World Cup Run-Up: Early predictions after the draw

Our monthly World Cup lookahead examines the biggest talking points relating to next summer's tournament. In this edition, all the focus is on the group stage draw. At T-minus six months, the countdown continues.

Crystal ball 🔮

Predicted order of finish for each group. Teams that still have to advance through the playoffs to reach the World Cup are italicized.

Group A: Denmark, South Korea, Mexico, South Africa. Let's start with a surprise right from the jump, shall we? Although a lot can change in six months, at the moment, there's little reason to have faith that Mexico can utilize its theoretical home-field advantage next summer. If anything, playing on home soil in front of expectant supporters could have the opposite effect for a sputtering side that hasn't won a game since the Gold Cup final in July. Denmark, forced to navigate the European playoffs after its late qualifying collapse in Scotland, should punch its ticket, while Son Heung-min and Lee Kang-in are more than capable of causing headaches for Mexico's defense.

Group B: Italy, Canada, Switzerland, Qatar. The Italians getting through the playoffs is no guarantee after we've seen them fall on their face at that exact stage in the last two qualifying cycles. But missing three World Cups in a row? Sacrilege. Italy hasn't won a World Cup game in over a decade, but that barren run should end next year; a potential opener in Toronto could end up being like a home game for the Azzurri, while revenge will be a motivating factor against a solid but unspectacular Swiss squad following their Euro 2024 meeting. Co-host Canada is the wild card. Jesse Marsch's aggressive, quick, confident team fears nobody and genuinely believes it can accomplish far more than just registering the nation's first-ever win at a men's World Cup.

Read more: Winners and losers from World Cup draw

Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti. Brazil, the only team to appear at every World Cup, goes into each tournament with the same goal: win it all. Things are no different this time. If anything, the pressure intensified after the hiring of iconic manager Carlo Ancelotti. But pulling Morocco from Pot 2, and also having to play Africa's top team in its tournament opener, is a tough break for a Selecao squad still trying to forge an identity under the Italian bench boss. Balance remains an issue; Brazil has wide forwards and center-backs to spare, but is worryingly thin in central midfield and full-back. Morocco, a semifinalist in Qatar, can absolutely win this group.

Group D: United States, Turkey, Paraguay, Australia. The U.S. made out like bandits here. Yes, Turkey would be a very credible threat to win Group D if it advances through the playoffs - Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz are blossoming superstars. But Mauricio Pochettino's men, now on the upswing after some early growing pains under the Argentine, get to open their tournament against Paraguay and Australia, two teams they just beat in recent outings. Friendly results can sometimes be misleading, but the Americans have every possible advantage over both of those teams: overall talent, home soil, and the added confidence that comes with those aforementioned victories.

Group E: Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao. A sneaky contender for the tournament's most interesting quartet. Germany stands out as the obvious favorite, but the team is still evolving under Julian Nagelsmann. To reach its full potential, the 2014 champion needs Jamal Musiala to recover from his gruesome leg injury and Florian Wirtz to snap out of his Liverpool malaise. Even that might not be enough to break down an Ecuadorian side that's among the best defensive units in the world. Ecuador conceded just five times in 18 qualifying matches and hasn't allowed more than one goal in a single game since June 2024. The Ivorians, meanwhile, are flying under the radar with an excellent squad that nicely blends skill, size, steel, and experience.

Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia. The opening matchup in Dallas, an aesthetically pleasing June 14 clash between the Oranje and Samurai Blue, should determine who tops one of the tournament's more finely poised groups. Ronald Koeman's squad is, frankly, outstanding. If Memphis Depay, now 31, can continue delivering goals, the Netherlands are genuine contenders to win the World Cup considering the construction of the XI and the overall depth, especially in defense and midfield. We're probably all sleeping on the Dutch a little bit. That won't faze Japan's technically gifted squad, and Sweden could play spoiler if it advances through the playoffs. Keep a close eye on this group next summer.

Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand. We've all been burned by Belgium's "Golden Generation" in the past, so I understand the hesitance and skepticism surrounding the Red Devils. But the perennial tournament underachiever, now sporting a new crop of exciting young players supporting veteran talisman Kevin De Bruyne, should blitz this group. The matchup with Egypt will be a swan song of sorts for De Bruyne (who should be fit) and Mohamed Salah, two generational stars who helped define the last decade of Premier League football.

Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde. Led by Lamine Yamal, tournament favorite Spain got quite the gift here. Uruguay is a mercurial side that's scuffling right now under Marcelo Bielsa; Saudi Arabia's biggest asset is seasoned coach Herve Renard, but he can only do so much from the bench; Cape Verde, one of the smallest countries to ever qualify, simply can't overcome the talent discrepancy with Luis de la Fuente's squad. Even if Rodri isn't involved, Spain's depth - hello, Martin Zubimendi - and cohesion should comfortably overwhelm the competition in Group H.

Group I: France, Norway, Senegal, Bolivia. This is the closest thing we have to a proverbial "Group of Death" with the expanded field, but it's ... pretty damn good? The Kylian Mbappe-Erling Haaland matchup is the standout individual clash of the entire opening round, while Senegal, loaded with players who ply their trade across Europe's top leagues, will harbor memories of the nation's unforgettable upset win over Les Bleus at the 2002 World Cup. Notoriously conservative coach Didier Deschamps has vowed to evolve and unleash the full force of France's absurd collection of attacking players. If he does, this group gains even more box office appeal.

Group J: Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan. No surprises here. The reigning champion, which will return much of the core that hoisted the trophy in 2022, got a forgiving draw from the soccer gods. Ralf Rangnick's Austria, with its vigorous high press, will provide a stern test, but let's not overthink this one. Although Lionel Messi insists he hasn't made a final decision on his playing status for the World Cup, it would be truly stunning if he doesn't partake. With Messi as the center of attention, as always, Argentina should secure top spot.

Group K: Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo, Uzbekistan. Cristiano Ronaldo will be looking to wash away the bitter taste of the 2022 World Cup when he makes his record sixth (and final) tournament appearance next summer. For better or worse, Roberto Martinez won't drop him from the lineup, so Ronaldo, who'll be 41 when the competition begins, will have every opportunity to add to his 143 international goals. It won't be easy, though. Colombia is more than capable of beating Portugal to first place, DR Congo will be tricky if it emerges from the intercontinental playoff, and Uzbekistan could task rapid Manchester City defender Abdukodir Khusanov with shadowing Ronaldo when they face off in Houston.

Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama. Opening against Luka Modric and Croatia means there's no time for the Three Lions to ease into the tournament. Thomas Tuchel's men need to be sharp right from the opening whistle. The German tactician's no-nonsense approach should help in that regard. England, having come so close to winning the last two European Championships, is a genuine title contender, but any slip against an experienced Croatian side could create a nightmarish path through the knockout stage. Ghana, meanwhile, might only need one win to advance as a third-placed team and will be a very tough out for anyone.

North American notebook 🇺🇸🇨🇦

Additional thoughts on Canada and the United States.

X-factor: Christian Pulisic

Pochettino's fostered healthy internal competition by giving opportunities to several breakout players in recent months, but don't get it twisted: Pulisic remains the USMNT's best, most dynamic player. Despite only starting five matches for AC Milan this season due to various injuries, the 27-year-old is tied for the lead in Serie A scoring with seven goals. He's racked up 1.42 goals per 90 minutes and converted on 50% of his shots. His underlying numbers suggest this is unsustainable, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility that he could simply stay red-hot for another six months leading into the World Cup. If he does, the United States' chance of making real noise grows significantly.

X-factor: Health

You could apply this asterisk to every team, of course, but it's particularly relevant for Canada considering how hard the injury bug hit the squad in 2025. After missing 262 days with a torn ACL, captain and superstar Alphonso Davies made his return for Bayern Munich in the Champions League this week. That alone is reason for optimism. Right-back Alistair Johnston expects to be back on the pitch for Celtic in the new year after hamstring surgery, while standout central defender Moise Bombito continues to recover from a broken tibia. That's three quarters of Marsch's preferred back-four. If they're all 100% come the World Cup, Canada's self-belief will skyrocket.

Quick free-kicks 💥

Assorted predictions for the tournament.

New scoring record: Legendary French striker Just Fontaine's benchmark of 13 goals in a single World Cup, which has stood since 1958, is in danger. The supersized 2026 edition offers an additional game for the likes of Mbappe, Haaland, and Harry Kane to eclipse the long-standing record. The expanded tournament should also feature more mismatches where the very best strikers can feast.

Wait goes on: There's a reason nobody has successfully retained the World Cup title since Brazil accomplished the feat in 1962. Putting all the necessary pieces together just once is hard enough, let alone at consecutive events - timing, talent, form, fitness, and luck all play simultaneous roles. The stars simply don't align that often. That's why, with or without Messi, Argentina won't follow up its memorable triumph in Qatar with another crown.

Spanish dynasty: Spain authored one of the most dominant stretches in men's soccer history when it sandwiched the 2010 World Cup title between European Championship crowns in 2008 and 2012. A similar run may be on the horizon. A fortuitous draw has set the stage for Yamal and the reigning European champion to hoist the sport's most coveted trophy in North America. Right now, I'm taking Spain over England in a riveting final.

Ad breaks: Under the guise of player welfare, FIFA said it would implement three-minute hydration breaks in each half of every World Cup match next summer, regardless of the playing conditions. You don't need a Ph.D to recognize this as the governing body's latest cash grab; those interludes will be filled with ads on the broadcasts. At this point, you almost have to admire the grift. Say this for Gianni Infantino: He isn't trying to be subtle.

Betting odds 🤑

Which teams are favored to win the tournament?

⚽️ Check out all of the 2026 World Cup odds available on theScore Bet here

How'd they get here? 🎟️

For a detailed breakdown of how each team has qualified so far, tap here.

Key dates ahead 🗓️

March 23-31, 2026: World Cup qualifying playoffs
June 1-9, 2026: Pre-tournament friendly matches
June 11, 2026: World Cup opening match