, but Canada appears destined for a setback and a rare bronze-medal game appearance.
Tournament MVP
| Editor | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Cushman | Cutter Gauthier (USA) |
| Douglas | Gauthier |
| Gold-Smith | Gauthier |
| O'Leary | Rutger McGroarty (USA) |
| Wegman | Axel Sandin Pellikka (SWE) |
One thing's for sure: We all believe the most valuable player at this tournament will have a cool name. Whether it's Cutter, Rutger, or Axel, all three are expected to excel. Gauthier, who the Philadelphia Flyers drafted fifth overall in 2022, is tied for second in NCAA goal-scoring this season with 13 in 17 games as a Boston College sophomore.
McGroarty, who the Winnipeg Jets chose nine picks after Gauthier, is the U.S. captain and is nearly averaging a point and a half per game in his second campaign with Michigan. He dealt with an injury just before the tournament but has been cleared to participate in full.
Top forward
| Editor | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Cushman | Jiri Kulich (CZE) |
| Douglas | Gauthier |
| Gold-Smith | Kulich |
| O'Leary | Gauthier |
| Wegman | Gauthier |
This is an apt illustration of how "best" and "most valuable" differ. Gauthier once again garners a majority of votes here, but only one editor picked him to win both MVP and top forward honors. Regardless, only Kulich appears primed to stand in his way here.
The Buffalo Sabres prospect notched seven goals in seven games at the previous World Junior Championship, helping Czechia claim silver. He's been lights out in the AHL this season, amassing 16 goals and six assists over 23 games with the Rochester Americans in 2023-24. Kulich is playing in his third World Junior Championship.
Top defenseman
| Editor | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Cushman | Lane Hutson (USA) |
| Douglas | Hutson |
| Gold-Smith | Hutson |
| O'Leary | Sandin Pellikka |
| Wegman | Sandin Pellikka |
Our team thinks it'll be one of two players for the tournament's top blue-liner. Hutson, a Montreal Canadiens second-round pick in 2022, should build on his six-point performance over nine games at the previous tournament. The Boston University sophomore (and teammate of Canadian phenom Celebrini) has 20 points over 15 games in the NCAA this season.
Sandin Pellikka, who one of our editors believes will be MVP, is a plausible pick for top rearguard. The 17th overall pick of the Detroit Red Wings this past June has played well among professionals in the Swedish Hockey League. Sandin Pellikka has nine goals and four assists across 25 contests in 2023-24. He's taking part in his second world junior tourney.
Top goaltender
| Editor | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Cushman | Adam Gajan (SVK) |
| Douglas | Gajan |
| Gold-Smith | Gajan |
| O'Leary | Gajan |
| Wegman | Michael Hrabal (CZE) |
The former nation of Czechoslovakia is well-represented here. Gajan is understandably a popular pick after nearly helping Slovakia upset Canada in overtime of their quarterfinal last time around. His .936 save percentage over 10 games led all netminders in that event, and the IIHF directorate named him the goalie of the tournament. The 35th overall pick by the Chicago Blackhawks in June has a .911 save percentage in 20 USHL contests this season.
Hrabal, who the Arizona Coyotes chose three picks after Gajan, covers plenty of ground at 6-foot-6 and 209 pounds. He's been inconsistent as a freshman at UMass Amherst with a .905 save percentage over 12 games, but it wouldn't be fair to judge him harshly for his first dozen NCAA appearances.