1 X-factor for each country at the World Junior Championship
To succeed at the World Junior Championship, teams can't rely solely on star players performing to their capabilities. Secondary talent needs to make an impact too.
Ahead of the 2023 world juniors, here is an X-factor for each team whose performance could push their nation above pre-tournament expectations. Goalies have been excluded, as goaltending can always make or break a team's tournament.
Canada - Dylan Guenther
Guenther has the most NHL experience of any player at the world juniors but is still flying under the radar. With two draft-eligible forwards in Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli, plus the addition of Shane Wright from the Seattle Kraken, Guenther hasn't received the attention a typical NHL loanee would.
The Arizona Coyotes' 2021 ninth overall pick destroyed the WHL last season, tallying 45 goals and 91 points in 59 games. He tormented opposing goaltenders in the playoffs too, scoring 13 goals in 16 contests.
Guenther performing as a high-end scoring threat on the second line would completely overwhelm Canada's opponents. It's one thing to try to shut down one elite line, it's a whole different beast to try to limit two lines that are as dangerous as Canada's are on paper.
His offensive prowess has yet to materialize with Arizona, as Guenther only has three goals in 21 contests. Returning to the junior level, his goal-scoring upside could take Canada from a tournament favorite to an all-time great squad.
United States - Chaz Lucius
Possessing one of the best top lines at the tournament and an elite defense, the major question for the United States is secondary scoring. Lucius enters the world juniors coming off of a shoulder injury but appears to be healthy and ready to lead the charge on the second line.
The Winnipeg Jets first-rounder has played 15 games in the AHL with the Manitoba Moose, tallying five points. As a freshman at the University of Minnesota last year, he scored 19 points in 24 contests.
Lucius finally has a chance to play for the United States after the pandemic forced the cancellation of the 2020 U18s and original 2022 world juniors. He didn't play for the U.S. at the rescheduled tournament in the summer.
As good as its top line is, the United States needs to find scoring throughout the roster if it wants to compete with the other top teams. Lucius will be leaned on with his dynamic upside and AHL experience to provide that production.
Sweden - Axel Sandin Pellikka
We've grown accustomed to seeing Sweden feature one of the top defense groups at the world juniors. That changes this year with Sweden missing three of its top blue-liners.
Simon Edvinsson declined an invite to focus on the AHL campaign, while Mattias Havelid and Elias Salomonsson are unavailable due to injury.
As a result, Sweden will need a defenseman to step up and play a role significantly larger than he would have needed to otherwise. Enter Sandin Pellikka, the 2023 draft-eligible blue-liner who has impressed in the Swedish pro league this season.
Sandin Pellikka's current scoring rate in the SHL - five points through 14 games for 0.36 points per game - has only been exceeded by two other draft-eligible defensemen since the 1980s: Victor Hedman and Rasmus Dahlin.
With two right-handed blue-liners unavailable in Havelid and Salomonsson, Sandin Pellikka jumps from a supplementary piece to a potential top-pairing player. Already well within the 2023 first-round conversation, a superb showing at the world juniors would see his draft stock soar.
Finland - Brad Lambert
Lambert remains an enigma. The Jets prospect's blend of skill and skating makes him a threat at all times, but it has yet to materialize into consistent results.
Coming off a disappointing draft year in Finland, Lambert has continued his struggles in the AHL. He's tallied just three points in 14 contests with Winnipeg's affiliate as the third-youngest player in the league.
Lambert shined early at the postponed 2022 world juniors last December, posting a combined five points against Germany and Austria. He failed to find that same form in the summer tournament, tallying just one goal and finishing as a healthy scratch.
Despite the inconsistency and lack of production, Lambert is still the player that could make or break Finland's hopes for a medal.
If Lambert can be a difference-maker in his final world juniors appearance, Finland becomes an exponentially more dangerous team. No player encapsulates the "X-factor" label more than Lambert at this year's event.
Czechia - Stanislav Svozil
Svozil is on an unbelievably hot streak entering the world juniors. The defenseman has a whopping 20 points over his last 10 WHL games.
He has taken his game to another level in 2022-23 after a solid debut season in North America. Svozil has 37 points in 28 games overall, placing the Regina Pats star third in WHL scoring among blue-liner.
Alongside fellow Columbus Blue Jackets prospect David Jiricek, Svozil will have to play a major role if Czechia is to make a deep run.
Svozil emerging as a second defender that can hold his own in minutes against elite opponents at the tournament would be a game-changer for Czechia's medal hopes.
Whether the Columbus duo play on the same pairing or Czechia looks to spread the wealth, Svozil will be a significant minute-muncher. Winning that time on ice could be the key to Czechia unlocking true upset potential.
Slovakia - Servac Petrovsky
Even without Juraj Slafkovsky, who remains in the NHL with the Montreal Canadiens, Slovakia is still an upset candidate this year.
Featuring second overall pick Simon Nemec, first-rounder Filip Mesar, and touted 2023 draft-eligible forwards Dalibor Dvorsky and Samuel Honzek, the Slovakians have game-breaking talent that can win them a game against the tournament's elite if they can keep it close.
One of the key players, both offensively and defensively, is Petrovsky. The Minnesota Wild sixth-rounder will be tasked with centering Slovakia's top line.
Petrovsky has been impressive in the OHL, tallying 14 goals and 28 points through 27 contests. He's played a secondary role with the Owen Sound Attack this campaign but will need to show he can step up the lineup early on for Slovakia.
If Slovakia is to be more than quarterfinals fodder, Petrovsky will have to find quick chemistry with his talented wingers and play a vital role in limiting the quality of chances against his team.
Switzerland - Louis Robin
Switzerland is set to battle with Slovakia and Latvia for the right to avoid the relegation round. The Swiss narrowly advanced to the quarterfinals in the summer with a 3-2 win over Austria but face stiffer competition this time around.
With no NHL-drafted forwards, the Swiss will need someone to step up on the scoring front. Attilio Biasca returns after bagging four goals at the last world juniors, but he can't carry the load on his own.
Robin was on Switzerland's original roster for the 2022 world juniors last December but didn't play in the summer event. His 14 points in 16 QMJHL games rank second on a per-game basis among the nine Swiss players based in the CHL, behind only the aforementioned Biasca.
If Switzerland is to make the quarterfinals, scoring will need to come from somewhere. Robin succeeding alongside Batman Biasca could be the difference in a matchup against a Latvian team with three NHL prospects up front.
Germany - Haakon Hanelt
Hanelt played in his first major international tournament for Germany at the 2022 world juniors, notching one goal and two points.
The Washington Capitals prospect is one of two NHL-drafted forwards on the German squad, the other being Coyotes second-round pick Julian Lutz. Hanelt's QMJHL experience will be incredibly valuable, with only three players on the roster currently plying their trade in the CHL.
Lacking a truly high-end piece that we've seen in recent years, Germany's aim is to survive in the top division for another year. Its big matchup comes Dec. 30 against Austria; the loser will almost certainly play in the relegation round.
Hanelt excelling as the top-line center in that contest could make or break Germany's hopes of remaining at the elite level in 2024.
Latvia - Niks Fenenko
Latvia shocked Czechia during group play in the summer world juniors and will hope to surprise again. Boasting a trio of NHL-drafted forwards, the Latvians have a bit more firepower up front than the relegation-round candidates.
Unlike the others in this tier, then, Latvia's X-factor will be on the defensive end. Fenenko played at the world juniors in the summer and the D1A tournament last December, when the Latvians finished runners-up but were ultimately promoted due to Belarus' ban.
Fenenko played over 20 minutes in most of Latvia's games in the summer and will take an even bigger role with captain Ralfs Bergmanis aging out.
The QMJHL blue-liner has tallied 18 points in 27 contests this season. Fenenko's ability to get the puck to Latvia's top forwards will play a major role in the team's success or failure.
Austria - David Reinbacher
Austria won the D1A tournament in 2020 to gain promotion to the elite division of the world juniors. Unlike most nations that join the top flight, Austria hasn't had to battle to stay up in the two tournaments it's played since due to COVID-enforced rule changes. That changes this December.
Austria's chances of staying up are significantly hampered by the absence of Detroit Red Wings first-rounder Marco Kasper, which leaves the offensive workload to Canadiens prospect Vinzenz Rohrer.
Despite the importance of goals to remain in the elite division, Austria's X-factor is 2023 draft-eligible defenseman Reinbacher. The 6-foot-2 blue-liner has excelled in the Swiss league this campaign, leading to first-round buzz.
If Reinbacher plays to his potential, the only other rearguard who can match his impact among the relegation candidates is Switzerland's Lian Bichsel, whom the Dallas Stars drafted in the first round in July. Shutting down Germany's top forwards and getting the puck up to Rohrer will be Reinbacher's top task as he looks to land on more scouts' radars at the world juniors.